Thanks for posting. Is ESP for Extra-Sensory Perception? Just wondering. It could certainly help us if it's reliable.
Buy & Hold
Here is a chart of TSP funds that have existed since 7/29/2005. There have been a lot of ups and downs along the way plus the temptation to try and avoid large drops. Open the image in a new tab to see the entire chart.
Here are Buy and Hold statistics for the funds sorted by total return and including the largest drops. The Common Stock fund had the highest total return with similar draw-downs to the other stock funds. It is my baseline.My goal is to build a mechanical trading system with better returns and less severe draw-downs. Feel free to check my work and suggest improvements as that is the point of posting this stuff here.
Last edited by esptimer; 11-10-2022 at 12:18 AM.
This post is conjecture and might be wrong. Always consult a Licensed Financial Advisor before making any investment decision.
Thanks for posting. Is ESP for Extra-Sensory Perception? Just wondering. It could certainly help us if it's reliable.
50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!
TSP Timer wasn't allowed as a username. ESP rhymes with TSP plus I will need all of my psychic energy to compensate for the Thrift Savings Plan trading restrictions.
Buy & Hold Blend
I tried Buying & Holding a blend of funds (like a static Lifecycle fund) to see how it affects returns and drawdowns. Fund percentages ranged from 0% to 100% in 10% increments.
It doesn't seem to make much difference risk-wise and the Common Stock Fund continued to rule them all over the long term.
This post is conjecture and might be wrong. Always consult a Licensed Financial Advisor before making any investment decision.
Nobody just dumps their money into TSP and lets it ride. We're constantly adding to it, and that affects returns a great deal.
A more realistic portfolio would be one that includes stocks/bonds such as 70/30, 60/40 or 50/50. The returns are not much different, the risk of max draw down is lower, and often the rise out of the bear market low is quicker.
Yes, sorry. We have TSP Timing (Revshark) and Intrepid Timer, so a username of TSP Timer may suggested that this account was part of our premium services. Several years ago I stopped allowing "tsp" as part of a username.
But welcome ESP Timer. Maybe you're onto something!
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
I was a buy and holder until covid. Ater spending time and doing research, I have a better understanding of the charts and realize NOBODY knows for sure what the market will do.
My second strategy included all combinations of TSP funds in 10% increments. No low draw-down strategy made it into the top 30 gainers.
Including periodic contributions needlessly complicates the calculation and comparison of potential strategies. If I come up with a workable system then I will include contributions in the model. Does a 100k starting value and 1k per month contribution sound like a reasonable scenario?
EMA/SMA Crosses
I added EMA/SMA crosses, color coded charts (green = buy, black = sell) and the TSP trading rules (one buy per month and transactions have to wait until the next business day's close). I tried a million crosses for the C fund. Buy and Hold had a 356% gain since inception. 100+ crosses beat that but most of them were edge cases that randomly skipped large drops due to how slowly they reacted. Here is a decent cross that had a 380% gain although I don't much confidence in it as it did not react fast enough to avoid the 2019 plunge.
cross.jpg
I hoped that a million crosses would find hidden patterns in the price data. That didn't work out and they don't seem like a good automated trading solution as it is hard to score the results and I had to look at the top 30 charts to pick a decent strategy. I might try the Turtle Trading rules next. Perhaps they still work.
This post is conjecture and might be wrong. Always consult a Licensed Financial Advisor before making any investment decision.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
The Turtle Trading System covers each of the decisions required for successful trading:
Markets - What to buy or sell
Position Sizing - How much to buy or sell
Entries - When to buy or sell
Stops - When to get out of a losing position
Exits - When to get out of a winning position
Tactics - How to buy or sell
The Original Turtle Trading Rules can be found at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Slj...5yF/view?pli=1
This post is conjecture and might be wrong. Always consult a Licensed Financial Advisor before making any investment decision.
ESP, can't get to the link, from work anyway... is there a website, or is it a publication of some kind? We have to be careful of copyrights and posting related content...
At any rate, we have to get you off page one in the MAT list. Come on, folks, roll in on this thread!
50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
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