Thread: Daze823's Account Talk

Welcome and it's good that you are here to do what most of us are... make more than we would be in the L funds.

Good Luck !!

Welcome Daze823, sounds like you have a plan already that's a good start. Stick around and join in that's the way to learn
Best of luck
Norman

Daze823, Welcome aboard. This is a really great place to learn. The members here are great and I have learned a lot.

You mentioned that you want to make 7% a year and by taking an active roll in you and your wifes account you have the potential to do better. Just don't get greedy and put in some stops in you mind set. In other words if my account falls 3% I will go to the G fund or if my account hits 5% over a certain period I will go to the G fund. I wish I had followed this this advice in 2008 and 2011. I got into TSP at the very beginning and did very little with my account until a friend showed me what I could really do with my account. That was in 2004 and I got involved here in 2007. But here is an example of what you can accomplish and I am not as good as some of these other folks are.

2004 - 16.96%
2005 - 17.38%
2006 - 17.85%
2007 - 7.57%
2008 - 12.82%
2009 - 14.14%
2010 - 20.87%
2011 - 2.17%

Good Luck

I’ve spent some time reviewing TSP talk, gathering informationthat I believe will be useful in my endeavor to research, learn, and decide onhow to invest my TSP account. I’veprovided links for easy access to the information.

10 Month Modified SMAMethod
This method intrigues me, measured at the end and middle ofmonth, works perfectly for two trade limit, and appears to me that it will helpme take some of the emotion out of getting in or out too soon, but stilllimiting exposure to two weeks during a long bear run.

David.alan.williams has put in the time and work to create aeasy to use spreadsheet (that he has made available to everyone (thank youagain David). Read more or get thespreadsheet in his 10 Month Modified SMA Method Talk here: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?9113-10-Month-Modified-SMA-Method-(M-SMA)

RNI’s OCD Chart:
RealMoneyIssues has created a chart which tracks severaltrading methods available on TSPTalk, as well as others (as far as I can tell),showing the long and short of the different methods, as well their currentplace on the TSP AutoTracker. As thetitle suggests, this seems to be a very labor intensive endeavor, which he hasbeen generous enough to share with the rest of us, thank you for this RealMoneyIssues. This is definitely a tool I will use to seewhat others are doing, what I will do with the information I’m not sure yet,but it’s something I want to know. Linkto RealMoneyIssues account talk here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?9279-RealMoneyIssues-Account-Talk/page2
RealMoneyIssues has also given me a link to a good referencefor investing terms (which I need more often than I want to admit), the linkis: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp

TSP Millionaires
Found a forum discussing TSP Millionaires, which I find funto read and think about, personally it gives me motivation to do what Ican. Member Boghie provided some numbers(I didn’t try and calculate them so I can’t verify the numbers are correct) ondifferent contribution levels (starting at age 30), and how much you could haveat 65. Look for post #52: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?8487-TSP-Millionaires&highlight=tsp+balances+average

Another interesting article on TSP Millionaires, fromgovexec.com is: http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0710/070210rp.htm

Daze823

Good write-up Daze ........ also the TSP Millionaires article was an excellent read

Sometime in the last couple of days, I read someone's post saying "I don't like being half invested, as I find myself confused if I want the market to go up or down".... I'm up a little over 2% so far YTD, as i've only been 40% invested, 35G, 25F, 15C, 15S, and 10I. this was initially done to pull out some gains from end of year, and minimize risk until I saw what the market was going to do.. Now I find myself not wanting to get out (market still looks good, although maybe a little overbought), but don't want to go in with the rest at the top and lose all the gains and more... Had I gone all in, and be up the 6% that many at the tracker are, it would be a easy decision for me to back out to where I am now, limiting risk and still have a little in there to capture gains... kind of how when I'm winning at the casino, I'll put my money aside and play with their money....

anyway, probably going to stay where I am now, hope for a breather (level would be nice, but would take smal drop) and go in next week if it happens. and my next buy in will be all in, I've always struggled pulling that trigger, but I think it's time to get out of my comfort zone.

my thought of the day: i wonder if kids today would understand the concept of having to turn a dial to channel surf, and have to get off the couch to do it to boot.

Originally Posted by daze823

my thought of the day: i wonder if kids today would understand the concept of having to turn a dial to channel surf, and have to get off the couch to do it to boot.

Easy, no...

So I finally got tired of waiting, and went 50S and 30I 2 days ago, it was a tough call for me, as everyone was saying that the resistance was likely to hold, and the market was going to need a consolidation or small drop to sustain the growth, it doesn't just go straight up, etc... I figured I'd take the risk in case it did break resistance, yesterday was a pretty flat day, and with today's opening the way it was, I decided to preserve what earnings I could and jump into G..... I still am not sure if getting out was what I wanted to do, but I think I was more scared into it, but getting out with that extra 1% was nice... It will be interesting to see what happens this next week, of course I would like to see a consolidation and a solid base for my entry next week, but from what I'm reading now, it seems a constant rise is a real possibility... my next move will be all in (thats me trying to syke myself up)....

WHAT, not thought of the day?

RealMoney, I probably should have put thought of the year, as I try not to think to much.. lol

Don't have much time to spend now looking, but what happened to the market, it was heading up in the morning, then an hour later on it's way back down... not a real question, just saying...

Thought of the day: with 10 years working for the Feds, I am pretty sure I wouldn't still be here if I had to pay 400% more for my retirement plan, and it only paid out a little more than half (of current plan) when I was through.... Realizing that the 2 biggest benefits are the retirement and health benefits, the health benefits alone would not keep me satisfied that it would all pay off in the end.

Things i'm starting to learn, but still don't have a comfortable amount of understanding:
- Shorting - if there are a good number of people shorting the market, and it turns up, the shorts may participate in market gain by then buying to cover their shorts.
- Stop Loss - Stop losses, if the market takes a swing down, it may pick up downward speed at a level that money managers have "picked" as their get out price, due to the increase of availability of stocks for sale, lowering prices.

I understand the basic process, what I don't understand, but plan on reaserching is:
- Is there any data on what these stop-losses are set at (I'm kinda guessing there isn't, would seem like it would be illegal to use that info)
- Do the larger money managers on average insert stop loss at certain levels, at a certain % loss, or maybe at a key level (i.e. 100sma, 50 sma, etc)
- When these stop losses, or covering the shorts kick in, is it usually indicative of the way the market will keep going, or does the market disregard these surges and continue either way as it will.

Thought of the day - When I drive in traffic in Miami, I feel like i'm caught in a slinky, I like to call it slinky traffic... instead of driving at an even slow speed, everyone likes to speed up so no one can get in front of them and then slam on their brakes when they get to close, and repeat... Try driving at a slower steady speed, it's so much more relaxing to not have to constantly start and stop... Even if someone gets in front of you, you will only get where you are going 3 or 4 seconds later, and thats only if they don't switch back over to another lane :-)