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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #949

    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Washington State
    Posts
    185

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Kinda similar for me... I caved and moved 33% more from G to CSIF (more than doubling the small funds amounts in each of those). My 1st IFT in a couple months. Hope I didn't just Jinx the hopes for positivity.

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  3. #950

    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    Cape Cod
    Posts
    352

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    NAAIM came in still very bullish so the Professionals are in too.

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  5. #951

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Repositioning out of Small Caps with 2nd Dec IFT.
    Leaving 50% S and 50% C COB Today and going 60% I and 40% C.

    Going mostly I-Fund as Europe just fixed its BREXIT issue and doesn't have the political baggage we still have for a few more weeks.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  7. #952

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    For those confused about todays stock surge, it makes total sense: It makes the same sense on why stocks were a good bet after Trumps win in the 2016 election, but for different reasons.

    1) Democrats now will easily pass their additional COVID relief plan, with 2K for everyone, and aid to hard hit states....pumping another TRILLION into the economy.

    2) Major multi Trillion National Infrastructure Bill, to fix roads, buildings etc will pass this year. Reasons 1 and 2 are a LOT of added stimulus.

    3) Many perceive Democrats will more effectively deal with COVID, unblock the vaccine log-jam, and get us (and the economy) back to normal, quicker.

    4) Fed already pledged to keep rates low "forever" or in reality, for foreseeable future, until economy overheats and causes runaway inflation, which is likely a long-long way out.

    5) No more irrational "trade wars" with our biggest trading partner.

    There will likely be tax hikes down the road, and necessary, to pay for everything, including the monster deficits of the past 4 years, but thats maybe on next years docket.
    Sure, there will be times to sell stocks briefly when things get too frothy. But in general there is really no reason not to be fully invested most of the next few months...unless Lou Dobbs and Stuart Varney are ones primary source of financial mis-information.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  9. #953

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,874
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Still a lot of tail risk.

    I'm struggling with the vaccine log jam part. I don't see how either side would manage to do a better job on the rollout. Too bad Amazon hasn't thrown their hat in the ring, they'd do a better job than the army.

    If Republicans were able to pass the tax cut in one vote, Democrats might be able to repeal it and increase corporate and capital gains taxes in one vote too. Increased taxes will be a serious headwind towards stocks, IPO's, SPAC's. So will regulation. They have two years to do it, mid-terms are in two years and often the sees the presidents party lose seats in Congress.

    If rates rise while our fiscal situation deteriorates, yields will at some point become attractive making for another headwind. The 10-Year did go over 1% for the first time in a year today.

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  11. #954

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Still a lot of tail risk.

    I'm struggling with the vaccine log jam part. I don't see how either side would manage to do a better job on the rollout. Too bad Amazon hasn't thrown their hat in the ring, they'd do a better job than the army.
    its become painfully obvious that all the previous administration did was cut a big check 9 months ago for vaccine DEVELOPMENT...but did NOTHING for vaccine distribution, simply leaving it for the states.
    The big problem with that, is that it requires a huge investment in infrastructure to vaccinate 200-250 Million Americans in the next few months...and since states cannot run a deficit and print their own money, it was critical for the Feds to fund the distribution infrastructure. They did none of this.

    Thats why the Biden COVID team (which was kept out of inside briefings of Operation Warp Speed until just before the inauguration), said it has to now basically start from scratch regarding distribution, and will organize a more Federally run response, to get vaccines into every Walgreens, CVS, WalMart pharmacy, and hire hundreds of thousands of people who are qualified to administer shots.

    As long as this new federal effort doesn't get derailed in Congress (doubtful because Dems control both) it should still not have a negative effect on the market IMHO.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  13. #955

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Using 1st January IFT to do some window dressing and exit out of I fund and redistribute more towards S...hoping todays early drop and whatever our close might be could be the impetus to another move higher. Don't see any well defined topping pattern so....

    Leaving previous position of 60% I and 40% C...and shifting over to 70% S and 30% C COB today.

    Still riding the once in a decade/lifetime "Combo Express Train" of !) Multi-Trillion Dollar Stimulus AND 2) Super Low Interest Rates AND 3) Expected Recovery from Global Pandemic...all at the same time.
    DON'T FIGHT THE FED. Especially when its not just low interest rates but also massive injection of Trillions into the Economy.
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 01-25-2021 at 12:04 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  15. #956

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
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    3,874
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    46

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Last week Amazon actually offered to help distribute the vaccine.

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  17. #957

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Last week Amazon actually offered to help distribute the vaccine.
    A ton of private companies are gonna have to "help" but its up to someone to coordinate it, set timelines/deadlines quota's for delivery etc.
    Its how WW II mass war production worked...Govt't sets up contract requirements and timelines, then private companies bid and deliver what the gov't requests....paid for by the Federal Gov't (why we racked up such huge National Debt back then).
    If we just let private companies on their own, handle everything including running and funding the war production effort on their own, we'd all be speaking a combination of German and Japanese a long time ago, lol.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  19. #958

    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Location
    Bloomington, Indiana
    Posts
    322

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Up until a week after the election the drug companies werent giving a roll out date.. Kinda hard to organize a distribution network when what you are distributing could be 2 years away as the democrats were all saying. I think having some cooperation rather than sabotage would have helped immensely in trumps performance.

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  21. #959

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Using 1st March IFT to lock in profits.
    VIX near 3 month lows and our Sentiment Survey (without publicly revealing exact % for decisions) is thru the roof!

    Leaving 70% S and 30% C and going 100% G COB today.

    VIX and Sentiment.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #960

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Moving out of stocks and into safety 2 weeks ago, has somehow catapulted me past all the indices for the year (depending on how things close today) via "Addition by Subtraction".
    My system, which tries to limit moves just to stay ahead of the major indices (which I only listen to 50% of the time...so I guess its not a system-lol) says to get back in.

    Given the major rotation out of Small Caps into the better performing S&P and Dow stocks, I am leaving my 100% G position and going 100% C COB Today.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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