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Thread: ILoveTDs Account Talk

  1. #1

    Default ILoveTDs Account Talk

    During my first post on the member introduction thread I stated: “Currently I primarily use a 25/100 moving average approach on the S and I Fund, being in the F Fund when out of the S and I”.

    This generated some comments on what I meant by that comment to which I replied:

    “The 25/100 moving average approach is where you take a fund price over 25 (trading) days and average the price, and then you take the same fund price over 100 (trading) days and average the price. If the 25 day average is less than the 100 day average you get out of the fund, if the 25 day average is higher than the 100 day average you get or stay in the fund. It's a moving average because you drop the oldest fund price each day and add the newest fund price.

    For example, today the 25 day average for the S Fund is $20.2264 and the 100 day average for the S Fund is $20.1421, so the theory is I should be in the S Fund since in the last 25 days it has outperformed the past 100 days (e.g. with smoothing it is going up in price).

    You can use this theory with any moving average, with smaller numbers being more aggressive and telling you to move in and out more often, but the rule of thumb is you keep the smaller average a quarter of the larger average. Such as, 5/20 - 10/40 - 15/60 - 20/80 - 25/100 - 50/200”.

    NASA suggested I repost this on my account talk thread as oppose to the member introduction. As such, I reposted here. Additionally, I get tsp prices from https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/...eHistory.shtml



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  3. #2

    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    saginaw michigan
    Posts
    56

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    Thats not bad. But i use the chicken approach....If i walk in the shed and the chickens are roosting on the top shelf, I'm in, if they are on the bottom shelf, i bail. This seems like it works best, i'm doing very well...

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  5. #3

    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Kentucky
    Posts
    4,706

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    I use the same approach double S. Unfortunetly all my chickens disappeared after the 1st qtr.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  7. #4

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    Have you tried throwing darts? I label each dart with a fund, closest to the bulls eye wins!
    (Note: While I haven't noticed anything to write home about in regard to my TSP, I am a killer playing cricket at the bars )

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  9. #5

    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Kentucky
    Posts
    4,706

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    Its been a tough year, fought my way back admirably but my wife has not given me my pointy objects back yet.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  11. #6

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    Does anyone else on the site, with 2 IFT's this month, plan on buying on a "Dog's of the Dow" dip on 30 December 2011. I back tested this today and noted 6 of the last 7 years did in fact have the dip on the last trading day, with 2008 being the only exception. I would like to know what others think.

    I plan on selling my 100% S Fund on 29 Dec and buying it back 30 Dec if I still have my IFT's.
    100% G Fund COB 13 March 2020

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  13. #7

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    Do IFT's have to be in 2 hours early today since the NYSE is closing at 1400 eastern? Any one know?
    100% G Fund COB 13 March 2020

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  15. #8

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    It should still be noon.

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  17. #9

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    Sold half my position in LOW today.
    100% G Fund COB 13 March 2020


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  19. #10

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    Moved 100% F Fund today
    100% G Fund COB 13 March 2020

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  21. #11

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    Moved 100% S Fund today
    100% G Fund COB 13 March 2020

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  23. #12

    Default Re: ILoveTDs Account Talk

    Might be the stupidest move I've made all year, but I bought AMR at $0.335 today. NYSE announced they will delist AMR today, so I might have a complete loss but I just can't see American Airline becoming nonexistent. All the other airlines have been able to re-org and come out of bankruptcy.
    Thoughts?
    100% G Fund COB 13 March 2020

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