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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #925

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
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    Hampton Roads, VA
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    3,729

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    FWM, what are the vids? Can't get there from here... is there an upshot?
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  3. #926

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    FWM, what are the vids? Can't get there from here... is there an upshot?
    Cramer, using a chartist Carolyn Borodin (we does very nice Fibonacci analysis) says we could break either way, up or down and either one could be big. He's leaning to the upside, and today's action seems to support that, but we'll see.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #927

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Always keeping an open mind....what looked like a possible top last week, is now looking like a breakout. (see chart below)
    Never under-estimate the power of "Irrational Exuberance", despite 40 million out of work and unemployment the worst since the Great Depression, there is the growing belief (right or wrong) that we are out of it.
    I don't think thats the case at all...and normally I would not be thinking of going in, but with another free move and only 3 trading days left in the month, I might go back in, at least for a little bit.

    Fighting the "Opening of the States" AND the FED may not be a good tactic, unless the opening fails, or future jobs numbers show millions not being rehired.
    Considering going into stocks (not sure which fund yet) by todays deadline.

    SP.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  7. #928

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Always keeping an open mind....what looked like a possible top last week, is now looking like a breakout. (see chart below)
    Never under-estimate the power of "Irrational Exuberance", despite 40 million out of work and unemployment the worst since the Great Depression, there is the growing belief (right or wrong) that we are out of it.
    I don't think thats the case at all...and normally I would not be thinking of going in, but with another free move and only 3 trading days left in the month, I might go back in, at least for a little bit.

    Fighting the "Opening of the States" AND the FED may not be a good tactic, unless the opening fails, or future jobs numbers show millions not being rehired.
    Considering going into stocks (not sure which fund yet) by todays deadline.

    SP.jpg
    Did exit 100% G and went in 100% S by COB Today. 2nd May IFT.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  9. #929

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Ordinarily I hate making a move on the 1st of the month, but given the overly bullish sentiment on our SS, and a huge surge in the S fund today possibly giving me a 1%+ lock in for the month, with another chance to buy back in, I will leave the S and go into full G mode temporarily.

    Leaving 100% S and moving into 100% G COB today.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  11. #930

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Ordinarily I hate making a move on the 1st of the month, but given the overly bullish sentiment on our SS, and a huge surge in the S fund today possibly giving me a 1%+ lock in for the month, with another chance to buy back in, I will leave the S and go into full G mode temporarily.

    Leaving 100% S and moving into 100% G COB today.
    Good luck! I wonder if there will be that usual 1500 DWCPF dump. Usually seems to come around that time when it is trading above 1%.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  13. #931

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Update to previous post:

    Ordinarily I hate making a move on the 1st of the month, but given the overly bullish sentiment on our SS, and a huge surge in the S fund today possibly giving me a 1%+ lock in for the month, with another chance to buy back in, I will leave the S and go into full G mode temporarily.

    Leaving 100% S and moving into 100% G COB today.

    Sentiment Survey shot upwards with its most Bullish (i.e. Bearish) readings (by far) since February, before the Pandemic.

    Sentiment.jpg

    Indices (especially S Fund) are at recent highs, with the S especially overextended it seems.
    2 good sized open gaps below on both the C (approx 3 and 6% below) and S (approx 4 and 10% below).

    Gaps.jpg

    While everyone on TV and YouTube video seems to be bullish OUR TSPTalk "Smart Money" folks at the top of our standings have become increasingly bearish lately.
    More than half of our super gainers this year, who bravely rode the stock train from the March lows, have gotten off the train.

    SmartMoney.jpg

    And to top it off...if my "theory" holds true...there should be some sort of tweet or outlandish statement made this week, that takes indices back to those delicious open gaps in "short-order", lol.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  15. #932

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    With small caps down 2% so far today..I will be leaving 100% G position and going 100% S COB today.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  17. #933

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    What a market where one day pullbacks are considered opportunities. Crazy.

    Good luck!
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  19. #934

    Join Date
    May 2011
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    Florida
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    What a market where one day pullbacks are considered opportunities. Crazy.

    Good luck!
    Do you have data on the average # of daily IFTs on the AT, and how today compares?

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  21. #935

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    What a market where one day pullbacks are considered opportunities. Crazy.

    Good luck!
    I know, LOL! So far this rally since March has not had more than a 1-2 day pullback, before going higher. Not much time for me to admit a wrong move (getting out in early June).
    Since the Nasdaq reached new highs first, it serves to reason that the S&P and Small Caps will follow.

    I had a semi-sinking feeling that we could drop another 2-3% to fill some open gaps, and that the Fed Meeting could be the catalyst for it...but there's an equal chance the Fed gives a dovish message and we shoot higher.
    A good CNBC analyst who was bullish since April...said "Don't fight this rally...it will go higher as the economy opens up...unless (or until) the economy is forced to shut back down again".
    And with the Fed pumping in several TRILLION...it really stands to reason for us to NOT FIGHT THE REOPENING AND THE FED (for now).
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #936

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    No, unfortunately not.

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Do you have data on the average # of daily IFTs on the AT, and how today compares?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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