Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Here comes the emotional panic capitulation day and it may be the bottom - everything happens so much quicker when you deal with the hedge funds. I'm holding tight for now all around and will probably take opportunity to do some select buying. I still have many dividends due to be reinvested the rest of this month. Let's see where the market goes.

You've got to be kidding this time, birch. Go look at the few facts that are being leached out of Japan, and it is just plain no good. No bottom in sight, just some stupid afternoon knife-catching. And another day of the same, and another, and another. Like yesterday, and today, and - probably - tomorrow. This isn't panic selling, it's reality setting in.

Intrepid hasn't moved an inch, either, if you recall his thread - he thinks the market was "overdue" for a downward move, and that oil was just an excuse (catalyst). What do you call an uncontrolled release from nuclear reactors near tokyo. Chopped Liver?

And there could be more to come - when QE2 expires - and there's nothing to replace it, and even if there was a QE3 - could it overcome this nuclear mess?

Just an intractable situation - unlike you - I have no intention of seeing where this goes; if there's a deadcat - and I see absolutely no reason for one, it could be sold into with a vengeance bordering on the dot-com boom (I know, I sold into a 20% deadcat, from 1,039 to 1,249 ten years ago; and never saw it again until earlier this year).

So - while the market may be going down, we might not have seen the worst, yet.

I see lots of folks bailed to the G-Fund today. They may come to regret that decision. So be it, I hope they choke on their own vomit...

You are great Ameoba.

Negative oppostion energizes the Birch.

He will ride the market back up and get it all back and more.

AND Be sure to let us know when they evacuate Tokyo, K?

Originally Posted by JTH

I see lots of folks bailed to the G-Fund today. They may come to regret that decision. So be it, I hope they choke on their own vomit...

Ouch! thats kinda hard there, aint it?

Originally Posted by JTH

I see lots of folks bailed to the G-Fund today. They may come to regret that decision. So be it, I hope they choke on their own vomit...

I hope you're right J, my 100% I fund allocation is making me vomit this week. At this point I have to stay committed and ride it out, I refuse to lock in this loss...my yearly return may suffer, but I just can't lock it in.

Originally Posted by JTH

I see lots of folks bailed to the G-Fund today. They may come to regret that decision...

AAAAHHHHhhhh - RUN AWAY!

I may be oversimplifying things, but when the 3rd largest economy takes a huge hit like this, AND we still don't know the full outcome of the devastation to their economy, AND we still don't know the full impact of the nuclear crisis, AND seeing the way the stock market reacted to smaller economies like Spain, Portugal etc.... I think there is very good potential for more stock market downturn over the next several weeks. Yes, there may be some minor rebounds, but you have to factor in upcoming Japanese economic reports, loss of jobs, increase in liquidity......look at the big picture, the global picture.

I'd rather skip out on a few dead-cat bounces and wait for the real bottom.
Just my very unskilled big picture viewpoint.

Good luck to everyone.
Bryan

So we get a modest consolidation of 8% - we can get at least three of those in a year - but the bull market is not over. Now is the time to draw up the buy list - I've got mine. This puppy can turn on a dime with any good news of stability from Japan - wait for it.

Birch, I love your optimistic view... it's quite encouraging sometimes. You truly are one of the very few who always sees the positive potential in market downturns.

Some food for thought:

1. California is the 8th largest economy in the world. (GDP ~ 2.? Trillion)
2. Japan is the 3rd. (GDP ~ 5.39 trillion)
3. Japan debt is about 200% of their GDP (will double check this figure)
4. Portugal ranks in at 37 (GDP ~ .223 trillion)
5. Greece is at 31 (GDP ~ .305 trillion...roughly 5% of Japan's)
6. The unknown in this situation is the potential devastation due to the nuclear disaster.
7. Japan is heavily in debt compared to their GDP, and this extra pressure on their economy will require substantial help from the world economy.

Our markets have seen decent corrections during the crisis of 4 & 5 above.

I sure hope you are right in thinking only an 8% consolidation (and you know way more about this stuff than me).

My prayers are with all the Japanese people.
Again, good luck to all!
Bryan

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fea...ign-2011-03-15

Making a few flower power purchases today: INT, VHI, SHS, AHD. I've now made 486 DCA type purchases since 7/31/10 into my oceanic base - the risk is now that they end up hurting me rather than helping me - but I'm still very bullish on the global economy.