Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

I expect that the Dow still has roughly ten to fifteen % gains ahead before cycle peak in mid 2015. Market valuation - not market level - is what historically has mattered to future returns. I'm betting on another double-digit year for stocks in 2015. Remember, throughout recorded history, such breakouts following a lengthy trading range have always been followed by a multi-year secular bull market - primary trend should remain up for years. The rally from the 1982 lows to the 1999 highs encompassed some 10,700 points. We've got a lot more road ahead to travel yet. Many portfolio managers are now in the disbelief phase of this bull market - just what I like.

Before I go this evening I'd like to reiterate that this market continues to follow the 1995 breakout trajectory - investors are pouring more money into stock mutual funds in the U.S. than they have in 14 years. We are in for one very nice ride upward in my opinion. There I said it.

It's looking that way, like you said. See my post to uscfanhawaii about retirement and such. I'm back. Always enjoy your posts, wisdom.

Writing to my wife's cousin in Poland, I compared Putin to Woland in the Master and Margarita (Bulgakov), he replied, no, I think Behemoth. Maybe so, btw, it's relevant to your post -- if someone can hang the bell on this cat, it can only improve everything going forward. See my post to uscfanhawaii. I've got a job to do, squeezing the red color out of penny, and I will do it. Go Gators!

And you said it very well!

Stocks rose almost every time the Fed increased interest rates - I say bring on the pain. This market is discounting the future. There is no real end in sight for the S&P 500 rally - no overhead resistance. So I suspect stock prices will rise sharply in the next 12 months. The risk of a bull market top remains remote. Now all I need to see is an improving outlook for future coal prices. History shows that virtually every time an investment style has been declared dead, the market takes a turn that ultimately resurrects it - so I will hold my coal positions.

My oceanic account the last four days was anemic: +$20K, -$7, -$7K, +$28K for a grand gain of +$34K. I suspect next week we'll continue with our multi-decade Supercycle bull market and I'll sweep up at least +$100K. The market will easily make new continued highs in the next two or three months, possibly significant new highs. It's also bullish that the VIX is below 16 once again. I think the trend is relentless with the possibility of a parabolic blow off mania somewhere into the future. Remember: Greed is good. I'm expecting Yellen to keep rates low for a very, very, long time. The Fed may not see its 2% inflation objective achieved until after the end of 2016. All the major yearly Kress cycles are up for this year. I plan to have tons of fun.

And the bull rolls on. "Investors pulled $11 billion from money-market funds in the week ended Feb. 18 and put $13.5 billion into bond and stock funds, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch." "Volatility and trading volumes have collapsed this month as U.S. stocks have marched to fresh records, a respite that few investors foresaw and few expect to continue. For now, the return to placid markets is being welcomed by buy and hold investors who have been rewarded in recent years for sitting tight."

BT I agree with your buy n hold being rewarded. I'm Living proof.... I checked my account balance and was happily surprised by the dollar increase in just the 1st quarter with just gains on my account since I no longer contribute to my account since retiring. I have also been sitting on my I fund for a long time with 1500 shares waiting for it to make a move. Looks like it is starting to float up whoop whoop.

When your Portfolio reaches $100 million, I plan on coming back and asking you for Small Loan. I'm good for it ! Honest ! :-)

GE's stock breakout suggests Dow's rally is real. When GE's stock is rising, the broader stock market usually does the same. Is Japan really buying 50% stocks - will Mario do the same? Right now you have to buy high and then buy higher.