Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

... as well as the "Oscar Carboni Special" indicator (100 Day EMA lol)

I think it's the 86-day.

You think maybe we'll double top in May - June and then head for that 'scary' gap?

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

You think maybe we'll double top in May - June and then head for that 'scary' gap?

That is a possibility I was looking at. Depends on how high oil gets, if oil goes above a 100, inflation will rise a bit and rate cuts that were baked into the market likely won't happen.

Still some time on that though.

As explained yesterday, I'm rolling the other 50% of my dry powder into stocks COB today.
Going 50% C and 50% S COB today.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Now that we're approaching the 1st open Gap on the S&P as well as the "Oscar Carboni Special" indicator (100 Day EMA lol) I'm getting ready to throw my other 50% into stocks.

There is a scary open gap way, way down from there, I don't think our economic situation has deteriorated enough to take us down there (yet). We'll see what the future brings.

Could be some wild intraday swings if we plunge quickly another half percent to fill that gap, (or 1% to reach the 100 EMA) then see a sharp upward bounce from there.

Fasten your seatbelts...see chart below.

SP.jpg

Originally Posted by tsptalk

I think it's the 86-day.

You know, after you said this, I just had to recalculate and re-map.
Talk about hitting a bulls-eye with the EMA and gap fill.
A quick 0.5% dip at the start of Fri trading should fill the gap and touch Oscar's "Happy Line"...and trigger big PM reversal. We are overdue....down 4 days in a row and 7 of 8.
Hopefully Oscar (and me) are jumping with joy by COB Friday.

SP.jpg

Well, had to wait one more day to start jumping for joy, but jumping for joy I am, as a good plan came to fruition.
Another couple of things that may help continue the uptrend.

1) Massive 95 Billion Military Aid package to Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan passed its most difficult hurdle, getting an actual vote in the House. It should breeze thru the Senate and get signed immediately by the President.
Regardless of where one stands politically on the issue, the economic impact will be huge for the US (and equities) as 90% of that money stays here in the US and goes to build new weapons, from artillery shells, to HIMARS, ATACMS, Armored vehicles, taniks etc...
So you can think of it as an 80-86 Billion dollar instant stimulus for the US economy, and that should help negate any Recession threat, minimal as it was even before this.

2) Number of Americans getting a tax refund estimated to be up this year to 40% (from 36% last year). So nearly half of Americans will suddenly have hundreds of dollars (or more) to spend. This is more shorter term but still counts as the amount is in the Billions.
Otherwise the gap fill (and Oscars 'Proprietary" 86 day MA) acted like solid barriers, where the falling market turned and surged, like a scolded dog.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

You know, after you said this, I just had to recalculate and re-map.
Talk about hitting a bulls-eye with the EMA and gap fill.
A quick 0.5% dip at the start of Fri trading should fill the gap and touch Oscar's "Happy Line"...and trigger big PM reversal. We are overdue....down 4 days in a row and 7 of 8.
Hopefully Oscar (and me) are jumping with joy by COB Friday.

SP.jpg