Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Leaving 100% G and going in 50% S, 25% C and 25% I COB today.

News Factors:
Gilead had successful clinical run of treating patients with "Moderate" COVID last week...their results of clinical trial test of "Severe" COVID patients will be announced in about a week.
Congress getting ready to pass a few more hundred BILLION in Small Business aid this week.
Daily Deaths in US of COVID dropping off significantly the past 3 days, as are new cases, esp in NYC.
Some states opening up some businesses today, others on May 1 (11 days away) others on May 15th. Some European countries and Japan opening up also.
A European Rx company says it is hoping to have a vaccine ready by September...they're getting ready to have mass production in place now, so that if final tests are conclusive by September, they can start making millions of doses right away.

With all these things coming up, I don't see an immediate catalyst to knock stocks back down too far, other than a 1-2 day drop...but nothing to new lows.
So with us only having 8 trading days left in April after today...with stocks negative to neutral as of noon EDT...I thought this was as good a time as any to go in.

And an important study out of Stanford indicates much wider spread with little to no symptoms and a resultant mortality rate of ~0.12 - 0.2%, very much the same as the seasonal flu.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...-clara-county/

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

And an important study out of Stanford indicates much wider spread with little to no symptoms and a resultant mortality rate of ~0.12 - 0.2%, very much the same as the seasonal flu.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...-clara-county/

Yes I saw that study. It would be interesting, and good news if verified nationally and globally. "Herd" immunity may be already happening, making a vaccine moot by next flu season.

The one danger I often see, when people try to compare COVID to the regular flue, is we don't know how many "silent carriers" are with the flu because we do NOT test for who has antibodies for it, mainly because so many Americans get flu shots, most of us have it.

The one thing researchers have found, is that COVID-19 is both more contagious, and its symptoms and duration much more severe than the regular flu. We've only had it in widespread numbers the last 5 weeks, missing out 80% of the traditional flu season, and we've already exceeded the normal fatality total numbers of the regular flu (42,000+ dead). and thats WITH national lockdown/shutdown quarantines in place.
What would the total deaths be if this thing came out at the start of flu season (October) and was in full force Dec-Jan-Feb, AND we had NO lockdown/shutdowns in place, just like regular flu seasons.

Thats why I don't pay much attention to anything that tries to say its like the "regular flu". But I do hope the study is correct, regarding number of silent carriers.

Using 2nd April IFT to just do some minor hoesekeeping, in terms of staying fully invested.
Changed previous allocation of 50% S...25% C...25% I, which if todays numbers hold, should give a profit of near 6% for the month of April AND put me positive for the year...and going full 100% S COB today, as that continues to have the hot hand, is a bit behind the C fund from resistance targets.

1st May IFT shifting from 100% S...into 100% G COB today.
Locking in 2.84% May profits (plus or minues whatever today brings) and return to positive YTD (hopefully)...will wait for a lower price to possibly jump back in shortly...but I don't know how much higher this can go....don't want to be a "Pig that gets slaughtered".

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

1st May IFT shifting from 100% S...into 100% G COB today.
Locking in 2.84% May profits (plus or minues whatever today brings) and return to positive YTD (hopefully)...will wait for a lower price to possibly jump back in shortly...but I don't know how much higher this can go....don't want to be a "Pig that gets slaughtered".

Whew!!!

Good technical AND economical philosophical discussion from PivotPoint.

Funny on how most of the financial channels I'm seeing the indices charts "stretched out" like the S&P on the bottom of below image.
But off our quick look charts, it appears to very clearly be a high amplitude crowning top forming on all the major indices (C and S fund charts shown on top, side-by side). Namely near the 200 Day Exponential Moving Averages

Me thinks...Look Out Below!

C and S Fund.jpg

Of course, I just jumped in!

Crazy how different a chart can look with the smallest manipulation huh