You can always go partial stocks (50/50, 25/75, etc) if you're not committed. Hedging with some F-fund could protect against any further downside in stocks.
Been contemplating what to do with last May IFT.
Sit in G?
Shift to F?
Roll the dice and catch the market in a bounce after a few down days.
Taking Option 3 (gulp). Shift from 100% G and go 50% C and 50% S COB today.
This is just a short term play thru tomorrow, or (hopefully) into early next week.
CURRENTLY 50% C and 50% S (as of COB 04/18/2024) 2nd April IFT
You can always go partial stocks (50/50, 25/75, etc) if you're not committed. Hedging with some F-fund could protect against any further downside in stocks.
Tom
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I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Good Point Tom...if today started as a big up day, I would have used a 3rd monthly move to phase back into 50% G and 50% S, which we can do in a 3rd, 4th, or 5th monthly move.
Feel there is another leg (or more) down, just trying to be there for the next short trend upward.
CURRENTLY 50% C and 50% S (as of COB 04/18/2024) 2nd April IFT
Happy with my last IFT, entering stocks with a 50-50 split of S&C on May 31st.
After eating a 1% loss the last day of May, I am up close to 4% for June ( if current price action holds). Locking that in for now, with 1st June IFT shifting back to 100% G COB today.
It is rare to have the market continue going up more than 4-5 straight days of moderate to strong gains without some pullback.
Given trade uncertainties with Mexico and China, and stock gains on weak conomic data (poor jobs report) which usually serves as only a short-term stock boost to garner a future rate cut, I feel that there is a good chance to buy back into stocks at a lower price then now, sometime later next week, or later this month.
Good luck to everyone.
Whoa!!!!!
Don't think I've EVER seen a ratio this high.
Sentiment.jpg
CURRENTLY 50% C and 50% S (as of COB 04/18/2024) 2nd April IFT
Helene Meisler noticed it yesterday on Twitter.https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1143262683300605952
SHe said:
"I have not looked at this sentiment survey in years but inadvertently clicked on it just now. WOW. WOW.
https://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php.
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Second question is what do allocations on the tracker say? Per Ocean's List, nothing like the sentiment survey.
All members combined averages Returns % G % F % C % S % I % L2050 L2040 L2030 L2020 Income Total members: 1285 10.34 38.63 6.68 16.29 27.76 5.74 2.01 0.45 0.84 0.78 0.83
Close to 50% invested in stocks currently, BUT remember the Sentiment is what you think will occur the following week. SO what were people invested in last week might be more relevant since thats when the vote was taken.
Also, people who are out of stocks (F,G) but are feeling left behind in the rally and want to jump in before its too late (the Dumb Money) often vote Bulllish even though they might still be in Safety. So I don't think dismising the SS based on current allocations is valid. IMHO
As for how many vote in Sentiment now compared to before, well I don't have those numbers (Tom probably does) but I have no reason to think its less, so probably more, given we have more members, thus a larger sample population.
CURRENTLY 50% C and 50% S (as of COB 04/18/2024) 2nd April IFT
Is this still a contrarian signal, bullish being bearish for stocks? Or, as CH pointed out some time ago, we may be more smart money than otherwise.
50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!
Good question. I still think Bearish, but Ive noticed whenever we hit this very Bullish level lately (near or above 60), its usually 2 weeks later that the "Big Kibosh" happens, not so much the following week, which it was designed for.
Anyway, I am leaving safety and going from 100% G...into 50% C and 50% S COB today. Just a 1-3 day move probably, but we'll see.
Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 06-27-2019 at 11:39 AM.
CURRENTLY 50% C and 50% S (as of COB 04/18/2024) 2nd April IFT
Maybe I'll stay in stocks a little bit longer?
As long as the 5 day EMA stays above the 13 day EMA?
SP.jpg
CURRENTLY 50% C and 50% S (as of COB 04/18/2024) 2nd April IFT
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