Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

A really good, detailed analysis from one of the top financial analysts in the country.

Interesting video. But is anybody listening?

With only one move left, have some decisions to make.
F fund dropped 1.5% yesterday, and despite stocks being down big, its falling again. Perhaps those low bond prices are now catching up to the masses who first flocked to it and drove its prices up.
Part of me wants to go into the G fund and ride this out, but my system is strongly telling me to go back into stocks, being ahead of the C and S fund by 12-15% if current prices hold
Being that we seem to be "chopping" into another flag, I am tempted to risk going into stocks now, on a sharp down day, to see if I can get a positive chop tomorrow, then get out into the G for the rest of the month (maybe),
or stick to my system, which says if we're past this crisis 3-5 months from now, then it would be a huge winning move. Will decide in the next 23 minutes.

FWIW. A lot of those talking heads calling for another 10-20% drop were very bullish just a few weeks ago.

In trying to get out of the F and not waste a move (we always have a safety move back to G), I'm going in on a (hopefully) huge down day.
Leaving 100% F and going into 100% C COB Today,
Hoping to catch the seemingly normal 2-4% upswings in the choppy flag formations (see below chart), and then will make another decision whether to stay put, or head for the hills (G-fund) for the rest of March.
Good luck everyone.

SP.jpg

Yeah I went from 100% C to 100% F yesterday which worked out pretty good to get out!
today I am migrating to the G fund and hoping to get a little lift at the end of the day.


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Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

In trying to get out of the F and not waste a move (we always have a safety move back to G), I'm going in on a (hopefully) huge down day.
Leaving 100% F and going into 100% C COB Today,
Hoping to catch the seemingly normal 2-4% upswings in the choppy flag formations (see below chart), and then will make another decision whether to stay put, or head for the hills (G-fund) for the rest of March.
Good luck everyone.

SP.jpg

Well, that tactic went over like a lead balloon. lol
Was right on the 2nd Bear Flag but instead of the bear Flag continuing for a few more days like previously it was a quick flag-pole free-fall to a lower leg.
The only thing that prevented me from just getting out today and staying 10-15% ahead of the stock funds, is that this downward leg is about as long as the previous 2 legs, all of which has at least 1-2 big up days, before falling again. I didn't want to sell at a panic short term bottom. But I plan on getting out tomorrow if we jump higher.

I have no illusions of being near our final bottom by the end of March. I'm thinking a total downturn of 60% (like 2008-09 and 2000-2002) appears likely...but at a much faster rate.
I'm sure there will be a decent but temporary 10-20% retracement once new cases peak later this spring, but thats still way off. And gov't response has been inept at best....so don't see any help from WH, Congress, or FED mattering much here. Its about the virus and steady shutdown of our economic engine...Consumer Spending.
Good luck all.

SP.jpg

Well, staying put and not selling in yesterday panic may pay off a little.
Taking whatever gains the market gives today, and running to the hills for the rest of the month.
Leaving 100% C and going into 100% G COB Today.
See you guys in April...maybe. lol

WHEW!!!
Keeping a cool head and not selling yesterday paying off better than I imagined.
Lost over 9% yesterday, but gained over 9% back today...putting me positive for the month of March...and cashing those chips in as I check into the "G-Hotel" for the rest of the month.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

WHEW!!!
Keeping a cool head and not selling yesterday paying off better than I imagined.
Lost over 9% yesterday, but gained over 9% back today...putting me positive for the month of March...and cashing those chips in as I check into the "G-Hotel" for the rest of the month.

Looks like we make back just shy of yesterdays loss. I'm think that's requires a double

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

WHEW!!!
Keeping a cool head and not selling yesterday paying off better than I imagined.
Lost over 9% yesterday, but gained over 9% back today...putting me positive for the month of March...and cashing those chips in as I check into the "G-Hotel" for the rest of the month.

I'm happy for you!

Now, don't get lured off of the Lily Pad any time soon! You are now positive. Therefore, be extremely careful attempting to catch any bounce or you just might find yourself sunk again.

Some grim numbers regarding the average and more importantly, the median 401K balances nationwide, by age group.
And this was in January, BEFORE the crash.

https://www.thestreet.com/retirement...HOO&yptr=yahoo