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Thread: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

  1. #13

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    Genus: EbbChartus

    Introduction: We have quantifiable chart patterns in the ebbchart; that much is known. The signals coming from the C, S and I-fund give the chart patterns three different perspectives with which to track the market. It's like having a chart with an xyz-axis instead of just xy (flat). Dang, where's the 3D glasses when you need one?

    -- ebb

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  3. #14

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    I'm also going to try to keep this thread alive for those who can't access the premium pages.

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  5. #15

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    TNA (2011): MAY (W 11, L 10, +1.32%); JUN (W 12, L 10, +3.07%); JUL (W 13, L 7, +28.02%); AUG (W 10, L 13, +27.66%); SEP (W 12, L 9, +14.66%); OCT (W 10, L 11, +32.42%); NOV (W 10, L 11, +32.89%); DEC (W 10, L 11, -26.05%). TNA (2012): JAN (W 14, L 6, +17.05%).

    EbbChart TNA signals (MAY-DEC): 88/170 52% (buy signals -- 52/102 51%; short signals -- 36/68 53%). Gain (compounded): +154.64%. Positive on all months except for December. A total win-percentage of 52% doesn't look much, that is, until we see the losses on the flip side of the trade. In the same period, TNA only had a 49% win-percentage (loss of -52.67%). What a difference an edge as small as 3% can do!





    -- ebb

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  7. #16

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    Here’s a timeline of the ebbchart's powerful triple patterns after the market crash bottom of March 2009:

    S&P 500 (Apr. 17, 2009): 869.60

    1st wave) Bullish Pattern 5-5-5 (Apr. 20, 2009 – Jun. 28, 2010): 832.39 – 1074.57 (gain +29.09%).
    2nd wave) Bullish Pattern 5-5-5 (Jun. 29, 2010 – Jun. 09, 2011): 1041.24 – 1289 (gain +19.95%).
    3rd wave) Bearish Pattern 2-2-2 (Jun. 10, 2011 – Sep. 22, 2011): 1270.98 – 1129.56 (loss -12.37%).
    4th wave) Bullish Pattern 3-3-3-3 (Sep. 23, 2011 – Oct. 26, 2011): 1136.43 – 1242 (gain +9.95%).
    5th wave) Bullish Pattern 8-8-8 (Oct. 27, 2011 – xxxxxxxxxxxxxx): 1284.59 – xxxx (gain xxxx).
    6th wave) xxxx (info available only to current members)


    The 1st and 2nd wave cycle from bullish pattern 5-5-5 brought in tremendous gains (+54.86% compounded) and had gone on for more than two years.

    Then, a less potent 3rd wave from bearish pattern 2-2-2 emerged and resulted in a loss of -12.37% for the S&P 500. If an opposing wave shows up within 3 months of the previous wave, then it does not get a chance to get established. It is usually crushed or negated, but pattern 2-2-2 came in almost a year after the waning pattern 5-5-5 wave cycle. So in hindsight, pattern 2-2-2 should have been given due respect. Could have kept the system positive last year had I recognized it.

    The 4th wave coming from bullish pattern 3-3-3-3 reestablished the bull market.

    The 5th wave from bullish pattern 8-8-8 only strengthened the wave cycle for the bulls.

    The 6th wave coming from xxxx (info available only to current members).

    If you consider the Elliott wave theory (and wave counts) too esoteric or complicated, then check out the simple ebbchart patterns. And, just watch out for the triple patterns to appear. These long-term indicators should be looked at as aberrations or anomalies that mark turning points in the market. Following the triple patterns since 2007 thru 2012 would have resulted in a gain of over 100% (50% S, 50% I). I discovered the triple patterns inside the ebbcharts about a year ago.

    -- ebb

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  9. #17

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    There are eight possible patterns that can turn up on the ebbchart each day. A pattern appearing in three consecutive trading days is called a triple pattern. It doesn't occur often, but I've learned to pay attention to it when it does (see post above).

    -- ebb

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  11. #18

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    TNA (2011): MAY (W 11, L 10, +1.32%); JUN (W 12, L 10, +3.07%); JUL (W 13, L 7, +28.02%); AUG (W 10, L 13, +27.66%); SEP (W 12, L 9, +14.66%); OCT (W 10, L 11, +32.42%); NOV (W 10, L 11, +32.89%); DEC (W 10, L 11, -26.05%). TNA (2012): JAN (W 14, L 6, +17.05%).

    EbbChart TNA signals (MAY-DEC): 88/170 52% (buy signals -- 52/102 51%; short signals -- 36/68 53%). Gain (compounded): +154.64%. Positive on all months except for December. A total win-percentage of 52% doesn't look much, that is, until we see the losses on the flip side of the trade. In the same period, TNA only had a 49% win-percentage (loss of -52.67%). What a difference an edge as small as 3% can do!

    -- ebb
    Great numbers, Ebb. Just so people know, TNA is very volatile and considering the transaction fees for each trade, may be your best choice. But I wanted to point out that someone might consider using something like VXF, SSO, or SPY as less volatile alternatives. Your drawdowns will be smaller, but so will any gains.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.


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  13. #19

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    Someone asked me how the ebbchart’s triple patterns did before the market crash of 2008. I work with cycles all the time, so I knew there’s something in the ebbcharts that’s just waiting to be discovered. If you’re searching for a signal that accurately marks 90-day tops or bottoms, then read on. By the way, I found an error in my previous post (% gain for pattern 5-5-5), so I’ll just do the complete timeline in here:

    S&P 500 (Apr. 13, 2007): 1452.85

    1st wave) Bearish green pattern 1-1-1 (Apr. 16-18, 2007 – Aug. 02, 2007): 1468.33 – 1472.20 (gain +1.33%).
    Only triple pattern that didn’t work out (short term), but the missed gain is negligible.

    2nd wave) Bullish red pattern 6-6-6 (Aug. 03-07, 2007 – Dec. 06, 2007): 1433.06 – 1507.34 (gain +2.39%).
    This opposing wave had a chance to get established by appearing well after the 90-day cycle of pattern 1-1-1 (1st wave). Waves are strongest during its 90-day cycle.

    3rd wave) Bearish green pattern 4-4-4 (Dec. 07-12, 2007 – Jan. 31, 2008): 1504.66 – 1378.55 (loss -8.54%).
    Appearing a month after the 90-day cycle of pattern 6-6-6 (2nd wave) made this opposing wave a valid one.

    4th wave) Bearish green pattern 4-4-4 (Feb. 01-05, 2008 – Feb. 21, 2008): 1395.42 – 1342.53 (loss -2.61%).
    Same bearish wave to carry the torch further down the abyss.

    5th wave) Bearish green pattern 7-7-7 (Feb. 22-26, 2008 – Mar. 07, 2008): 1353.11 – 1293.37 (loss -3.66%).
    Another bearish wave cycle to strengthen the downward spiral.

    6th wave) Bearish green pattern 2-2-2 (Mar. 10-12, 2008 – Nov. 06, 2008): 1273.37 – 904.88 (loss -30.04%).
    There’s blood in the streets.

    null wave) Bullish red pattern 6-6-6 (May 12-14, 2008).
    Opposing wave showed up inside the 90-day cycle of pattern 2-2-2 (6th wave). Crushed and negated.

    7th wave) Bearish green pattern 7-7-7 (Nov. 07-11, 2008 – Apr. 17, 2009): 930.99 – 869.60 (loss -3.90%).
    The bearish cycle was about over, but the bears hang on.


    null wave) Bullish red pattern 6-6-6 (Nov. 17-19, 2008).
    Opposing wave showed up inside the 90-day cycle of pattern 7-7-7 (7th wave). It's crushed and negated.

    null wave) Bullish red pattern 3-3-3-3 (Jan. 20-23, 2009).
    Opposing wave showed up inside the 90-day cycle of pattern 7-7-7 (7th wave). Consider it null and void.

    8th wave) Bullish red pattern 5-5-5 (Apr. 20-22, 2009 – Jun. 28, 2010): 832.39 – 1074.57 (gain +23.57%).
    First appearance on the ebbchart. Market crash bottom (March 2009) soon to fade.

    9th wave) Bullish red pattern 5-5-5 (Jun. 29--Jul. 01, 2010 – Jun. 09, 2011): 1041.24 – 1289 (gain +19.95%).
    Back-to-back bullish waves brought in tremendous gains (+48.23%).

    10th wave) Bearish green pattern 2-2-2 (Jun. 10-14, 2011 – Sep. 22, 2011): 1270.98 – 1129.56 (loss -12.37%).
    Appearing almost a year after the last bullish pattern 5-5-5, a much needed correction served by this opposing wave.

    11th wave) Bullish red pattern 3-3-3-3 (Sep. 23-28, 2011 – Oct. 26, 2011): 1136.43 – 1242 (gain +9.95%).
    The bull rush resumed with this timely opposing wave.

    12th wave) Bullish red pattern 8-8-8 (Oct. 27-31, 2011 – xxxxxxxxxxxx): 1284.59 – xxxx (gain +xxxx).
    First appearance.

    13th wave) xxxx (info available only to current members).


    -- ebb

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  15. #20

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    Wow, TNA chart (using ebbchart signals) didn't look good a while back at -14.38%, but with today's gain of +2.64%, it has climbed all the way back Up to positive territory.

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  17. #21

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    TNA using ebbchart signals (JAN-MAR 21): 31/55 56% (buy signals -- 15/27 56%; short signals -- 16/28 57%). Gain: +7.34%.
    TNA using buy and hold (JAN-MAR 21): 27/55 49%. Gain: +38.76%.

    Last year, TNA using ebbchart buy/short signals had an edge of 3% (52% vs. 49%) over "buy and hold" TNA. Gains followed suit (+154.64% vs. -52.67%). This year, the edge has more than doubled at 7% (56% vs. 49%), but surprisingly, the gains are lagging (+7.34% vs. +38.76%). The ebbchart may give us the edge, but we can only expect what the market is willing to give.

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    TNA (2011): MAY (W 11, L 10, +1.32%); JUN (W 12, L 10, +3.07%); JUL (W 13, L 7, +28.02%); AUG (W 10, L 13, +27.66%); SEP (W 12, L 9, +14.66%); OCT (W 10, L 11, +32.42%); NOV (W 10, L 11, +32.89%); DEC (W 10, L 11, -26.05%). TNA (2012): JAN (W 14, L 6, +17.05%).

    EbbChart TNA signals (MAY-DEC): 88/170 52% (buy signals -- 52/102 51%; short signals -- 36/68 53%). Gain (compounded): +154.64%. Positive on all months except for December. A total win-percentage of 52% doesn't look much, that is, until we see the losses on the flip side of the trade. In the same period, TNA only had a 49% win-percentage (loss of -52.67%). What a difference an edge as small as 3% can do!

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  19. #22

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    It's times like this when having the ebbchart in your toolbox helps. If you thought of getting back into stocks three days ago, then seeing the "short" signals on the ebbchart would have given you pause...waited for a better entry point and perhaps saved yourself some losses. TNA chart has been updated -- you can click on my signature below to see the ebbchart's daily buy/short signals for this ETF.

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  21. #23

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    It's times like this when having the ebbchart in your toolbox helps. If you thought of getting back into stocks three days ago, then seeing the "short" signals on the ebbchart would have given you pause...waited for a better entry point and perhaps saved yourself some losses. TNA chart has been updated -- you can click on my signature below to see the ebbchart's daily buy/short signals for this ETF.
    Your system is a little difficult for me to comprehend, can you explain it a little bit?

    Also you showing long TNA as of today :?

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  23. #24

    Default re: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

    Hey law87. Ebb will probably respond to the comprehension part of the question, but just a reminder that this thread is not part of Ebb's premium threads so he wouldn't (or shouldn't) discuss the current positions here.

    You can find that here Premium Services Talk and clicking on the "EbbChart" sub-forum.

    Thanks!
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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