Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Originally Posted by Birchtree

You can't always believe what you read.

I was going to join the bus tour today but time got away from me.

FWM,

We have significant differences politically, but I have to congratulate you on your investing successes. Keep it up!!

-RMI

With 2 unused IFT's for August and a slight bounce I decided to jump back into the G fund COB today.

Breaking the rules yet again...bad to sell near a recent market bottom, unless you're pretty sure there's more bottoming to go. This drop is largely geopolitical and may play more of a role than just the charts, but the charts always matter. A look at the S&P (below) shows that if our last "bounce" was a "dead-cat"..then we can sometimes use the amplitude of the the 1st drop, and add it to the recent bounce. Doing so, shows a potential fall to near 1600 (horizontal blue line). This comes very close to the trend line of recent lows...so extrapolating both...possibly a 1600-1610 target.

SP.jpg

If we have bottomed and shoot up tomorrow, then I'll jump right back into stocks and today's IFT from S to G might simply amount to "monetary masturbation" but there is a thought process behind it. If missiles fly Thu-Fri and stocks shoot upward (Like Dutch's Alpha article pointed out happened in Iraq), then I can jump right back in. But this is different from Iraq, in that Syria is a much stronger Russian ally and props up the Russian arms industry with its purchases. Putin might make some big but vague threats (not much he can really do), and markets could fall even further. Combine that with the threat of a GOP led Gov't shutdown over Obamacare, and maybe we have some validation for a "mini" Hindenburg Omen (lol). If market falls below the 1600-1610 mark, the next target might be the 200 Day EMA, currently near 1575. That would be a worst case scenario though, and this market has proven to be very resilient, never coming near any "worst case scenario's" over the past 9 months....so we'll see.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

If we have bottomed and shoot up tomorrow, then I'll jump right back into stocks and today's IFT from S to G might simply amount to "monetary masturbation"

Beware the post holiday reversal. These pre-holiday days can have us leaning the wrong way. Just saying, a light volume up day tomorrow wouldn't mean all that much.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Beware the post holiday reversal. These pre-holiday days can have us leaning the wrong way. Just saying, a light volume up day tomorrow wouldn't mean all that much.

Yeah...good point...gotta keep Labor Day seasonality in mind. Thanks

Would not a reversal be to the upside?

Yes. I don't think I worded it right. The "reversal" from the larger trend happens before the holiday, then the post-holiday action resumes that larger trend, which is down. Yesterday and today's upside may be that reversal, and tomorrow, the Friday before Labor Day weekend, has a pretty positive bias. It's an Oscarism.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

It's an Oscarism.

By the way, Oscar thinks the holiday reversal was the drop this past Tuesday. I think that's a stretch.

Well, holding last IFT in hand and watching a downtrend counter the typical day b4 Labor Day up day, decided to go ahead and jump in.
Wanted to spread the potential wealth/risk a bit so went from 100% G to 50% S...40% I...10% C by COB today.
Accelerated selling later in the day, and brief dip buying at the end made me feel better about my decision.

Think that Syria threat (everyone's big worry) was blown too much out of proportion. Even Obama probably realizes he played his hand to quickly, too strongly.
Too many negatives of going hard into Syria (pissing off Russia, most of international community & both Dems and GOP).

If nothing big happens over the weekend, and a more mild, diplomatic solution evolves, a big buyback rally could ensue.

Also pays to be invested at the end of the month,. this way you can ride an early month uptrend, step aside and lock in gains, and have a 2nd IFT for a lower low, or when the danger clears.

But more risks ahead in September, namely another Gov't shutdown showdown...so any September rally could be short lived. Gonna have to stay nimble.

Have a great weekend fellow Laborers!

International markets in Europe and Asia had a HUGE day today...up 1.5% to 2.5%.
Should propel our markets Tuesday...and makes me glad I put 40% into the -I- fund Friday.

But watching the news tonight, it seems that the Neocons have infiltrated both parties...so the likelihood of some sort of US military response in Syria has gone up.
This could increase volatility...but with Obama hinting at limited, "no boots on the ground" type action, that seems to have taken a lot of fear out of the markets, which may have oversold based on that fear, hence the global stock bounce-back Monday.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

International markets in Europe and Asia had a HUGE day today...up 1.5% to 2.5%.
Should propel our markets Tuesday...and makes me glad I put 40% into the -I- fund Friday.

But watching the news tonight, it seems that the Neocons have infiltrated both parties...so the likelihood of some sort of US military response in Syria has gone up.
This could increase volatility...but with Obama hinting at limited, "no boots on the ground" type action, that seems to have taken a lot of fear out of the markets, which may have oversold based on that fear, hence the global stock bounce-back Monday.

Let's do it and get it over with.