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Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

  1. #13

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    I'm wore out from waxing a car for Mom. I need some graphics. I'm serious, give me some graphics to lighten the load of a good market day.

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  3. #14

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    I notice that today they (probably hedge funds) are pounding my oils, coal and chemicals in my outside account. That's alright, I've been thinking about adding to my economically sensitive stock positions anyway. Maybe I have some dividends due that can help-I'll have to check. Sure is a great way to buy if you can handle the short term depreciation in value. C'mon boys put your foot into my back, I am a contrarian and proud of it, do your damage. Live free or die.

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  5. #15

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    James Cramer on Mad Money seems to have turned pessimistically bearish. That is probably a classic sign for a fellow like me. Now everyone in the viewing domain will have that sense of Fed doom- a recession is coming. That's great! Money is running to the bond market (scared money) lowering rates. Cramer used to be so called smart inside money when he ran a hedge fund. He obviously can't see more than 2 feet in front of himself. If I'm wrong about the explosive turn that is coming, I'll just patch with more bandaids. I can afford to wait....1 million is just around the corner.

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  7. #16

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    That's it ya'll, I'm gonna buy stock in band-aids!!!!:l

    Sorry Birch......I couldn't help myself...

    :dude:
    The Technician (escapades at times as Carnac)

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  9. #17

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    Birchtree wrote:
    If I'm wrong about the explosive turn that is coming, I'll just patch with more bandaids. I can afford to wait....1 million is just around the corner.
    I'll stick my neck out a little for you today, Birchtree.

    Here's hoping, Birchtree and some extra
    But in case, this may be better than the bandaids

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  11. #18

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    The Technician wrote:
    That's it ya'll, I'm gonna buy stock in band-aids!!!!:l

    Sorry Birch......I couldn't help myself...

    :dude:
    Cute... and might be true the way the market is going...




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  13. #19

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    I was definitely in some kind of a bear hug yesterday. I said they could put their foot on my back, but the aim ended up lower, if you know what I mean in polite terms. I don't mind taking a hit but $25K in one day is a bit much. This is my outside account I'm referring to. Since 3/7 I've given back $124K in asset depreciation. I have taken $44,000 in profit so far all done due to sacrifice. There are just so many good buys in this market that I have tp take opportunity. When I look back 3 months from now I will wish I was even more aggressive. This was a good retest. The 1995 graph that Tom is showing is only a glimpse of what is to come.

    I have a whole list of reasons to remain bullish-which I will discuss when I get back from dinner. And I appreciate the graphics WW. Do you have one with a bull up a tree? Dennis

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  15. #20

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    Birchtree wrote:
    Do you have one with a bull up a tree?
    I hope it's o.k. that I posted the pictures that I found.






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  17. #21

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    Greg,

    Thanks for the pics-looks like how I feel.

    Just 12 weeks ago, the Dow was trading at a four-year high, less than 7% below its all-time peak at 11722.98. A few weeks ago the Dow had its worst day in two years when evert major index fell to new lows for the year. These declines have spooked normal investors, but not the renegade contrarian. Blame for the slide has been placed on a combination of earnings warnings, weak economic data, Fed rate hikes, rising oil prices, and an expanding trade deficit. At present all these indicators and data have essentially reversed-but the funk continues. Could be the many dumb hedge funds reducing risk-they will all eventually have to buy back in.

    To me the greater risk is being out of the market-not being in. I have been in this position many times over the yeras and I'm still around-bigger than ever. Every time I get hurt or intentionally hurt myself, my portfolio grows larger. I'm showing TSP participants my strategy so they can get an idea of the potential that is available to them. Most of what I do is designed to be long term-with flexibility of course. I really don't like taking profits unless there is an advantage to buy more shares cheaper. Taxes are also a consideration at this point.

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  19. #22

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    While it may seem like the end of the world to some, the Dow is still up 38% or so from its low point in 2002. Now that was a bear market-but it was ending and was more painful than this correction we are in now. The degree of negativity was equal to 1929. That 3000 point run from 3/03 was somekind of sweet. I was picking raspberries in the bear patch long before the bull started. Kind of like the squril storing nuts for another day, I collect stocks.

    Interest rates have been going up, but in both real and nominal terms rates are very low. And I think the Fed now will pause at 3% and watch. Between 1995 and 1999, when the sp500 was rising at an average annual rate of 25.7% the fed-funds rate averaged 5.4%. Close to twice as high as today's 3%. The real rate (rate minus inflation) in the late '90s averaged 3%, while today it is virtually zero.

    There is still job creation, still low mortages, still benign inflation rates and good profit momentum. Forecasts for business profits have been improving since the year began, not declining. Money has been moving into Treasury bonds, damping yields, which has the effect of lowering many market interest rates. That is good news for the economy, for consumers and for businesses, not to mention my portfolio.

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  21. #23

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    The almighty dollar every one worries about is not reaching for a new high, it is just trying to find an equilibrium or stable plateau trading range. US products still maintain an edge when competing only now there is more reasonable elasticity. The trade deficit will shrink in time, until then it's a good thing. Why worry about a global economic slowdown because oil drops, be content that there is little secular inflation.The Fed will be satisfied to pause-and when the market realizes that off we go on my rocket ride.

    I was standing on the sidewalk to day when 50 million Frenchman passed by and guess who was walking behind them in tandem-it was Chicken Little. I turned and headed in the opposite direction.

    We had a six year run inthe '90s and now we have had a six year sideways movement to correct the excess gains. 3/99 the Dow was at 10000-today the Dow is at 10000. Time to move forward and upward. How high who knows-how long who cares just GO. Dennid

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  23. #24

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    I've been thinking over the weekend-yes I so think-about inflation and why the talking heads are so jittery. There is a political reason the Fed will pause in June. Inflation is around 2.9% to 3.1% above where it was a year ago-in line with its average growth rate since 1990. The core CPI is still at 2.2% ahead of year earlier levels. That is below the 2.9% average since 1990. If inflation is that low now, it could get dangerously low if there was a recession. Remember, it wasn't that long ago the Fed was worried about deflationary risks, that is how we got a 1% Fed rate. The Fed does not want to run the risk of creating a recession, the world is not safe enough for a recession right now. They might even pause in the context of higher inflation, counting on a slower economy (Goldilocks economy) to damp price gains. Productivity continues with positive momentum and wage gains are still moderate. I get a 3.6% gain in August, just ahead of inflation. But I also put my money where my mouth is-this will not be the last bear type correction we encounter on the way to Dow 13000 or sp500 at 1600. "I want my Maypo" Dennis



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