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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #841

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Per video below, some short term pain in next few days possible, before runup to +3000 levels on SP.

    Jobs report due Friday, and it has the potential to be a "Sell the News" event, especially if it comes in close to expected numbers, as better jobs numbers, and stocks in record teritory with record low unemployment would make it tougher for Fed justifying a rate cut in July.

    Locking in 1% July profits, going 100%G, but plan on jumping back in at a lower price (hopefully).
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 07-03-2019 at 11:23 AM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  3. #842

    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Location
    Bethesda, Maryland
    Posts
    220

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Per video below, some short term pain in next few days possible, before runup to +3000 levels on SP.

    Jobs report due Friday, and it has the potential to be a "Sell the News" event, especially if it comes in close to expected numbers, as better jobs numbers, and stocks in record teritory with record low unemployment would make it tougher for Fed justifying a rate cut in July.

    Locking in 1% July profits, going 100%G, but plan on jumping back in at a lower price (hopefully).
    If you think Friday might be an up day? Why go to the "G" Fund now?
    Practice makes perfect, so practice I do.

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  5. #843

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    9,747

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by rothnroll View Post
    If you think Friday might be an up day? Why go to the "G" Fund now?
    FWM, is saying a "sell the news event" which translates to a posible down day.
    May the force be with us.

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  7. #844

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Feeling really good with my first move from C/S into G to not get too greedy and lock in 1.5% profits just before Jobs report, and having more dry powder left to move back into equities at a lower price.
    Since I know I'll likely not finish anywhere close to here by months end, because I'll probably do something stupid, like go back in too early, or too late, I'll just savor this now.

    returns.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  9. #845

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Returning back to my system of staying invested in stocks (Bull Market) or Bonds (Bear Market) a majority of the time.
    Leaving 100% G and going 100% S COB today...C fund is breaking out on Fed Euphoria, but S has more room to run to new highs, and seems small caps ofer the best buy in opportunity, being negative slightly today.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  11. #846

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Have been watching the open gap on the S&P get filled today as we have (as of noon EDT) recovered about half our losses from the recent 5% drop.
    Tom has been mentioning this for a few days, and when this plunge started, I did tentatively make a "recovery plan" to wait till we bounced to that level to use my 1st Aug IFT to exit my 100% S position and lock in the recent 2.5% gains by going in all G. The second part of this plan would be anticipating prices falling towards our recent lows, and buying back in at a much lower price. Well, we hit that gap this morning (see chart) and I followed suit and used 1st Aug IFT to go 100% G COB today.

    The "danger" for making that choice is if we fully fill that gap and keep going up. I saw some news after I made the IFT that China may peg its Yuan to keep at just above the critical 7 level, at least for now. Had I seen that before I might have stayed in longer.
    But it is what it is, and we'll see how the market closes today, and how any headlines affect it tomorrow and in the coming. days. Whenever I try to use short term news to over-rule the chart signals, I usually get my "assets" handed to me, so I stand by my move (gulp).

    SP.jpg
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 08-08-2019 at 12:27 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT


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  13. #847

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Previous plan working out this morning (at least for now). Who knows what the afternoon will bring.
    Could jump back in and guarantee a decent jump on all the funds this month, which is what my system calls for.
    But.....
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  15. #848

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Chart patterns pointed to staying in safety as new lows seemed likely.
    However, China tarrif news "Trumps" charts in the short term, so with September 1st deadline pushed back, I will adhere to my system, which says get back in, to stay ahead of the indices for the month (even if all finsih negative).

    Jumped back from 100% G into 100% C by COB today...2nd Aug IFT.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  17. #849

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    This bounce back eliminates most of the mega 1 day drop from last week.
    Little confidence that we're headed to new highs, so going 100% G COB today.

    Oscar Carboni says charts still setting up a huge bear flag, which this mornings positive action still verifies...I'll take the rest of August off.

    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  19. #850

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    "Possible" Bear Flag still building.
    This chart was from Oscar Carboni's video yesterday. Todays action, rising early, diving a bit late and finishing only slightly higher overall, just defined the flag even better.
    Of course, if the Fed surprises tomorrow and announces massive rate cuts (which would be stupid economically) then we could break out to the upside.
    But the more likely scenario is the Fed being non-commital or only hinting at another small cut. That would upset an irrational market which, for some reason, has priced in 3-4 rate cuts for the rest of the year.
    I'm happy moving to the sidelines. Will look to buy back in after Labor Day at a much better price.

    Bear Flag.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  21. #851

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Interesting analysis.

    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  23. #852

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Everyone has been talking about the 2Yr-10Yr Inversion and its approx 80% success rate at predicting Recessions in the near future.

    Evidently, there is an even more reliable predictor.


    Recession.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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