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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #961

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    After a very strong, seemingly slightly overextended push in the S&P, there is temptation to briefly lock in profits and wait for a lower price top buy back in.
    VIX dropping to near 1 year lows this morning (close to April 1st 1 year low) confirming this.
    F looks possibly like a bear flag (per Tom's discussion) but possibly breaking out in short term so in going to safety I will split my assets into 50% G and 50% F COB today, and hope most of the S&P correction doesn't occur the next few hours-lol.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  3. #962

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Not saying the world is gonna end, since we've got Trillions being pumped into the economy, but...Small Caps chart looking scary when taking a look from a longer perspective.

    CrownTop.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #963

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Have been out of stocks since April 7th, 5 weeks is a long time when ones system is to be in stocks...and only briefly drop out of the market for 1-4 days a month at most...to make a quick gain on the major indices.

    So I have been patiently waiting, since April 7th, when I was up on C by about 1% and up on the S by about 2%.
    Well...on April 7th we had been up for a bit, looking slightly over-extended, but lo and behold we just kept going higher, before churning sideways a bit.

    Have been waiting for this sell-off for quite some time...had to make a decision this morning whether to wait (as I feel this inflation worry story isn't quite over yet) or get back in, as my system demands, since if things close near their current levels, I'll still be 1% above the C for the year, but over 4% above the S.
    Monster move up in the VIX today, near 20% up today..and up approx 50% in the past 3 days!

    So...with 2 minutes before EFT deadline, I pressed the button and went from my former position of 50% F and 50% G...into 50% C and 50% S.
    Being 1% above the C and 4% above the S seems like a good holding position, until the next opportunity to catch an overextended rally later this year, and try to briefly sidestep and make another slight gain on the indices.

    Exit_Entrance.jpg
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 05-12-2021 at 12:15 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  7. #964

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Toying with the idea of doing some "Window Dressing" with last remaining IFT.
    Currently holding in 50/50 C & S....while Ahead of C fund by 2.39% and ahead of S by 5.41%.
    The goal is to finish ahead of all the funds, and the C, being top fund for the month and year, is the closest threat to that.
    Might go 100% C...we'll "See".

    ***UPDATE*** Did IFT out of 50/50 C & S...into 100% C COB today.
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 05-26-2021 at 11:20 AM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  9. #965

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,151

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I wish I was 50/50 C&S. At least I would be positive for the month.
    May the force be with us.

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  11. #966

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    VIX has quietly dropped to new 1 year+ lows.
    Sitting 3% above both C and S funds for the year...don't really want to make a (brief) move to safety unless there is a clear topping pattern and better opportunity to gain more off the stock funds...but will start watching more closely.

    Vix.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  13. #967

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Doing some End of Month "window Dressing"...leaving my 100% C position and shifting to 100% S COB Today.
    Stocks on both S&P and Small Caps at new highs and in a breakout pattern, and given there's only 4 trading days left in June, I don't mind using my 2nd IFT at this point...even if there is a need to get out, I don't envision needing to do that and buy back in until July anyway.
    Have been losing a bit of ground in the annual standings, due to staying in the -C-, which was the "Fund Du Jour" up until a month ago, when $$ started shifting back into Tech and Small Caps.
    S Fund outperforming the C fund by nearly 1% for the year...my system is to stay above the best fund, using a partial "Last Month Best Fund" process.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  15. #968

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Seems my "Window dressing" of choosing C or S continues to backfire...The Small Caps have fallen significantly compared to the S&P...as has my position in the standings out of the top 25 and down into the 60's on the Tracker.
    Using the C-fund chart as a possible indicator that we might be a bit over-extended in our rising channel (below chart)...which would let me (hopefully) profit from my exit and be able to buy in at a lower price.
    Given how the C and S tend to trade places every 2 weeks or so as the "Fund Du Jour", I think that going in 50/50 might be a better bet.
    So for now, using 1st July IFT to exit my horrible 100% S allocation and go 100% G COB Today.

    SP.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  17. #969

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Whew! Move to drop out of stocks and into safety last week (see way down bottom) paid off bigtime...even before todays "Wooosh" toilet flush.
    If stocks close near current levels, I should end up ahead of all indices (+0.50% on C and +5.0% on S). Normally I would get in this morning, which is what my system is calling for...but holding off for now, for 2 reasons.

    1) Looking at SP chart, the 50 Day MA has been a good barometer of brief pullbacks. However we have not hit the 100 Day MA solidly since last fall...8 months of not touching the 100 day is a long time so we're way overdue.

    SP.jpg

    2) The reason for this downturn...was what I was fearing the past several months...news that COVID is back again in enough magnitude to limit the "Full Reopening" that markets have been pricing in for months.
    We can look at a 2nd chart of New COVID cases and hospitalizations nation-wide...thanks to the Delta Variant which is making up most new cases now, primarlily the unvaxed...but asymptomatic infections are occurring even in some vaccinated folks albeit almost none severe (GET FRIGGEN VACCINATED PEOPLE)!!
    New Cases +140% increase...New Deaths +33% increase in just past 2 weeks, and those numbers look to be steadily climbing on the "charts". This threatens the whole "Re-opening Trade"...so will wait just a bit more before going back into stocks.

    Covid Latest.jpg

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Seems my "Window dressing" of choosing C or S continues to backfire...The Small Caps have fallen significantly compared to the S&P...as has my position in the standings out of the top 25 and down into the 60's on the Tracker.
    Using the C-fund chart as a possible indicator that we might be a bit over-extended in our rising channel (below chart)...which would let me (hopefully) profit from my exit and be able to buy in at a lower price.
    Given how the C and S tend to trade places every 2 weeks or so as the "Fund Du Jour", I think that going in 50/50 might be a better bet.
    So for now, using 1st July IFT to exit my horrible 100% S allocation and go 100% G COB Today.

    SP.jpg
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 07-19-2021 at 12:17 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  19. #970

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Rocky Mountain High
    Posts
    6,960

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Gotta thank certain media outlets for actively telling people to NOT get vaccinated. Pure evil.

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Whew! Move to drop out of stocks and into safety last week (see way down bottom) paid off bigtime...even before todays "Wooosh" toilet flush.
    If stocks close near current levels, I should end up ahead of all indices (+0.50% on C and +5.0% on S). Normally I would get in this morning, which is what my system is calling for...but holding off for now, for 2 reasons.

    1) Looking at SP chart, the 50 Day MA has been a good barometer of brief pullbacks. However we have not hit the 100 Day MA solidly since last fall...8 months of not touching the 100 day is a long time so we're way overdue.

    SP.jpg

    2) The reason for this downturn...was what I was fearing the past several months...news that COVID is back again in enough magnitude to limit the "Full Reopening" that markets have been pricing in for months.
    We can look at a 2nd chart of New COVID cases and hospitalizations nation-wide...thanks to the Delta Variant which is making up most new cases now, primarlily the unvaxed...but asymptomatic infections are occurring even in some vaccinated folks albeit almost none severe (GET FRIGGEN VACCINATED PEOPLE)!!
    New Cases +140% increase...New Deaths +33% increase in just past 2 weeks, and those numbers look to be steadily climbing on the "charts". This threatens the whole "Re-opening Trade"...so will wait just a bit more before going back into stocks.

    Covid Latest.jpg
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.

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  21. #971

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    904

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by weatherweenie View Post
    Gotta thank certain media outlets for actively telling people to NOT get vaccinated. Pure evil.

    I watch a lot of news. I read a lot of news. I don't know what media outlets you are referring to. Care to share a link so I can read it for myself?
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  23. #972

    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Location
    Bloomington, Indiana
    Posts
    322

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I've seen at worst news outlets encourage free choice. Trump say you should get it but make up your own mind. I don't see the big deal.. Get the vaccine, you are safe.


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