Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

With most other indices struggling but S still having a huge day (so far) will start to shift towards defense and protect 6-7% monthly gains (depending how things finish today).
Using 2nd IFT to leave 100% S position and go 50F and still remain 50 S.
Next move would be waiting to see if things boil over, then move remaining S into G. Or not, if things continue to climb.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

With most other indices struggling but S still having a huge day (so far) will start to shift towards defense and protect 6-7% monthly gains (depending how things finish today).
Using 2nd IFT to leave 100% S position and go 50F and still remain 50 S.
Next move would be waiting to see if things boil over, then move remaining S into G. Or not, if things continue to climb.

Congrats on a great start to 2019 FWM. You are definitely due. All the best going forward.

Getting a feeling from the charts that the F fund is due, which is usually (but not always) in line with equities reversing somewhat, at least in the short term.

A look at the latest F Bond Chart shows what seems to be a developing breakout with a Bull Flag forming.

F-Fund.jpg

A longer (3 year) look at the F shows that the current level is still WAY BELOW where it was.
If this was the S&P chart, it would seem like a bottom was in and a strong buy.
So that's part of why I'm shifting 50% of my allocation from S to F. But still leaving half my toes in the water, which will be a day by day decision from here.

F Fund 3 Year.jpg

Shifting more into defense, protecting 7% monthly gains.

Using 3rd January IFT to shift remaining S fund amounts into G (leaving other 50% intact in F fund).

Have waited on the sidelines too long. Will be wary that this a "dumb money" way to think, so this could be a short term trade, with 2 trades available this month (before this move).
Going in 50% S and 50% I as of COB Today. Was watching some analysts on CNBC and Bloomberg pointing out that Europe and Asia are poised to follow our breakout.

Also aware of the sky-high numbers in recent Sentiment Survey, and will be wary of any forming tops.
Next Fed meeting scheduled for end of month...which could lead to speculation of a rate hike if market and economy are booming, so am prepared to make this a short term trade if necessary.

Wary of staying in stocks too long, with VIX at multi-year lows, our Sentiment Survey sky high, and Fed meeting time.
Thought of leaving for G or F, but decided to stay in equities via I Fund. Fed announcement should not be as big an impact on them, as Europe and Asia monetary policy is more relaxed there.
We'll see.

Exited 50% S and 50% I position, and going 100% I COB today, into May.

In wake of trade talk uncertianties (which still have a week to go before anything happens or doesn't happen) coinciding with all-time highs, and very high Sentiment Survey levels, using 1st May IFT to seek shelter.

Leaving 100% I position and gong into 100% G COB today.

An interesting chart analysis done in the wake of todays sell-off.

I don't think todays rally marks the end of the Trade War stock decline.

From the article below:
"The Chinese government has struck a defiant tone since President Trump ratcheted up the trade war on Friday by raising tariffs on Chinese exports worth $200 billion a year. “If the U.S. wants to talk, our door is open,” said a commentary on state-controlled China Central Television on Monday night that quickly went viral. “If the U.S. wants to fight, we’ll be with them till the end.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/14/b...gtype=Homepage

China needs us to buy from them, they are in a slow down, they have been having layoffs since last yr. we don't really need them. The President knows this.
https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/chin...ts-employment/

The layoffs in the internet industry are visible, but the mass job losses in the manufacturing industry have not attracted enough attention. China’s manufacturing industry is sending out a series of worrying employment signals: Foxconn, the contract manufacturing giant, is reportedly set to cut 340,000 jobs worldwide and cut RMB 20 billion (around $3 billion) in spending in 2019. In November, a study of Tencent Technology found that Foxconn had less time for overtime work. According to a worker at Foxconn’s Shenzhen Guanlan Technology Park, the queue time for a meal was more than 20 minutes during the peak period of 130,000 to 140,000 workers in the factory last year; however, since the number of workers has been reduced to 70,000 to 80,000 recently, remaining employees don’t have to wait that long for a meal. “In the past, thousands of workers flowed in and out every day, but now, there are thousands of people leaving every day, but the factory is not hiring anymore,” the worker recounted.

And as new college graduates flock to the job market, the pressure on total employment will also increase. Lu Aihong, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said recently that the number of college graduates in 2019 is expected to be 8.34 million, an increase of 140,000 over the previous year.

Originally Posted by Valkyrie

China needs us to buy from them, they are in a slow down, they have been having layoffs since last yr. we don't really need them. The President knows this.
https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/chin...ts-employment/

The layoffs in the internet industry are visible, but the mass job losses in the manufacturing industry have not attracted enough attention. China’s manufacturing industry is sending out a series of worrying employment signals: Foxconn, the contract manufacturing giant, is reportedly set to cut 340,000 jobs worldwide and cut RMB 20 billion (around $3 billion) in spending in 2019. In November, a study of Tencent Technology found that Foxconn had less time for overtime work. According to a worker at Foxconn’s Shenzhen Guanlan Technology Park, the queue time for a meal was more than 20 minutes during the peak period of 130,000 to 140,000 workers in the factory last year; however, since the number of workers has been reduced to 70,000 to 80,000 recently, remaining employees don’t have to wait that long for a meal. “In the past, thousands of workers flowed in and out every day, but now, there are thousands of people leaving every day, but the factory is not hiring anymore,” the worker recounted.

And as new college graduates flock to the job market, the pressure on total employment will also increase. Lu Aihong, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said recently that the number of college graduates in 2019 is expected to be 8.34 million, an increase of 140,000 over the previous year.

Well, I wasn't expressing an opinion. I was talking price, not politics.
Namely, that it is hard not to see more lower lows under the atmosphere that both sides are saying they will fight to the end, and niether are scheduled to meet for another month.

From an economic point of view, this move was 15-20 years overdue. But now with us at full employment, we don't have nearly enough people to fill a few million manufacturing jobs, unles we want to see a few million other jobs go away.
Or unless we want to bring in several million more immigrants to fill those jobs.
Food for thought.

In the meantime for investing purposes thru the next 2-3 weeks, I have a hard time seeing a surge back to recent highs.