Thread: ILoveTDs Account Talk

Was at a conference this week and heard a speaker give the BirchTree 17,000 speech. A lot of what he said made a lot of sense. Basically, interest rates being low and with QE3 they look to stay low. Additionally, since China, Japan, and Europe are printing money faster then us causing the dollar to increase, precious metal are on the decline. As a result, we are seeing a rush to equities we should expect to continue in the interim future.

We'll see what the summer brings, I'm personally a little more skeptical but thought I would pass on one mans opinion.

My technical thoughts. The S Fund is exactly between the major SMA’s (below 5, 10, 20, 25, 40, and above 50, 80, 100, and 200) which would indicate we are currently in an uptrend. As a result, all the major SMA’s (5, 10, 20, 25, 40, 50, 80, 100, and 200) have continued to drift upward over the last month. Additionally, all the division of four (5/20, 10/40, 20/80, 25/100, 50/200) are positive pointing to overall uptrend’s in the markets.

My gut thoughts. The stock market seems to like QE3 and alot of shepple are starting to feel like the train is leave without them. I see these people putting their money back in the market, and the combination propelling this market further upward. My only concerns are the S Fund and .INX is currently at an all time high which worries me, and I can see U.S Treasuries getting a credit downgrade within the next few months which will result in a few big down day’s.

My seasonality thoughts. The last half of April is usually better then the first part of April. However, sell in May is just around the corner. When January starts positive (such as this year) the year is almost always positive.


Currently I’m thinking the S Fund is overbought because it’s at all time high prices. However, I think we have another week or two of uptrend based on seasonality and the technicals. After that I think we’ll start to see the “sell in May” start to trickle out of the market, but will be negated by the people who feel the train is leaving them. I might sell 2 May and sit out in-case the 3 May reports are ugly, and then reassess from there.

Seasonality points to an up week followed by "Sell in May", I'll likely go F Fund COB Friday.

100% F Fund COB, based on below discussion and 4 up days.

Just a note to myself.

9.10855326399426 YTD
7.60640214560095
23.7030034096122
6.58523810073631
42.5439905738872
26.7259356288099

ILoveTDsTechnical

JP, RMI

You guys selling PEIX ahead of earnings report tonight?

Originally Posted by ILoveTDs

JP, RMI

You guys selling PEIX ahead of earnings report tonight?

Not in it this year... JP is I believe

Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues

Not in it this year... JP is I believe

I don't sell anything at a loss. It has to zero out or I die, whichever comes first.

I'll follow suit

Originally Posted by ILoveTDs

I'll follow suit

I don't have that much invested. I have a loss of $139 so it would not make too much sense to spend $8.95 to get the $80 dollars remaining. Your situation could be different.

Watching PEIX and ANR closely. Waiting for an opportunity to increase my position in order to decrease my losses. Did that with AMD and now I'm almost in the green. Don't know the day nor the hour but that's the plan...