Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

You can always go partial stocks (50/50, 25/75, etc) if you're not committed. Hedging with some F-fund could protect against any further downside in stocks.

Good Point Tom...if today started as a big up day, I would have used a 3rd monthly move to phase back into 50% G and 50% S, which we can do in a 3rd, 4th, or 5th monthly move.
Feel there is another leg (or more) down, just trying to be there for the next short trend upward.

Happy with my last IFT, entering stocks with a 50-50 split of S&C on May 31st.

After eating a 1% loss the last day of May, I am up close to 4% for June ( if current price action holds). Locking that in for now, with 1st June IFT shifting back to 100% G COB today.

It is rare to have the market continue going up more than 4-5 straight days of moderate to strong gains without some pullback.
Given trade uncertainties with Mexico and China, and stock gains on weak conomic data (poor jobs report) which usually serves as only a short-term stock boost to garner a future rate cut, I feel that there is a good chance to buy back into stocks at a lower price then now, sometime later next week, or later this month.

Good luck to everyone.

Whoa!!!!!

Don't think I've EVER seen a ratio this high.

Sentiment.jpg

Helene Meisler noticed it yesterday on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1143262683300605952
SHe said:

"I have not looked at this sentiment survey in years but inadvertently clicked on it just now. WOW. WOW.
https://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php.

First question would be, how many people are participating in the survey compared to years past?

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Whoa!!!!!

Don't think I've EVER seen a ratio this high.

Sentiment.jpg

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

First question would be, how many people are participating in the survey compared to years past?

Second question is what do allocations on the tracker say? Per Ocean's List, nothing like the sentiment survey.

All members combined averages	Returns %	G %	F %	C %	S %	I %	L2050	L2040	L2030	L2020	Income
Total members: 1285	10.34	38.63	6.68	16.29	27.76	5.74	2.01	0.45	0.84	0.78	0.83

Close to 50% invested in stocks currently, BUT remember the Sentiment is what you think will occur the following week. SO what were people invested in last week might be more relevant since thats when the vote was taken.
Also, people who are out of stocks (F,G) but are feeling left behind in the rally and want to jump in before its too late (the Dumb Money) often vote Bulllish even though they might still be in Safety. So I don't think dismising the SS based on current allocations is valid. IMHO

As for how many vote in Sentiment now compared to before, well I don't have those numbers (Tom probably does) but I have no reason to think its less, so probably more, given we have more members, thus a larger sample population.

Is this still a contrarian signal, bullish being bearish for stocks? Or, as CH pointed out some time ago, we may be more smart money than otherwise.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Is this still a contrarian signal, bullish being bearish for stocks? Or, as CH pointed out some time ago, we may be more smart money than otherwise.

Good question. I still think Bearish, but Ive noticed whenever we hit this very Bullish level lately (near or above 60), its usually 2 weeks later that the "Big Kibosh" happens, not so much the following week, which it was designed for.
Anyway, I am leaving safety and going from 100% G...into 50% C and 50% S COB today. Just a 1-3 day move probably, but we'll see.

Maybe I'll stay in stocks a little bit longer?



As long as the 5 day EMA stays above the 13 day EMA?

SP.jpg