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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #1201

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Yes... presume most of those surveyed there, indicating bullishness & less worry about inflation, are "dumb money". It strikes me that this finding doesn't jive with recent news survey reports that a lot of folks in USA are "feeling" like our economy is doing poorly. Hmm, makes me wonder if those are faux or skewed/ spun data and reporting by those in USA (also including China, Russia, Hungary, Turkey, etc.) who don't want the present POTUS to get good credit.

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  3. #1202

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FAAM View Post
    Yes... presume most of those surveyed there, indicating bullishness & less worry about inflation, are "dumb money". It strikes me that this finding doesn't jive with recent news survey reports that a lot of folks in USA are "feeling" like our economy is doing poorly. Hmm, makes me wonder if those are faux or skewed/ spun data and reporting by those in USA (also including China, Russia, Hungary, Turkey, etc.) who don't want the present POTUS to get good credit.
    I think you nailed it on the head. Politics. Dems might be doing the same thing if Trump was in the WH now and up for re-election, with 15 Million+ jobs, unemployment 3.4-3.9% for the past 2 1/2 years, 3 year GDP annual avg above 3%, major labpr shortage. Dems might be rehashing publicly how high inflation and esp gasoline was 2 years ago etc. It would be bullshit, just like its bullshit now. And what might keep US stocks rising, esp large caps, is that the US economy is right now and thru the past 3 years, the best in the world, looking at modern large countries. That "Relative" strength sends stock funds from all over the world, into US equities, which is why I think this bull has room to run.

    Remember, when People were insanely bullish back in 1996, and Greenspan coined the term "Irrational Exuberance", you still had 75% more room to run, on the SP for the next 3 years, before the party was truly over. Thats the big danger in being way too early for Armageddon. Where's Birchtree??? He'd be telling us something like "The pungent aroma of bull manure is so strong, all I can do is hold my nose and buy as much as I can" And from 2009 thru more than a decade he was totally right, when the rest of us kept listening to FBN saying "The Other Shoe Is About To Fall, Buy GOld Not Stocks"
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 06-12-2024 at 12:09 AM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 06/17/2024) 1st June IFT

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  5. #1203

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Remember, the economy is not the market, though sometimes they rhyme... there are lots of problems out there like jobs lost to non-citizens, crime, inflation still...
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  7. #1204

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Remember, the economy is not the market, though sometimes they rhyme... there are lots of problems out there like jobs lost to non-citizens, crime, inflation still...
    Actually the opposite...there are millions of jobs going unfilled. And the jobs that illegals are taking are usually the ones no whitebread person here wants, short-order cooks, changing sheets and scrubbing triolets in all major hotels and facilities, picking produce in hot farm fields, and various low-paying, manual labor jobs.
    If every unemployed worker took these currently 8.5 Million unfilled jobs we would still have at least 2 Million unfilled jobs. Understanding America’s Labor Shortage | U.S. Chamber of Commerce
    If we totally shut the border right now, half the hotels and fast food restaurants in the US would have to shut down, many construction jobs would get cancelled and the US economy would free-fall into a steep, deep recession.

    Crime is a constant, but violent crime is actually down sharply, and was much worse in the 80's when the economy surged. New FBI stats show '''historic''' declines in violent crime rate, with murder showing sharpest drop

    Inflation is way DOWN from 9% to the low 3's, close to the historical 30 year average...my friend, you're parroting the non-sensicle partisan bullshit out there, that is keeping sentiment from getting overly bullish, but that's actually a good thing for stocks.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 06/17/2024) 1st June IFT

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  9. Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Prefer all the facts, not just a FBI press release that doesn't disclose lack of data from large cities, you know, the safe ones like LA and NYC...

    FBI says crime has plummeted to start 2024 - but is missing a big part of the data | The Independent

    Semantics, maybe, but inflation is not down. The rate of inflation is decreasing, but not down by any stretch. It's a cumulative effect, additive or subtractive in some instances, but it surely isn't down.

    Access to this page has been denied (Link still works for me, SeekingAlpha)

    Jobs....have to agree we could use some outside labor sources. A free for all across the border from nearly every nation on earth isn't the remedy, and it's quite evident to see. May's jobs number are not a bright spot by any means and mostly ignored.
    625,000 full time jobs lost, replaced by 286,000 part time employees. The 4% unemployment numbers are farcical, and typically inaccurate, but the one consistently touted by everyone. However, a more accurate representation would be the U-6 unemployment number, currently standing at 7.4%.

    Access Denied (As does this one, BLS)

    "Standard Chartered estimates that nearly half the growth in non-farm payrolls reported by the Labor Department since October can be attributed to immigrant groups that include refugees, those seeking asylum and parolees, the bank’s Head of Global G10 FX Research and North America Macro Strategy Steve Englander and economist Dan Pan wrote in a research note. All told, those workers added 109,000 jobs per month. The average net monthly increase during that period was about 231,000."

    https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2024/06/04/what-bidens-immigration-order-means-for-the-job-market-00161379
    Last edited by voodoostation; 06-14-2024 at 09:11 AM. Reason: odd hyperlink...

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  11. #1206

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    One thing I'd like to caveat.

    In this day and age, our feelings and perceptions can largely be based on our social media bubble, which can also be separated from the actual reality of the economy. Kyla Scanlon (aka the human-centric analysist) delves into the economy (from a generational & social construct) and has some good reads on this topic.

    Her 1st book just came out last month.

    20240614-4.png

    Last edited by JTH; 06-14-2024 at 10:31 AM.
    Retired, 20F/80S_ BLOG: Stats for July, 2024 Stats


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  13. #1207

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Facts matter.

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    ...my friend, you're parroting the non-sensicle partisan bullshit out there, that is keeping sentiment from getting overly bullish, but that's actually a good thing for stocks.
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.

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  15. #1208

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Voodoo
    You've made 1 or 2 accurate albeit irrelevant points, regarding whats currently affecting the US Economy and most importantly our investment decisions.
    BUT...you've added a lot of bull$hit points, that I've seen stem from highly partisan news outlets...as I watch news from all spectrums.
    Was analyzing data this morning to maybe make an IFT but decided to hold off, so now I can easily answer and debunk many of these points, which I feel would lead anyone into making bad investment decisions today.

    Quote Originally Posted by voodoostation View Post
    Prefer all the facts, not just a FBI press release that doesn't disclose lack of data from large cities, you know, the safe ones like LA and NYC...

    FBI says crime has plummeted to start 2024 - but is missing a big part of the data | The Independent
    This one I see a lot from partisan news outlets, trying to amplify crime, leading up to election day.
    But I prefer an actual non-partisan Gov data figure, over a "spun" article from a tabloid.
    Yes NYC and LA did not report numbers, but from the article this has long since been the case, where only 2/3rds of police precincts report to the FBI.
    So if NYC,LA regularly didn't report to the FBI in the past, then its irrelevant, and including them now, but excluding them in previous years, would give you an invalid data trend ( I took Statistics in Grad School).
    And even your tabloid article acknowledges that overall crime in NYC is down, like it is in most parts of the country, but its specifically "Subway Crime" thats up sharply.
    However, for OUR purposes, national/global economy and investing, crime in 1 metro area, and only subway crime in another metro area is NOT something that impacts the economy from Florida to Texas to Tennessee to Utah (where I live now) and most areas in-between.

    Quote Originally Posted by voodoostation View Post
    Semantics, maybe, but inflation is not down. The rate of inflation is decreasing, but not down by any stretch. It's a cumulative effect, additive or subtractive in some instances, but it surely isn't down. Access to this page has been denied (Link still works for me, SeekingAlpha)
    This is one of the most laughable things I've heard, because this cumulative effect is nearly ALWAYS the case for the past 100+ years.
    Even when inflation is down at the Fed target rate of 2%, its ALSO ALWAYS CUMULATUVELY INCREASING.
    Its only when the economy is in a severe Recession or outright Depression, is where you actually see "Negative" Inflation, (aka Deflation) over the course of the year. This is extremely rare.
    And when the economy is performing better than average, that typically leads to a slight increase in inflation.
    And salaries also increased sharply, and have been outpacing inflation over the past 16 months. Just a moment...
    Otherwise your Alpha article was from 2022 and was calling for a Recession starting in January 2023 which did not happen....but it did accurately predict that CPI had peaked and would decrease, and that US stock indices would be positive by 10-15% in 2023 (S&P was actually up 24% in 2023), which seemed to be the main point of the article.


    Quote Originally Posted by voodoostation View Post
    Jobs....have to agree we could use some outside labor sources. A free for all across the border from nearly every nation on earth isn't the remedy, and it's quite evident to see.
    I agree that there needs to be some better controls on the border, but this is a political issue.
    The economic one, from both the GOP during Bush Years, and Today under Biden, is the "Inconvenient Truth" is that our economy is largely driven by cheap labor. And border crossings increase when the economy is good and decrease when US economy is bad (like 2009-2011 under Obama).
    Its sad to see Texas border towns being overrun, before illegal migrants looking mostly for work, fan out across the country, but this in no way would make me flee stocks, actually it would lead me to do the opposite, since it would indicate our Economy is attracting extra workers.

    Quote Originally Posted by voodoostation View Post
    May's jobs number are not a bright spot by any means and mostly ignored.
    625,000 full time jobs lost, replaced by 286,000 part time employees. The 4% unemployment numbers are farcical, and typically inaccurate, but the one consistently touted by everyone. However, a more accurate representation would be the U-6 unemployment number, currently standing at 7.4%.
    Access Denied (As does this one, BLS)
    OK this is total crap here...and here's why.
    For those who don't know U-3 is the total industry standard Unemployment Rate...U-6 is ALWAYS HIGHER because it counts part time workers who claim to be seeking full-time employment.
    The historical U-3 vs U-6 chart tells the whole story, that the current 7.1% U-6 rate is near 30 year historic lows, similar to 2019 and much lower than, say 2018, when the U-6 rate was 8-9%.
    So any news outlet that tries to poo-poo the regular U-3 Unemployment rate by pointing at the U-6 rate is likely a bull$hit fake or partisan news site.

    U-6 v U-3 Unemployment Historical.jpg


    Quote Originally Posted by voodoostation View Post
    "Standard Chartered estimates that nearly half the growth in non-farm payrolls reported by the Labor Department since October can be attributed to immigrant groups that include refugees, those seeking asylum and parolees, the bank’s Head of Global G10 FX Research and North America Macro Strategy Steve Englander and economist Dan Pan wrote in a research note. All told, those workers added 109,000 jobs per month. The average net monthly increase during that period was about 231,000."

    https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2024/06/04/what-bidens-immigration-order-means-for-the-job-market-00161379
    Yeah that estimate is probably correct IMHO, but has ZERO to do with investment decisions of not being in equities. Since we are deep below the statistical "Full Employment" level where the U-3 Unemployment rate is 5%, and in a severe labor shortage, there's less people who are seeking full time employment, its often people already working a part-time job, taking another part-time job, or retirees looking for a part-time job only.
    Reason its so hard to get below 5% unemployment is there's always a group of workers who leave the workforce, to go to college and get a better job, drop out for maternity/paternity leave, take time off to travel the world (I have a few friends who are doing this now), as well as bad workers who get fired for cause, not to mention the over 1 million adults being incarcerated and no longer part of the workforce.

    Look Voodoo, I'm sorry if I sounded a bit harsh, and I wouldn't do this on anyone else's page, but this page is mine, so....
    Bottom line...as opposed to "Irrational Exuberance"...I fear that you are using "Irrational Fear" based on false, partisan spun news sources, to keep an overly negative view of the economy and more importantly, the market, perhaps keeping yourself out of stocks much of the time. How's that working out this year so far?
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 06-14-2024 at 12:37 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 06/17/2024) 1st June IFT

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  17. Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I actually mostly agree with you, FWM, and no worries about any appearance of harshness. Crime has gone down, at least since our favorite global indoor camping adventure. Quite a few news organizations of varying degrees of the political spectrum have run stories similar to the one I presented earlier. Some chalk it up to perception versus government statistics. Some bring up, as the first did, the lack of data from certain parts of the country. Personally, I feel it's both. There's been an increase in violent crimes since 2014. I can agree with the following quote, "Still, experts say that while the extent of the decline might be exaggerated, the overall trend is correct." (US News, 6/12/24)

    For inflation, I still stand behind my point, laugh if you must. We know inflation rises, kind of the definition, as is the description of deflation. That's not being debated. Point I should have attempted and completely didn't was the quick jump in inflation. That's the sticking point to most, I believe. We know prices climb, and rarely do they ever fall. It was and is the dramatically condensed timeframe that it has happened in that is shocking, at least to me. Should have been the point I was making, and I apologize for that.

    Outside Labor. Both parties, if we want to go the political route, have some desire to see foreign workers of all skill levels come here. Of that, I believe we can agree. And I believe we can agree neither have done a particularly good job of it.

    U-3 vs. U-6. Considering the recent jobs report regarding fewer full time and more part time jobs being reported, I consider the U-6, along with the U-3.

    I'm not trying to be partisan, chalk it up to perception. I also read many sources, both with and against my political leanings, and trying to find unbiased, unfiltered cold, hard facts is a daily struggle. I dig, and I learn. I'm newly engaged with learning the financial ins and outs, and boy, there's some garbage to wade through there. I'm not picking a fight or looking for an argument, just more data points and others' perception and knowledge to keep finding the best way I can improve. I appreciate you responding and look forward to much more down the road.

    As for how I'm doing... I've never been a good gambler, better blind squirrel than anything. S fund and the DOW have not been favorable to me this year. May lick my wounds in G fund next week and contemplate C fund and the meaning of life. Until then, hope you enjoy your weekend and watching Montana get a June snowfall.

    P.S. I don't have a fear of the markets, maybe an irrational hope for some of the good fortune from the S&P to rub of on the DOW. Call me a hopeless romantic, or dreamer...

    Last edited by voodoostation; 06-14-2024 at 01:31 PM. Reason: addendum

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  19. #1210

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Using 1st June IFT to lock in gains and ditch the S-Fund.
    Going 100% G COB Today.

    Plan on re-entering C Fund only before months end, maybe.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 06/17/2024) 1st June IFT

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  21. #1211

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Looks like the market is going to give you a nice parting gift today. FireWeatherMet Account Talk
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #1212

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Was thinking that the charts, esp on the S&P looked a bit over-extended 2 trading days ago...and used 1st June IFT to exit stocks.
    Afternoon market action seems to be confirming my beliefs that the 2 month run we had from our mid-April low, is taking a bit of a pause.
    In reality it might only be a pause in the last 4 week run-up since we did release a bit of steam with a 2% dip that began the 3rd week of May.

    In addition to the chart looking overextended, last weeks Sentiment Survey came in with the most Bullish reading since mid-May, and the new survey, which isn't final, has nearly identical Bullish values.
    Sentiment Survey.jpg

    Another reason I exited earlier this week, was after locking in almost 1.4%, there was a pretty big open gap about 2 1/2% lower from where were earlier today...so figured we would get there sooner rather than later, given the over-extended chart. Sometimes you drop down 2-3% right to that gap fill, or sometimes you rise another 3% after selling, and have a drop of 6% to fill that gap. Either way its a winning move to ext and then re-enter, so that's the plan in the coming days.
    There's another smaller gap about 8% down, but don't think macro economic news is so bad as to drag us down that far, other than an unforeseen "Black Swan".
    So watching events with my powder dry, and looking to re-enter 100% C (ditching lagging small caps) whenever we fill that gap.

    SP.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 06/17/2024) 1st June IFT

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