Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

I hope you are right. Good analysis. Don't know if you can trust 1, 2 & 3 but 4 does seem to be good news.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

So far, a very successful move last Friday from G to back into stocks (C fund)...although would have been a perfect move if I had moved in a day earlier like my signals were screaming for me to do.

Main reason why this rally may have some legs...is some very important geopolitical/economic reasons were largely responsible for our prolonged downturn...started to turn the corner and reverse.

Cramer highlighted some of these on his show a few weeks ago:

1) China economy and markets continued down-slide.

2) Oil continuing to fall...with no bottom in sight.

3) European Bank Failure Rumors:

4) Continued Decline in Dow Transports due to Most of the Above.

Well, some interesting news started coming out in the past few days that changed each of those 4 factors in the opposite direction.

1) Zhou (China's Alan Greenspan) came out and basically said that the Yuan will no longer depreciate.
PBOC's Zhou Breaks His Long Silence - Yahoo Finance
Chines markets have also seem to have found (at least an interim) bottom or floor.

2) Oil might have bottomed.
T. Boon Pickens made that call a few weeks ago and everyone laughed at him but he might end up being right.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/01/picke...hats-next.html
Oil up 7% today and over 20% from its recent bottom...as several bi oil producing nations have agreed to cut production.
We might not have much higher to go, but not free-falling to $10 is a great sigh of relief, and now we're going into the spring/summer higher usage period.
Oil up 7 percent as Iran welcomes output freeze without word on cuts - Yahoo News

3) ECB announces European Banks have enough cash reserves...don't need to raise more.
ECB Done Raising Capital Demands on Euro Banks, Nouy Says - Bloomberg Business

4) Dow Transports making a breakout as "Bear Flag" falls apart.

Dow Trans.jpg

So with the 4 major macro-economic factors off the table or markedly better (at least for now), and stocks being "over-sold", this market should move up...and move up fast.
Not sure if our bear market (that began between May and August) is over (it would be 6-9 months-a good enough time period although most go a little longer historically), but as long as the top four factors above stay positive, and no new macro bad news occurs, you want t be IN stocks. Not out.

Unless the market drops to new lows...sitting in safety making nothing while the market shoots up 5% in 3 days is the same as being in stocks when they were falling and taking a 5% loss.
So don't fall in love with the downside...because sooner or later, that takes a big bite out of your backside.

Excellent work fireweathermet. You have a good grasp of what moves the world markets. Will be watching your posts as usual to get the next leg up. Thanks so much for the article links. Keep up the good work. 😊

SP.png

Woke up this morning to the tune of KC and the Sunshine Band.

"That's the way...uh-huh uh-huh...I like it...uh-huh uh-huh"

Originally Posted by felixthecat

Excellent work fireweathermet. You have a good grasp of what moves the world markets. Will be watching your posts as usual to get the next leg up. Thanks so much for the article links. Keep up the good work. 

Thanks felixthecat.
Its been a long road of years of trial and error (mostly error-lol) to finally feel like I put it all together enough to come up with a system that I feel can beat the market pretty consistently, which is what has happened for the past 14 months.

Speaking of that...today is the 1st of March...so I usually do a "monthly update" seeing where I went right and where I went wrong.

February Monthly Wrap Up

Overall for February, my account finished up at +2.36%

The other funds for June: C fund +0.12%.....S fund -0.50%.....I fund -2.82%.....F fund +0.68%

So I finally beat ALL of the funds for the month...including the G fund...while also finishing positive in a month when most of the other funds were even to some slight losses.

On the Monthly tracker I finished #35 (out of 1627) for February...about the top 2% across the entire Tracker

The more important score...for the year...I was down -2.18%. That was #368 on the Tracker (out of 1144 non-premium folks that I can "see"). That's in at about the top 32% of the Tracker.

The other funds for the year: C fund-5.07%.....S fund -8.26%.....I fund -8.28%.....F fund +2.18%

So I am now FINALLY where I want to be (except for being positive, which might change by COB today). Ahead of ALL the stock funds year (except the F and G of course).
The trick is to keep that lead...and stay mostly with (in) the markets, and try to build on that 3-6% lead on the C-S-I...but also aim for the F and G if charts indicate a pattern similar to the past 7 months.
This all involves briefly exiting stocks ONLY at clear overbought opportunities every month or two, and USUALLY just for 1-3 days before getting back in (so you don't get whipsawed).
That's taken a strong stomach the past few months.

Good luck to all.

Did somebody say Whipsaw?

System is screaming for me to use 1st IFT to briefly sidestep at new recent high...up 8 of 9 days.

100% G COB today.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

System is screaming for me to use 1st IFT to briefly sidestep at new recent high...up 8 of 9 days.

100% G COB today.

I decided to move from 45% S, 45% C, and 10%I to 80% G and leave 5% in C, S, I, F. I will be looking to buy in next week after the FED decision.

Can't beat gettin' out on an up-day. Good move!

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

System is screaming for me to use 1st IFT to briefly sidestep at new recent high...up 8 of 9 days.

100% G COB today.

Well, got out a week ago at what WAS a new high...but has since been eclipsed past 2 trading days.

Still not too bad though...am up +4.81% for the month...while C-Fund is +6.21% and S-Fund is +6.88%

This is when I'm most nervous...being out of the market while it drifts off higher without me.
But what makes me feel semi-good right now is the bullish sentiment we have (see it on our survey Monday),as well as the VIX...now at a 7-month low (below).

vix.jpg

While weirder things have happened, with where sentiment and the VIX are right now, I think we're due for at least a 2-3% pullback next week, before going back up to higher highs.
I am about 1.4% below the C and near 2% below the S. Don't plan on being too greedy, but it would be nice to gain a little ground on both before the month is out.
We'll see.

March Monthly Wrap-Up

It was the best of months...it was the worst of months.

Had my highest 1-month performance in over half a year but for the first time in several months, I under-performed the other indices quite significantly.

For March, I was up +4.87%. The other funds: C-Fund +6.79% : S-Fund +8.24%: I-Fund +6.59%.

After timing the bottom within one day and getting into the C-Fund at the mid 1800's, I exited the C fund when it hit 2022...so my system calls for me to wait till the S&P falls a bit below that level before buying in again.

Then again, just because my system calls for it, doesn't mean that it will happen anytime soon, and the danger in my system is being out of the market more than 3-5 days per month. That's where I am now...being out for over 2 weeks, but I'm trying to exercise patience with the possibility of a minor 3% correction putting me back into a buy.

SP.jpg

More importantly, in the long term, I continue to hold a lead on the major indices but much of that lead has narrowed this past month. I am positive this year at +2.58%

The other funds: C-Fund +1.37% : S-Fund -0.70%: I-Fund -2.24%. So I remain above them for the year to date, except the F Fund at +3.13%.

For the YTD I am still ranking 99 out of 1112...in the top 9% of the Tracker. My goal is to be in the top 50...or the top 5%...but my system is meant as a slow, conservative grind upwards, so hopefully patience will prevail and I can get a dip somewhere below 2022 on the S&P to buy back in.
If not then there is the threat of a poor year, where the stock train pulls away without you. We'll see. Good luck to all this month.

Recalibrating for May...using leftover IFT into 100% F effective COB today.