Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

NYT paywall. No thanks.

Why I'm OK sitting on the G-Lilly pad with my 15%

Why the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed...?siteid=yhoof2

"The Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount."
"Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July."
"Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations."

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

"Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July."

I am not saying there isn't a slowdown as a result of increased COVID concerns but air travel does typically peak in July/early August. Once the kids start back to school, travel generally dips until Thanksgiving/Winter break. Stay safe!

Have been in safety since mid July, waiting for a big drop to the 100 day EMA, but the last few drops have been consistent to what we've seen all year, basically just down to the 50 day EMA, before making an abrupt U-turn higher.
The "rounded top" gives me a bit of worry, as does the seasonality of September, but for now, I'll roll back all in with my 1st Sep IFT (50/50 mixed in C and S), but will try to stay nimble in case this fall is finally the start of something bigger.

SP.jpg

I was thinking about going into C Fund, but completely missed the cutoff. I hope it works out for you tomorrow!

How I feel today, after moving from 100% G...into 100% S/C...COB yesterday.

Feeling Good.jpg

Doesn't it feel good to hit it just right sometimes? Congratulations!!!

Originally Posted by rangerray

Doesn't it feel good to hit it just right sometimes? Congratulations!!!

Thanks RangerRay.
You had the same idea. That cutoff time can be tricky, esp with the extra steps needed to log into ones TSP.gov account these days. I've missed many an IFT by 30 sec or so.

Hoping todays up-day holds, which would raise me into positive territory for Oct,,,using 1st IFT to sell on big upday and lock in short term profits.
So of course, since I'm selling, I'm sure we've bottomed...since I'm deviating from my system right now.

Leaving 50/50 C/S position and going 100% G COB today.

Biggest question out there...IS OUR LONG TERM SECULAR BULL MARKET OVER?
I think that's too early to answer that question...but it brings up another better question...ARE WE LONG OVERDUE FOR A CORRECTION TO THE 200 DAY MA?

That might be a better question...looking at the past several years we've dropped to that one in late 2015...2018...and 2019 (COVID).
I've highlighted those points with a circle on the chart. FYI Yahoo charts go weekly after 1 year...so if you have to look at past years individually to see the daily data.

So far, since the chart is weekly for past several years, you can see we haven't even come close yet.
Inflation Fears...Labor Shortages...US Debt Default Threat...all occurring simultaneously...a scary triple threat. Just US threatening Ceiling default back 10 years ago took us well below the 200 EMA.
And the market seemed to already bake in 3.5 Trillion stimulus package...now that is in doubt.
Well, have a look at the chart and see how far we would still have to fall to reach 200 MA (again remember this is a weekly chart... on the daily w're closer to the 100 day EMA).

SP.jpg

Let's hope we don't or at least slowly fall to the 200 Day EMA. Compared to the 3 circles the distance fallen, though bad, was not huge compared to what it would look like if that were to happen know.