Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Despite the still "Bearish" outlooks I'm hearing out here, seems that the vast majority (72%) of people polled here are admitting to reality.
Only 28% of us think safety (G-F) is the place to be the next 5 months.

Survey.jpg

Or will it be the I or F funds -- from a contrarian point of view?

Another top fund manager, trying to wake people up from their "Bear Hibernation".


RIP Bear Market.
For Now, Signs Point to More Buying.

https://www.pehalnews.in/r-i-p-bear-...uying/2321160/

Something for all you "Perma-Bears" to digest:

In the entire 70 year history of the S&P 500, whenever a 50% retracement occurred after an initial major Bear Market correction (over 20%)...we have NEVER re-tested the previous low.
Now it doesn't mean we can't go down 10%, or chop sideways for awhile...BUT it means that statistically, history says that the June bottom WAS THE BOTTOM.


- Seeking Alpha -
The June Low Was It

https://seekingalpha.com/article/453...une-low-was-it

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Something for all you "Perma-Bears" to digest:

In the entire 70 year history of the S&P 500, whenever a 50% retracement occurred after an initial major Bear Market correction (over 20%)...we have NEVER re-tested the previous low.
Now it doesn't mean we can't go down 10%, or chop sideways for awhile...BUT it means that statistically, history says that the June bottom WAS THE BOTTOM.


- Seeking Alpha -
The June Low Was It

https://seekingalpha.com/article/453...une-low-was-it

This stat has been floating around the internet, but I think it's very wrong if you look at the major bear markets of the last century...
Short term I think there's a decent chance of a higher rally high in September, but the 4100 area needs to hold.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/UJNZnrTpCLrxN1UB9

Originally Posted by Tsunami

This stat has been floating around the internet, but I think it's very wrong if you look at the major bear markets of the last century...
Short term I think there's a decent chance of a higher rally high in September, but the 4100 area needs to hold.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/UJNZnrTpCLrxN1UB9

Fingers crossed for a rally in September. Normally not a good month.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

Normally not a good month.

Yep, traditionally the worst month of the year for stocks.

Just an update to all, in my "Bullish" outlook I did state a caveat: -
"But as always, one has to keep an eye out for any "Black Swan" events that can quickly make oil prices rise again...and be ready to quickly change investment course based on that." I posted this on Whipsaw's thread last week.

So a few things...I noticed the price of gas at my favorite Gas station stopped going down, and actually went up 1 cent late last week...although it dropped back this morning.
Made me gloss the news and quickly came across a very disturbing article on how the Saudi's said that if we make nice with Iran and allow its oil on the market, they'll cut production to even that out! Uh-oh!

Oil analyst: OPEC+ reminded markets it’s the ‘central banker to crude’

Then...I checked the price of Crude...and saw that there was a 7% rise off the recent low, and that had just pierced the 2 month long downtrend.

Oil-Chart.jpg

So like I said, I am ready to be nimble with my strategy, and change course in the short term.
At the same time, my system calls for me to win "little battles" during the course of the year, until I get a few percent ahead of the major indices, then once I get to about 5% ahead of the funds, make no changes unless its a crystal clear buy/sell signal.
As of today, I'm about -5% for the year, BUT that has me Beating the F fund by 4%, Beating the C fund by 7%, Beating the I Fund by 12%, Beating the S fund by 14%.
Who whudda thought the G-fund would be the 'Fund du Jour" this year? lol.
So really I'm not supposed to budge much at this point, and just ride the "down and ups" until the end of the year.
But I haven't used an IFT yet in August and can afford to be nimble, get out at a key point, then get back in at a better price before months end, or if my hypothesis goes wrong again, due to unforeseen events.

So lets look at the S&P chart (below)
Seems that 50% retracement line was a barrier at least in the short term...or maybe more.
The recent fall has dropped all the way to fill the previous "Open Gap" from one of our big up days 2 weeks ago....and it seems to be holding around there, as its near another resistance line, as well as near the 50 & 100 Day EMA's, which are all converging near the same area.
So I would like to think this area could hold, maybe?? If so and we bounce, the 1st obstacle is the filling of the more recent "Open Gap" from just the other day, on our way down. Thats my short term exit target.
At that point, depending on what happens with Oil, with Powell speech expected later this week from Jackson, I might quickly jump back in, or stay out and wait for another downturn.
We could also be setting up for a "range-bound" sideways chopping pattern also, till oil/inflation expectations clarify.
So that's my story...and I'm stickin to it (or not) lol.

SP.jpg

RE: 50% retracement.

Michael Burry tweeted about that last week, but he's been deleting his tweets shortly after posting them so it's gone. Someone took a screenshot of it before it was erased though. I'm sure someone somewhere has posted the backtesting results of his claims.

wgasdg.JPG

Originally Posted by Bullitt

RE: 50% retracement.

Michael Burry tweeted about that last week, but he's been deleting his tweets shortly after posting them so it's gone. Someone took a screenshot of it before it was erased though. I'm sure someone somewhere has posted the backtesting results of his claims.

wgasdg.JPG

There was no SP500 back in most of those years, I think he's referring to the Dow.
And the last 1 was 54 years ago...before modern electronic trading...but agree we could still take a sharp dip.

Still bullish going into next months Fed announcement, but don't quite like the way the charts are setting up right now with possible Head & Shoulders pattern.
We have an Open Gap still to fill, 1-2% higher from here, and maybe we will fill that late today with a late day surge...but I don't like the markets edging higher BEFORE Powells speech tomorrow.
Would rather see them dropping a bit more this AM and already pricing in any bad news.

So with still all 2 IFT's in hand for Aug, will lock in this months profits of about +2% (depending on how things change from this AM), I'll do a quick exit to safety today...and be ready to play again before the last day of Aug if the "short-term danger" passes.

Leaving 50/50 S/C allocation and going 100% G COB today.

SP.jpg