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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #601

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    2015 Annual Wrap Up

    A year ago...I went with a new trading system.
    Instead of trying to make money, a certain %, my goal was targeting the market itself...to target and beat all the funds, and letting the $$ or percent gain take care of itself.
    90% of Wall St fund managers cannot do this.

    Well, here is the year-end analysis of my new trading system.

    My final annual tally: +5.31%

    G Fund: +2.05%
    C Fund: +1.46%
    F Fund: +0.91%
    I Fund: -0.51%
    S Fund: -2.92%

    So I succeeded in beating all the funds significantly...by over 3% higher than the best fund (C) and over 8% higher than the S-fund.
    In past years...finishing 3% above the best performing fund would have put me in:

    2014: 24th place (of 1542). Top 1.5% of total tracker.
    2013: 1st place (of 1308). Winner of total tracker.
    2012: 19th place (of 1317). Top 1.4% of total tracker.
    2011: 66th place (of 1035). Top 6.4% of total tracker.
    2010: 4th place (of 607). Top 0.7% of total tracker.
    2009: 5th place (of 288). Top 1.7% of total tracker.
    2008: 4th place (of 51). Top 7.8% of total tracker.

    2015 had me finishing in 208th place (of 1809). Top 11.5% of total tracker.

    Maybe that's a testament of how much better our group has become over the years.
    Maybe also the added Premium Services...esp Intrepid who led his flock very well past few years.

    I deviated from my system in October, and after losing big early in the month, stayed tucked away in the G instead of staying invested and locked in a negative month. That cost me nearly 9% from the average of the 3 funds. Had I stayed with my system, I would be up over 14% for this year...and in the top 20 in this years tracker and near top 1% of total tracker.
    But you live and learn.

    Seems my system works best in bull years, and would be weakest (but still effective) in bear years (2015, 2011, 2008).
    So despite today's sell-off, I will try to stay within my system as much as I can avoid temptation.
    If 2016 is a positive year, history says my system should finish near the top 1%, and even have a 1 in 5 chance of winning the total tracker (lol- but I am confident I'll muck that up).

    Good luck to all of you in 2016!
    FWM
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 01-05-2016 at 01:03 AM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  3. #602

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Congratulations, FWM!!! That's quite an accomplishment -- especially in a year when half the AT was underwater.

    Now might be a good time to remind us how your system works. I seem to remember something about being in the market most of the time but stepping out after recent run-ups and buying back in again after the price drops 2% below your exit price. That way whether the fund is up or down you are always above it or something like that.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  5. #603

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Congratulations, FWM!!! That's quite an accomplishment -- especially in a year when half the AT was underwater.

    Now might be a good time to remind us how your system works. I seem to remember something about being in the market most of the time but stepping out after recent run-ups and buying back in again after the price drops 2% below your exit price. That way whether the fund is up or down you are always above it or something like that.
    Yup, that's basically it...except normally its not even 2%. It depends a bit on the chart pattern, but even an 0.5% gain is worth locking in, if you can do it every other month. That by itself would put you 3% above the stock funds by the end of the year, and if Fidelity Magellan saw you doing that for a few years in a row, they pay you a few million/yr to run their fund (lol).

    If we're not only at a new high but in a classic topping pattern, then I might remain on the sidelines a little longer than just 1-4 days...but that killed me in October, I got too cautious. That's when I get the most nervous in this system...when I'm OUT of the market. lol.

    But given your 2015 run...you should be telling us about YOUR system! I'm curious.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  7. #604

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Yeah, I really lucked out this year because I made my money early in the year and bailed to safety because of family medical issues right before a market drop. That set me me up pretty for the rest of the year even though that came and went.

    I'm afraid that my trading in 2015 was driven primarily by my losing -7.39% in 2014. I performed poorly in 2014 because of poor timing and refusing to chase the market. I resolved not to let that happen again. Seeing your system I also decided to spend more time in the market. My problem has been getting out too soon. I could make more staying in longer but then when do I get out. I don't time that well.

    What helped me this year is buying fear near market bottoms. I would track the Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic indicators for our Funds as well as the comments on this forum. If the indicators pointed to being near a low and the comments on here were largely Doom & Gloom I would buy in. That's what's keeping me in now.

    I don't think that is going to work too well if we really tank this year. I'm still looking around for something different but haven't found it yet. I haven't been impressed with the LMBF methods I've been analyzing for the last two years, though, something more mechanical like that suits me better.

    Then again all my experience in recent years has been in bull markets. I don't have any experience in a bear market since 2008 so this could be quite different going forward. That could cause me to hunker down in the G or F Fund and only step in occasionally at extremely oversold times.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  9. #605

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Well, might be breaking with system already (see I knew I would muck it up).

    Think with China circuit breaker issues plus other macro's , the charts show we should at least go past the late summer lows of last years before possibly snapping back.
    That could be in 2 days or 2 weeks but its a few percent. Will briefly shift to -G- with first IFT. My luck, deadcat bounce begins tomorrow - lol. Thought about waiting, but sometimes you wait for something that doesn't happen (last August we did not get one). Got 3 min to log into tsp gov site and make move.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  11. #606

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Got it done in less than a minute (lol)

    1st IFT into 100% -G- COB today. Not panic trade...likely to jump back in a few days. I just don't see the turnaround by tomorrow.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  13. #607

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Sometimes Maryland, Sometimes Texas
    Posts
    3,504

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Well, might be breaking with system already (see I knew I would muck it up).

    Think with China circuit breaker issues plus other macro's , the charts show we should at least go past the late summer lows of last years before possibly snapping back.
    That could be in 2 days or 2 weeks but its a few percent. Will briefly shift to -G- with first IFT. My luck, deadcat bounce begins tomorrow - lol. Thought about waiting, but sometimes you wait for something that doesn't happen (last August we did not get one). Got 3 min to log into tsp gov site and make move.
    It's a tough call to make FWM, but preserving what you have is just as good as making a gain. I made the same decision on 4 Jan and have been sleeping a lot better since I did.
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

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  15. #608

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    lol,

    Watching CNBC analysts desperately trying to paint a shinier picture with smiley faces and bull$$H!t quotes like:

    "Well the markets are well off their lows!! Dow was down over 300 points but now its up significantly...down only 230 points
    "

    Are you kidding? And then a few minutes later Dow is back down over 300 points again.

    It would be nice if market news talking heads weren't so beholden to their advertisers (Fidelity, Ameritrade etc...). You can get the truth from them only if you can read between the lines.

    That's why I like watching Cramer. When he thinks the market sucks..he'll say basically that.
    He does flip flop a lot from day to day though, and with only 2 monthly IFT's its hard to always use him a s a consistent tool.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  17. #609

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    lol,

    Watching CNBC analysts desperately trying to paint a shinier picture with smiley faces and bull$$H!t quotes like:

    "Well the markets are well off their lows!! Dow was down over 300 points but now its up significantly...down only 230 points
    "

    Are you kidding? And then a few minutes later Dow is back down over 300 points again.

    It would be nice if market news talking heads weren't so beholden to their advertisers (Fidelity, Ameritrade etc...). You can get the truth from them only if you can read between the lines.

    That's why I like watching Cramer. When he thinks the market sucks..he'll say basically that.
    He does flip flop a lot from day to day though, and with only 2 monthly IFT's its hard to always use him a s a consistent tool.
    Oh, I dunno, I've always thought he was a consistent tool. (Thanks for the hanging curve ball. I had to swing at it....)

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  19. #610

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    LOL! So true. There are a few bright ones on CNBC who have some knowledge, but many are cheerleaders who know very little. I guess when you have to fill a whole day you run out of intelligent things to say.

    OK, I'm out of intelligent things to say.

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    lol,

    Watching CNBC analysts desperately trying to paint a shinier picture with smiley faces and bull$$H!t quotes like:

    "Well the markets are well off their lows!! Dow was down over 300 points but now its up significantly...down only 230 points
    "

    Are you kidding? And then a few minutes later Dow is back down over 300 points again.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #611

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    It's a tough call to make FWM, but preserving what you have is just as good as making a gain. I made the same decision on 4 Jan and have been sleeping a lot better since I did.
    Good move. The past few days confirm you're a genius.

    One thing though...you might not want to hunker down too long.
    Last summers selloff was a V and then quickly back up almost as much.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #612

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    This analyst on CNBC's Fast Money had a really good take on what this market is doing...and where this market might go.
    Really nice chart work...like Tom and JTH rolled into one.

    Pro who called the correction: Valuations still too high?
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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