Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Things seem to be playing out to Jim Cramers script.

Monday night he said its time to take $$ off the table...not liking the political headwinds....and advising to not try and pre-time the CR and Debt Ceiling solutions, but rather wait for them.

Then yesterday he basically said that the sell-off confirmed his beliefs, but also confirmed that we will bounce back quickly when all is settled, because with all the issues, including DC shootout, in past years we would have sold off 2-3% on a day like that....instead of just under -1%.

But he also said we ere not done...and that Friday would likely bring a brief suckers rally. (which 24 hrs later did indeed verify...right on cue)

"Stocks will probably bounce on Friday, as they often do on Fridays when the short sellers fear that we could get a deal over the weekend. That's how it always is with these political fights."

But Cramer expects gains to be short lived. "I'm not expecting a deal," Cramer said. "And if I'm right and none comes, the selling will just start all over again on Monday."

Read All Below (link)

Cramer: Stock market could get very ugly - Yahoo Finance

Cramer reaffirms what I've been thinking. We've seen this political script before...nothing gets done until the market free-falls for a few days (with everyone's 401K's).
I wouldn't be surprised if most of the staffers in Boehners and Reids offices are snoozing, with the alarm clock set to go off only when the S&P falls down past 1630.

When did anyone on this site start listening to Jim Cramer? I thought he was a contrarian indicator.

Originally Posted by jkenjohnson

When did anyone on this site start listening to Jim Cramer? I thought he was a contrarian indicator.

Well, so far on this scenario, and our openning bell...Cramer is 3 for 3.

You might be thinking of the guy who comes on just after him on CNBC...Larry Kudlow.

Jumped back in...50% S and 50% I to take effect COB today.
Tough in this news driven scenario, but it did fulfill the trend of the charts. If you saw my earlier posts that were from a month ago, the current cycle had us at a top sometime late Sep to early Oct.
We've been nearly 2 week into the downtrend, which is near the average length of our downtrends in this current cycle.

Major reversal yesterday based on rumor...but...the deadline for a deal is fast approaching...so a deal cannot wait for another week.
In addition, it seems the mainstream GOP has thrown the Tea Party under the bus...so there is now way that a deal won't be reached. I do expect some setbacks today and over the weekend, maybe leading to another brief panic selloff either late today before markets close (preferred scenario) or on Monday. Either way, both sides will use this weekend to re-state their case on the Sunday political talk show circuits...but its apparent the big $$ boys (Jamie Dimon types) have been on the phone to both sides telling them to cut the $h!t now.

VIX seems to have cemented its peak and found a comfortable downtrend. So getting back to the charts...under the trend, looking for a new high on S&P of near 1750 by early Nov. (below). That's a 3% increase from current levels so it doesn't make sense being on the sidelines any longer, even if another down day briefly occurs Monday...because on the other hand, if a deal is signed over the weekend it would make the markets jump big again.
Liking the returns of the I fund lately thanks to US dollar values...so will allocate half my $$ there....rest in S....and hope for the best.

S&P.jpg

The nice thing about triangles or wedges is that anything indecisive builds compression, once released we have strong moves as things begin to unwind - and this time it will be to the upside with a higher probability of success.

Took some off the table today...was previously allocated fully in stocks...50%S and 50% I.
IFT to take effect COB Today will be 50% I and 50% G.

Reasons are:

At new highs, very parabolic, straight up....overshooting upper peak trend-line.
See S fund Chart below (used Willshire 4500).

S Fund.jpg


Sentiment Survey just missed a sell signal by an inch yesterday...58 Bulls 30 Bears.
That's the closest its come to a sell in several months.

Sentiment.PNG

Also, some people who I consider the "smart money" over the past few years began exiting yesterday.

However, sometimes the wall of worry leads to a climb higher...so will leave half my money in...the -I- Fund portion...just in case the wall of worry gives us a better climb, or if international markets don't get spooked right away from a bad US housing or jobs number, due out next Tue. That could be a "sell the news", no matter what the news, type day.

On the flip side, I think we were headed for 1740-1750 on the S&P in late Sept...but got stopped just short by politics. If we had hit 1740 back then the new trend-line peak would be near 1770.
Just another reason for keeping 50% in stocks for now.

I guess I'm going to have to stop voting bullish so as to not tarnish the results.

Bailed today from 50% I / 50% G.
Will be 100% G COB Today.

1740-1750 was a possible short term market top barometer via the S&P for me...feeling is that bad jobs news = good QE news will be a short lived sugar high now that we are well at new market highs, and QE has already been pretty much priced in.
Wall St Big Boys may start locking in profits very soon, so that they can buy in lower in a few weeks.

If I fund holds today, should be looking at near 3.4-3.5% gain for October. I'm good with that.
Plan on getting back in early Nov if we go into our typical 5-8 day downturn of 2-3%.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Bailed today from 50% I / 50% G.
Will be 100% G COB Today.

1740-1750 was a possible short term market top barometer via the S&P for me...feeling is that bad jobs news = good QE news will be a short lived sugar high now that we are well at new market highs, and QE has already been pretty much priced in.
Wall St Big Boys may start locking in profits very soon, so that they can buy in lower in a few weeks.

If I fund holds today, should be looking at near 3.4-3.5% gain for October. I'm good with that.
Plan on getting back in early Nov if we go into our typical 5-8 day downturn of 2-3%.

Great call hanging in I fund through today!

Originally Posted by Khotso

Great call hanging in I fund through today!

Thanks Khotso. Seems I'm like a broken clock...exactly right twice a day...way off most of the rest of the time (lol)

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Thanks Khotso. Seems I'm like a broken clock...exactly right twice a day...way off most of the rest of the time (lol)

I don't know about that -- you're looking pretty good on the tracker compared to me. BTW, your I fund timing looks like even better today!

From Late October

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Bailed today from 50% I / 50% G.
Will be 100% G COB Today.

1740-1750 was a possible short term market top barometer via the S&P for me...feeling is that bad jobs news = good QE news will be a short lived sugar high now that we are well at new market highs, and QE has already been pretty much priced in.
Wall St Big Boys may start locking in profits very soon, so that they can buy in lower in a few weeks.

If I fund holds today, should be looking at near 3.4-3.5% gain for October. I'm good with that.
Plan on getting back in early Nov if we go into our typical 5-8 day downturn of 2-3%.

Zzzzzzzzz........Yeeeaaawwn (lol)

Was anybody surprised today?
Wondering why the market fell off the cliff, with no major bad news?
Despite that QE is still intact and safer than ever?

Its because Wall St Big Money decided today was the day to drop the hammer. That's all.
Even CNBC was struggling to find the news that fit the market drop. I'm sure FOX will say its because of Obamacare.
But there is no news. None. This is simply a manipulated game...where mutual fund managers want your buy and hold $$ on a regular basis, while they pump and dump.
Then they buy in again at a lower price. Which is when you want to be getting in.

For anybody foolish enough to follow me, I will post some analysis and strategies later tonight of how and when I plan to buy back in.

FWM