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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #25

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    On the other hand I thought about what our "smart money" might be doing, but hard to figure out our "smart money" this early in 2013, so I went to our top 5 in 2012 and 2011.
    Wanted to get a bit of sampling from 2 different stock years.

    What I found from this 10 member "Smartest Money" TSPTalk sample...is that 4 out of 10 (40%) were currently in stocks (mostly S Fund) while 6 out of 10 (60%) were in G or F.

    Out of those 6 in G/F...4 of those 6 went from stocks to safety between Jan 30 and Feb 6...during the formation of the recent "false top".
    Some of them even mentioned on their Recent IFT's posts that it looks like a top. Now we know it was probably a false top...but Smart Money usually doesn't chase the market.
    Reason I am "chasing" is because I think there is a good likelihood to go up to the next Fibonacci level of resistance at 1550, so sidestepping a potential topping pattern threat near 1510 but getting back in now near 1520 (after confirmation of a false top) makes sense to me.
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 02-13-2013 at 03:46 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  3. #26

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    On the other hand I thought about what our "smart money" might be doing, but hard to figure out our "smart money" this early in 2013, so I went to our top 5 in 2012 and 2011. Wanted to get a bit of sampling from 2 different stock years.

    What I found from this 10 member "Smartest Money" TSPTalk sample...is that 4 out of 10 (40%) were currently in stocks (mostly S Fund)....while 6 out of 10 (60%) were in F and/or G.

    Out of those 6 in G/F...4 of those 6 went from stocks to safety between Jan 30 and Feb 6...during the formation of the recent "false top". Some of them even mentioned on their Recent IFT's posts that it looks like a top. Now we know it was probably a false top...but Smart Money usually doesn't chase the market. Reason I am "chasing" is because I think there is a good likelihood to go up to the next Fibonacci level of resistance at 1550, so getting in around 1520 makes sense to me.
    I'm looking past 1550 to 1600, by April. And when it hits that number, at that time, there will be no such thing as "Sell in May.....". The market will be in overdrive and it'll be ,"Hang on, we're going to 1700 and doing so by taking giant steps every day". I may be shorting us on that number. Could be 1750, 1800.

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  5. #27

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJoe View Post
    I'm looking past 1550 to 1600, by April. And when it hits that number, at that time, there will be no such thing as "Sell in May.....". The market will be in overdrive and it'll be ,"Hang on, we're going to 1700 and doing so by taking giant steps every day". I may be shorting us on that number. Could be 1750, 1800.
    why not 2000?
    I trade based on volume + price action. Price action alone only tells half the story.


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  7. #28

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    As the most hated rally in the history of rallies continues the entirety of small investors remain entrenched in the painful memories of 2008 that take time to heal and that leave deep and abiding scars. Remember, big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and out. People hate to be responsible for their own pain. We need them to not return in droves but slowly over time pushing the market higher and higher. The rally will continue for several years as long as tight money conditions aren't prevalent. When the animal spirits arrive there will be no mistaken them. Don't allow yourself to be paralyzed with fear.

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  9. #29

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I'm amused you gave up on your crowned top...

    Attachment 22466

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  11. #30

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Interesting JTH, maybe you called the top after all?

    If it were a true top and in its latter stages just before freefall, the VIX should be spiking more, like it was over a week ago. We'll see.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  13. #31

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Going into the I Fund last week (50%) reminded me of the definition of insanity...doing the same thing & expecting a different result.

    Well..well...what do we have today with the I Fund...A DIFFERENT RESULT!!!:toung:

    So far this past IFT (50-50 S and I) looks good and I'll will be using the S&P as a monitor...when it approaches 1550 (another 1.5%) I plan on stepping aside...unless volatility remains very low, with small daily gains. 1550 has been a long term Fibonacci level of resistance. If VIX and indices start "chopping" I'm outta here till the fog clears.

    Until then..full steam ahead (lol)
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  15. #32

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    "Capex set to fuel a 5 year stock market rally. And could well be the beginning of a 'super bull market' that could go on for as long as 15 to 18 years." I guess I'll just hold long and rake in as much as possible.

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39083.html

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  17. #33

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    "Capex set to fuel a 5 year stock market rally. And could well be the beginning of a 'super bull market' that could go on for as long as 15 to 18 years." I guess I'll just hold long and rake in as much as possible.

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39083.html
    5 year rally on the footsteps of a 4 year rally? When was the last time that happened?

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  19. #34

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    The 4 year rally was a stocks stealth rally that few were willing to participate in - now business is ready. Did you know that in 2008 the SPX dropped over 50 points 18 times that year - can you smell the potential as we move forward to ever higher highs. The financial markets always rally dramatically following any true bottom, so that those who panicked on the way down are punished rather than rewarded. That only seems fair in my book.

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  21. #35

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Not too worried at all with today's drop.

    This drop was news driven, basically "speculation" on what the FED was "speculating" from last months minutes over what a "few" of them might or might not want to do many many months way down the road...maybe a year from now.

    So I feel this will just be a short term thing and we snap back up quickly, within a few days.

    BUT...volatility has been reintroduced...closely on the heels of the last round with the false crown of 2 weeks ago. VIX up near 19%...JTH has some nice VIX charts on his account site. Sequestration worries coming soon.

    So I will stand put (50% S and 50% I), and expect to be at new highs in the next few days. , but will keep an eye on the charts for another top forming. There is a chance yesterday was the 1st point on the crown.

    I would be very surprised if we continued to fall...unless Bernanke says something to the contrary.
    Otherwise its possible the market goes back up, and keeps going up based on good or bad news...with bad news serving as hope that the Fed keeps on QE'ing.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 10/07/19) 1st Oct IFT

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  23. #36

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Not too worried at all with today's drop.

    This drop was news driven, basically "speculation" on what the FED was "speculating" from last months minutes over what a "few" of them might or might not want to do many many months way down the road...maybe a year from now.

    So I feel this will just be a short term thing and we snap back up quickly, within a few days.

    BUT...volatility has been reintroduced...closely on the heels of the last round with the false crown of 2 weeks ago. VIX up near 19%...JTH has some nice VIX charts on his account site. Sequestration worries coming soon.

    So I will stand put (50% S and 50% I), and expect to be at new highs in the next few days. , but will keep an eye on the charts for another top forming. There is a chance yesterday was the 1st point on the crown.

    I would be very surprised if we continued to fall...unless Bernanke says something to the contrary.
    Otherwise its possible the market goes back up, and keeps going up based on good or bad news...with bad news serving as hope that the Fed keeps on QE'ing.
    It's tough to look into the future, I'm in the same vein, 1 down day does not a pullback make.


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