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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #37

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    As I said the other day, I am (err, mean was) not worried about the quick drop.
    Long sustained rallies can have a quick 2-3% drop to the 20 day EMA...which only serves as a quick steam release on the pressure cooker before a quick rise to higher heights.

    As far as we've risen, a much more well defined top will likely form when we do get that more significant pullback. In my opinion, the action in the past 2-3 days mirrors what happened back in the spring of 2012 (below, left side) where the S&P had a sustained 2 1/2 month rise before a quick 2-3% drop to just below the 20 day EMA (highlighted in purple box). Then just as quickly the market reversed that dip and soared back to higher highs, before a more classic, crowing top began to form which would have been your exit signal (uhm, Birch) before a 2-3 month, 10% correction.

    Looking at the charts (and today's action) either we're already in a correction with today being the "dead-cat bounce", or (IMHO more likely) we're in that same phase as early March 2012, (purple box on right) with a quick return to higher highs. This would correspond better to the next Fibonacci level of resistance near 1550. If we break out in the next few days, that level would be one to watch out for spiking tops and rising VIX.

    So I continue to stand pat, and hope that this isn't the dead cat bouncing, with the March 1st sequester kicking in another sharp move downward. That is a possibility, but I'm betting against that attm.

    CURRENTLY 30% C, 20% S and 50% G (as of COB 04/11/2024) 1st April IFT

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  3. #38

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    That May correction ended up taking -$445K out of my oceanic account - but I did manage to get it all back. I'm not looking for any type of repeat this year. Sure glad you are showing some good sense investment ideas - I knew all along you were capable.

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  5. #39

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I made this chart for you, keeping in mind your observations of the crowned top. This chart is only theoretical, it's a little too experimental for my preference, but the math does seem to add up. This scenario calls for a 1500 bottom on 6 March.

    Attachment 22669
    Retired, 50G/50C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats

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  7. #40

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    I made this chart for you, keeping in mind your observations of the crowned top. This chart is only theoretical, it's a little too experimental for my preference, but the math does seem to add up. This scenario calls for a 1500 bottom on 6 March.

    Attachment 22669
    Thanks for the chart JT.
    Sorry, been "unplugged" the past few days.


    So were' gonna see a pretty hard tumble (-3%) tomorrow??
    CURRENTLY 30% C, 20% S and 50% G (as of COB 04/11/2024) 1st April IFT

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  9. #41

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    It's time to get real - we're obviously heading higher, much higher. Cash is going to chase Ferdinand to higher green fields.

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  11. #42

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatheret View Post
    Thanks for the chart JT.
    Sorry, been "unplugged" the past few days.


    So were' gonna see a pretty hard tumble (-3%) tomorrow??
    Lol no my friend, I think this pattern is busted!

    Attachment 22747
    Retired, 50G/50C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats

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  13. #43

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Everything seems to be staying on course per previous thoughts a week ago:
    Mainly last weeks correction to the 50 day EMA was the pressure release on the steam cooker...and we would be cooking up to higher highs.

    From Feb 22nd post (link below with charts)
    "As I said the other day, I am (err, mean was) not worried about the quick drop. Long sustained rallies can have a quick 2-3% drop to the 20 day EMA...which only serves as a quick steam release on the pressure cooker before a quick rise to higher heights."

    FireWeatherMet Account Talk


    2 things continue to support my belief that we're at least headed up to the Fibonacci upper band in the 1550's.

    1) Sequester fears aside...what has actually happened with modest tax hikes Jan1st...and moderate spending cuts with the sequester...is that the US Congress and president have done what many say could not be done...a bipartisan approach of tax hikes and spending cuts to tame the deficit.
    Last time this happened was 1994...which led to a 6 year trend of significantly reducing the deficit and resulted in a mega bull run in the markets.

    2) Possible GDP reduction due to sequestered Gov't spending is actually good news for the markets. This makes it more likely that Bernanke and his Fed underlings keep the petal to the metal with QE. Remember, the biggest reason we dropped off a few weeks ago were the Fed minutes that some Fed Chiefs felt it was time to phase QE out. Sequesterd Fed spending makes this much less likely now.

    So with the Fed now probably locked in for at least the rest of the year, , remember Jim Cramers motto "Don't Fight the Fed".
    And with bi-partisan deficit reduction plan grudgingly in place...Don't fight ingredients that led to bull market of 1990's.
    CURRENTLY 30% C, 20% S and 50% G (as of COB 04/11/2024) 1st April IFT

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  15. #44

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Gosh ganja man, you sound so, so, so reasonable. Please keep up the good words.

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  17. #45

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Are right, who are you and what did you do with FWM
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.


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  19. #46

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    The support is 1540. It will soon be 1550. Spring is here. Right on time to get the market on a solid plateau. Financials are still undervalued. From the solid base I mentioned the markets have no recourse but to rise. It is anticipated that money will flow into Europe during late spring with tourism, so the I fund will pop up like cherry tree buds. The I fund, the forgotten step child of our funds, will roll later in the year. After we hit 1600 in early summer the market will find its new beginning. Onward then to 1700 by the end of the year. Presently, the market cannot go flat nor will it go down at this time, during these conditions. Tomorrow expect another day similar to today. The SPX must seek its new all time high, and it will.

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  21. #47

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Locking in profits...Bounced out today...100% G as of COB Wed.

    Think we still have higher to go, but rarely do we go much higher when we're up 7 out of 8 days...and sitting at all-time or near all-time highs (S&P).

    Looking for a slightly better buy back in (minus the -I- Fund) within a few days.
    CURRENTLY 30% C, 20% S and 50% G (as of COB 04/11/2024) 1st April IFT

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  23. #48

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    ey mon, puffin' on a little f'n G?

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