Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Birchtree

The Cycle of Economic Deflation During 2009.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article8179.html

Birch,
This breaks my heart seeing a post like this from you.

Hang in there my friend - once the BS infilltrates in the system it's a long process - hopefully in the end we'll all be better off.

Confucius Say:

You must be IN to WIN

No one know when rocket take off -
................therefore you must be ready

"...the skies are clearing for a four to five year bull market: surging liquidity, low interest rates, declining corporate bond yields, declining TED spread, low valuations, volatility has peaked, the US dollar rally has ended, global stock markets are making higher lows, and a huge amount of cash on the sidelines."

http://safehaven.com/article-12272

Originally Posted by Birchtree

"...the skies are clearing for a four to five year bull market: surging liquidity, low interest rates, declining corporate bond yields, declining TED spread, low valuations, volatility has peaked, the US dollar rally has ended, global stock markets are making higher lows, and a huge amount of cash on the sidelines."

http://safehaven.com/article-12272

Hey birch: I dunno who you're quoting, but the TED spread is still at 115 bp's; roughly 2.5X historical; the declining bond yields are a consequence of increasing bond value; there is no "cash on the sidelines", if you include debt; a peak in VIX does not mean the current VIX is low (45+); and low valuations don't mean they won't go lower.

Sounds like alot of bull to me. Hope you have a picture of the market at 1,000 to look at; bcz that's the only way you'll see it again this year, maybe next.

Birch,
I'm standing on the edge of the cliff - holding myself (so I don't lose control when I jump in).

That's right Birch - I'm jumping in and I'm going all the way.

50% C Fund/50% S Fund

WHY?? Because that's the U.S.A. and I'm not about to jump into someone else's Markets - when I served my country and by golly I'm going in now to do my part.

WHY?? Because the FEAR has hit - and the Pansies are taking over. So when they get out - I go in.

WHY?? Because days like today are meant for those with nerves of steel (or maybe those with little brains)

So the BOTTOM LINE - The BULL may not be here for awhile - but up days are a guaranteed event - even in the worst of weakness.

Could today end up being a Kangaroo tail day? Any volume right now is on the sell side at 300 million to 5 million - it's time for the bulls to step up. Oil could possibly break below $35 - so I'm just riding the cycles waiting on my next contribution.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

"...the skies are clearing for a four to five year bull market: surging liquidity, low interest rates, declining corporate bond yields, declining TED spread, low valuations, volatility has peaked, the US dollar rally has ended, global stock markets are making higher lows, and a huge amount of cash on the sidelines."

http://safehaven.com/article-12272

Birchtree, could you repost or update the link to this. I'm getting a dead link, but I am interested in the material. Thanks for posting it.

Here you go anthony

http://safehaven.com/article-12292.htm

"Since the TED spread peak of 4.65% on October 10, the measure has eased to a five month low 0.97% - well above the 38 point spread it averaged during the twelve month prior to the start of the crisis, but nevertheless a strong move in the right direction. Similar to the TED spread, the narrowing in the LIBOR-OIS spread since October is also a move in the right direction."

http://safehaven.com/article-12319.htm

AMEN, Steady!! I hear you and I either have nerves of steel or no brain - cause I am all in. The only way is see is up and I'm hoping for a bounce. I'm riding it all the way for now....

"Mutual fund and hedge fund managers can't buy shares in these companies right now -- but you can."
Why are they locked out and how broad is this rule? tia
Jumped back in to FCX and SLW today.