Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

Well Birch, I'm going your route a bit at a time.

Was out before all this started last month.

Went back in yesterday on the big downside again.

Picked up about 10% more shares with this.

I'll play a little bit here and a little bit there, and see what goes.

What I put in yesterday, will stay there now.

I could possibly, if I do it right or call it right, LOL pick up near the 40% mark of added shares.

We shall see. Thanks again, and Thanks To All.

Ah, the putrid smell of Donkey dung. We all remember the caustic remarks made against Indy Mac by Sen. Schumer that caused a depositor run on the bank and eventual failure. It now appears that several heavy Donkey money contributors were inside the bank looking at assets to acquire. Once the bank failed those assets were a lot cheaper. Blame Oaktree Capital Mamagement, Ares Capital Management and Fortress Investment Group - all generous donors to Sen. Schumer. What a creep this guy is.

It's been almost 21 years since the current level of fear (VIX 81.5) prevailed in U.S. financial markets - that was right after the 1987 crash when stocks plummeted 23% in one day. So many sentiment indicators are screamingly bullish because investors are so frightened. Because the stock market is a discounting mechanism and most of the current and future economic woes are already reflected in stock prices. Indeed, the stock market generally turns up about six months before the economy does. Be prepared for rat-a-tat-tat. Corporate insiders are still bullish and buying their company stock, as a matter of fact, they've been buying all through 2008 just like I have. They are as bullish now as they were at the July lows. Prior to the current lows, the last time corporate insiders were this bullish was near the end of the 2000-2002 bear market. My sagacity in undulating.

The economic slowdown and declining commodity prices have eased the nation's consumer inflation rate, which surged to 5.6% over the summer and now is 4.6%. Annual inflation in the U.S. is likely to turn negative for at least several months next year on declining energy and food prices. The risk of deflation was among the factors leading the Fed to keep interest rates at only 1% earlier this decade. The Fed rate is now 1.5% but I suspect it will be lowerr in coming months. How long they leave rates lowerr will be the question. I knew Bernanke was trying to kill the housing industry increasing the Fed funds rate 17 times. Where will the next bubble pop up - SPX type stocks?

The most controversial move in the TARP so far is an obscure IRS ruling that gives banks the unfettered ability to use the tax losses of banks they acquired. I've seen this strategy used by corporations buying insurance companies. The new tax benefit applies to already completed bank deals done in the past three years, and probably or possibly even older ones.

This is the Farm

Originally Posted by Steadygain

This is the Farm

Gorgeous!!!

Originally Posted by wv-girl

Gorgeous!!!

Thank you - my sweet wonderful friend !!

I am pitching the old computer and that was my desktop picture. So of course I thought of my WV-beauty and how nice it would be if I could put it here. As luck would have it Birch's Home was open - so I felt comfortable putting it here (in the miriculous event it actually worked).

Whenever I think of WV - this is where I go.

OK Birch....I'm gone....but thanks.

I just finished buying 16 wall flowers for today - looking forward to tomorrow to try and do the same thing. That makes 86 buys on this bottom process. Many more to go.

When you cash out in 20 years, what currency will you be reaping?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...fDc&refer=home

I just added another 10 wall flowers to my buy list tonight after watching a run of the tape. I'll never have enough money to give them all a home. I even had to go back and double up on some previous purchases made last week that showed some spunk today. I now have 186 stocks on the list and have only purchased 86 so far - Allah help me if we get another 400 pointer tomorrow. If the LEH credit default swaps are not a complete failure there may be some additional buying. Profitability resides in the ride ahead.

Dennis - permabull #1

Birch,
I've decided to BAIL.

The Government recently moved everything to G FUND; the FED just threw out at least another $400 Billion for somthing else and has thrown out way past the $700 Billion required by Congress. Banks are merging and they now have CONTROL and do not have to move the flow; instead they are holding on to better secure their position.

Almost everything we've been dealing with the past several months is listening to a warning: "The hacket is falling"

I believe it has fallen and the real pain is now showing itself. So as I explained on my Thread - I'm better off staying in Safety over the next year and a drop or gain here and there is of no significance.

I certainty understand your view; and if it were simply me I would ride it out and keep buying - but it is no longer just my view and SAFETY does have it's "peace of mind" over difficult times.

So I'm out of the game for a while - today is my last move for the year.

Originally Posted by Steadygain

Birch,
I've decided to BAIL.

The Government recently moved everything to G FUND; the FED just threw out at least another $400 Billion for somthing else and has thrown out way past the $700 Billion required by Congress. Banks are merging and they now have CONTROL and do not have to move the flow; instead they are holding on to better secure their position.

Almost everything we've been dealing with the past several months is listening to a warning: "The hacket is falling"

I believe it has fallen and the real pain is now showing itself. So as I explained on my Thread - I'm better off staying in Safety over the next year and a drop or gain here and there is of no significance.

I certainty understand your view; and if it were simply me I would ride it out and keep buying - but it is no longer just my view and SAFETY does have it's "peace of mind" over difficult times.

So I'm out of the game for a while - today is my last move for the year.

Steady,

What do you mean "The Government recently moved everything to G FUND"? I agree with you move, by the way. I am already on the lilly pad - I may not catch the initial updraft at the start of the next bull market, whenever that is, but I think there is still significant downside risk in the market. Investing is not just about making gains but also about controlling downside risk.