Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Re calibrating for June. Went in 100% S...COB today.

Have been out of stocks for nearly 2 months, and with inverse head and shoulders (see Tom's latest discussion) there is a decent chance of a breakout...or a brief downward retest of recent lows followed by upside.
Since my system is based on staying in stocks unless there is a clear topping pattern, I will shift in, and chose S because if we're breaking out, it might have more upside potential than the C.
If we just have a few days run-up while climbing the "wall of worry" leading to June Fed Rate Hike possibility, then being invested going into June allows the luxury of getting out of stocks briefly, then re-entering at lower price. That was actually the deciding factor behind todays IFT.
We'll see how it plays out.

Am very happy with decision to go into the S Fund on the last day of May. Up 2% MTD plus whatever today brings (or not).

Being invested gives the luxury of stepping aside briefly and still getting in. With us being new all time highs and up 7 of 8 days on the S-fund...I think this is a good opportunity to gain a bit of ground on the funds by stepping out and quickly buying back at a lower price.

So I'm out...100% G COB today.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Am very happy with decision to go into the S Fund on the last day of May. Up 2% MTD plus whatever today brings (or not).

Being invested gives the luxury of stepping aside briefly and still getting in. With us being new all time highs and up 7 of 8 days on the S-fund...I think this is a good opportunity to gain a bit of ground on the funds by stepping out and quickly buying back at a lower price.

So I'm out...100% G COB today.

Nice play FWM!

One day out...and now back in...100% S COB today.
It looked like a 0.50% gain on the S Fund (it being down first few hrs of trading day)...but you never know if dip buyers mess it up by the end of the day.

But my system calls for me to quickly get back in...so I'm listening.
If S can stay down and finish negative...I can move into the top 100 on the Tracker, since I'll bypass the 100 or so stampeders in the S herd. lol

When the "Brexit Surprise" caused the panic selloff a week ago...I stood pat....avoided the idea to get out....because my system was telling me to stand pat.
I told a few people that its not worth jumping out because we might recover in 3 days...3 weeks or 3 months....and you have to be on the "upside train" when it starts, otherwise you've lost not once...but twice.

Well, I do have to admit that the "3 days" was just a metaphor....but here we are....recovered 70-90% of our losses depending on which stock fund.

Good call FWM! Me too.

Pat :-)

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

When the "Brexit Surprise" caused the panic selloff a week ago...I stood pat....avoided the idea to get out....because my system was telling me to stand pat.
I told a few people that its not worth jumping out because we might recover in 3 days...3 weeks or 3 months....and you have to be on the "upside train" when it starts, otherwise you've lost not once...but twice.

Well, I do have to admit that the "3 days" was just a metaphor....but here we are....recovered 70-90% of our losses depending on which stock fund.

AGG/F-Fund just hit the upper trendline resistance on the weekly chart extending several years. It is overextended -- my guess it will reverse from here. A lot of money is about to come off the sidelines, coinciding with a general market feeling of fear and uncertainty from the Brexit blip. IMHO, there is about to be a breakout in stocks... unless a there's another unexpected man-made event.

Hindsight is a gift foresight is a gamble.

Up 7 of 9 Days...at new highs...VIX near lowest levels in 10 months...my system says O-U-T!

Maybe just short term.

100% G COB Today (Exiting from 100% S)

Nice job, FWM!

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Nice job, FWM!

Thanks Tom.

Well...we'll see. My guess is that we'd see a brief drop in the next 1-3 days...but if the breakout train takes off from here then might have to wait 1-3 months to get my buy back price. I get most worried during times like this when I'm out, than when I'm in...keeping parity with the stock funds, even if they are dropping.