Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Wow, the F-fund? Do you think 10-year yield will go below 1%? It's heading that way, but seems unbelievable.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Wow, the F-fund? Do you think 10-year yield will go below 1%? It's heading that way, but seems unbelievable.

That's where I also headed back to. It'll be the fund of 2020.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Wow, the F-fund? Do you think 10-year yield will go below 1%? It's heading that way, but seems unbelievable.

Interesting point Tom. To be honest, I may have been projecting a Last Month, Best Month methodology without fully thinking it through. I was expecting to stay in stocks since I was about 2 to 3% above the C & S funds and that would suit me well going into the second half of the year. BUT SEEING THE BRIEF MORNING RALLY RESPONSE TO THE BIG FED MOVE FADE JUST AS QUICKLY, GAVE ME ONLY A FEW MINUTES BEFORE TODAY'S DEADLINE TO MAKE A DECISION ABOUT GETTING OUT OF MY EQUITIES POSITION, WHICH I ENTERED LAST WEEK, AND GOING BACK INTO SAFETY. Maybe G would have been a better play. Lol, not sure why part of my message ended up in CAPS ☺️

So far very happy with my move into the F fund 2 days ago.
Gain the last 2 days should be well over 0.50%.
Did miss yesterdays big rally, but avoiding todays total giveaway in what seems like another "Falling Knife".

This late mornings chart clip of the charts is already a little outdated, as indices have dropped another full percent since this analysis an hour ago...but seems to me that a "Bear Flag" has formed up, and that we are primed for another big leg downward.
Also noticed that we have closed below the 200 Day EMA 4 out of the last 6 days (incl todays projection). Thats serious technical damage, and tends to make me believe this is indeed a Bear Flag, instead of a "Spikey Recovery".

SP.jpg

Looks like we started our next knife downwards off the "Bear Flag" as seen on chart off of my previous post.

So far, setting up in the F fund a week ago has been absolute salvation. Not just for my account, but for my mental well-being.
Speaking of F-Fund, which earned a 1 day return of +1.04% last Friday, when has anyone ever seen a +1% Daily Return off of it? I never remembered that, not even during the financial crisis 11-12 years ago??

Will continue to stay put on my "F-antasy Island" perch a bit longer, but will consider dipping briefly into stocks if we extend the current drop to the length of the previous downward flag-pole.

F Fund.jpg

I'm 40% in th "F", rest in the "G". The "F" is acting NNUUTS! That's my Technical Analysis!

Originally Posted by nnuut

I'm 40% in th "F", rest in the "G". The "F" is acting NNUUTS! That's my Technical Analysis!

That's exactly why I bailed to (G). But, I am usually a day early or a day late with my IFT's. I'll be right on time if (F) is down tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Rod

That's exactly why I bailed to (G). But, I am usually a day early or a day late with my IFT's. I'll be right on time if (F) is down tomorrow.

Mama always said "Better early than late".

This is what todays carnage looked like, if you would assign a song to it.

"Let The Bodies Hit The Floor"

Thanks...I used to like that song

A really good, detailed analysis from one of the top financial analysts in the country.