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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #985

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    650

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    And yet, all investors need to hear is that the federal government has their backs and the bull market continues on.


    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  3. #986

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Hard to time a bottom, but sometimes a "Temporal" analysis is better than a "Technical" one (trying to guestimate if the 50, 100 or 200 MA will be the bottom).
    Since our most recent market top (Record High) on Sep 2nd we seem to have bottomed on Oct 4 (actually a double bottom). We've not had anything near month long drop since a 3 1/2 week drop mid Feb to early March.

    So will roll the dice a bit, risk a bit more downtrend maybe, but not miss the early part of a possible bounce back (which tend to have the biggest up-days).
    Using 2nd IFT of October to leave 100% G position and go 50% C and 50% S COB today.


    SP.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% C (as of COB 12/29/2021) 1st December IFT

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  5. #987

    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Washington State
    Posts
    158

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Best-O-Trading to ya FWM! (URRGGG)... I wanted to go in some today (not as deep as you, but that's relative to me) after looking at daily Market-Talk, etc., then busy with work & missed the IFT by 1 or 2 minutes. Thanks for posting your charts & thoughts here!

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  7. #988

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Recognizing a technical bottom on the charts has paid off...remembering the "Cramer-ism" of "Don't Fall in Love With the Downside".
    Left the safety of cash, and jumped back into stocks on Oct 12th.

    SP.jpg

    This has been a nice ride for almost a month. A few times, I was tempted to jump ship but I try to remember the motto "Climbing the Wall of Worry".

    WallofWorry.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% C (as of COB 12/29/2021) 1st December IFT

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  9. #989

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    650

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Good play!


    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

  10.  
  11. #990

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    After todays big push in the S fund this AM...and another monthly IFT in hand, decided to briefly exit and lock in profits.
    Kinda risky, with the Fed speech today, but feel that it could be a "Sell the News" if its dovish good news, or the start of steeper drop due to profit-taking if its more pessimistic.
    Either way, up 7% in 3 weeks seems like a good time to lock in. Feel any downturn would be short...less than a week, before a rise to new highs, so I'll stay nimble and expect to get back in pretty soon.
    Unless the Fed says.....

    So using 1st Nov IFT to exit 50/50 C/S...and go 100% G COB today.
    CURRENTLY 100% C (as of COB 12/29/2021) 1st December IFT


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  13. #991

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Been out of the market since early Nov, locking in over 2% gains those 1st few days.
    Now, with slight pullbacks last few days esp on small caps, where S fund is down almost 5% from its recent highs, and more importantly, down past 4 straight days, it might be time to get back in for what is usually a good, low volume time seasonally. Was going to go all into the C, but with the S plunging so much recently, and hitting its 50 Day MA (see chart below) thought that some of the best short term gains this holiday week might be in the small caps. We'll see.
    Leaving 100% G and going 50/50 C and S COB today.

    S- Fund.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% C (as of COB 12/29/2021) 1st December IFT

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  15. #992

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Tried sticking to a new system this year...one that during a Bull Market stays mostly "IN" equities, and just exits once every month or 2 at or near short term market peaks, for 2-5 days...but sometimes longer if the "peak" keeps rising. Used a combo of VIX and Sentiment Survey, along with chart patterns to determine those short term peaks.

    The verdict...well...mixed.
    If you had told me back last January 2021 that at the end of the year the S-Fund would be up 12%, and that I would be beating the S by nearly 8%, I would have imagined this system working beyond my wildest dreams, and that maybe I'd even be getting one of those cool coffee mugs for finishing at the top of the Tracker (lol)!

    But...my mistake, and my weakness, was not knowing what the right fund would be to target, and stay in most of the time. Given that the S-fund has been our top fund during most bull market years, I just assumed that was where I would park my $$ this year. But it became apparent as the year went on that the C-fund was outperforming the S. To make matters worse, there were micro-cycles of 1-2 weeks where the S outperformed the C, and it seemed that when I made some decisions to go into stocks, and changed from the S to the C, I did it at precisely the wrong times, when the S had its occasional big runs, limiting the gains I would make, despite timing some market peaks nearly perfectly. By the latter part of the year, I stopped trying to guess, and kept my stock allocations mostly 50/50 C and S.

    So sitting at 20.36%...am beating the S (12.55%)...I (11.32%)...F (-1.44%) and G (1.37%) handily. But the true target this year was the C (29.21%) and I totally missed that.

    So now, with still 2 Dec IFT's at hand, and 2 business days left, I'll likely make an IFT either today or tomorrow, to change from my 50/50 S/C allocation that I've kept since Nov, and go mostly, or all into the C, heading into the Ne Year. Happy New Years to all and wishing you all happy returns for 2022!
    CURRENTLY 100% C (as of COB 12/29/2021) 1st December IFT

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  17. #993

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Congratulations FireWeatherMet! Your returns are awesome! You rocked it out.
    Best wishes to you in the coming New Year!

    Hummm... Did you use a sentiment survey as a contra-indicator?
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 1/12/22=S10-C35-I45-G10 // Prior: 1/11/22=S35-C35-I20-G-10 // 12-14-21=G100%// CandlesDef-see#3584, seasonality-see#3613

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  19. #994

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Congratulations FireWeatherMet! Your returns are awesome! You rocked it out.
    Best wishes to you in the coming New Year!

    Hummm... Did you use a sentiment survey as a contra-indicator?
    Thanks DB!
    Just the way SS was meant to be used...Overly Positive Sentiment was a sell signal. But I would say I only weighted it 20% or so...the other 80% was VIX being at a short term low and looking for an overextended stretch on the charts.
    CURRENTLY 100% C (as of COB 12/29/2021) 1st December IFT

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