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Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

  1. #4441

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Looking at some charts tonight, and this one really caught my eye:


    DJIA.png

    That is one massive white candle, and I think portends what could be a strong continuation rally to follow. As much as I would have liked to have been on board at yesterday's close, there's no way any system could have predicted the strength of today's move.

    The only thing troubling about this chart is... yes, we could be "overbought". The RSI is now over 82, which is rare, and the PPO is also in rare high territory. So perhaps there may be limited upside potential in the next few days until prices rewind a bit in order to let the oscillators decompress.

    The other chart that I found interesting was AGG, the bond fund:


    agg.png

    I mentioned a few days ago that it looked like bonds might be forming a bottom, (and yields forming a top). It's sure looking like AGG might be getting a much needed reprieve, at long last. Bonds were deeply oversold on the RSI scale. It's good to see prices stabilize and begin to swing back higher.

    The dollar continues to soften, which has helped the PM's and miners. WTIC continues to fall after hitting that upper resistance line. Wow, that's a tough nut to crack for oil prices.

    Composite system is (of course) a solid +3. BPSPX and BPCOMPQ are both heading higher after their slight setback. Other internal indicators are looking positive as well. I'll keep my eye on short term indicators and report here if things change.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  3. #4442

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
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    Phoenix, AZ
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    3,024

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    I was looking at the Dow last night MJR. I noted that historically when the highs for the MACD has gone to 150 and the RSI at 90, they have major pullbacks. So, the rally may still have momentum but are close to their MACD and RSI high water marks.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  5. #4443

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    I was looking at the Dow last night MJR. I noted that historically when the highs for the MACD has gone to 150 and the RSI at 90, they have major pullbacks. So, the rally may still have momentum but are close to their MACD and RSI high water marks.

    FS
    FS, we're on the same page, no doubt.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  7. #4444

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    A quick look at Mr Tran:


    TRAN.png

    The Trump rally has been rather phenomenal for Tran, up 13% since Nov 7. RSI is embedded overbought, and PPO is very high as well. There's been no weakness... yet... in the march higher.

    One other thing to note, the market's PE ratio is now at a rather historic high of 25.84. This could be fine, as long as the "E" for stocks continue to climb along with stock prices. If not, there's gonna be trouble ahead.

    Technically, my VIX system triggered a sell, but just barely, so my composite system is registering a +1, hold long.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  9. #4445

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    OPEC Doomed to Repeat History

    "OPEC has two possible mechanisms for stabilizing the market. It can fix the price at which its members sell their oil, letting supply fluctuate, or it can fix the volume sold, letting the price settle where it will. It cannot set both at the same time.
    OPEC has tried both; neither has worked for any length of time.... When it became apparent that fixing prices didn't work, OPEC opted for the system of output quotas it's trying to revive today. But cheating has been a persistent problem here too..."
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  11. #4446

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    You would have thought that the rate hike was already "baked in", but the market certainly didn't act like it. Almost all the technical damage was done after the Fed announcement. It shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone. Go figure.

    The PMO system that I use registered a technical sell signal today, just barely. With the VIX continuing to climb every day this week, it also remains on a sell. So the composite, technically, is at -1.

    I'm very reluctant to move to cash at this point. I think this could be another whipsaw head-fake, and the market may very well head higher into the end of the year. Seasonality and the possible Santa Claus rally is playing a big factor.

    Perhaps the market just went too far too fast, and just needs a little consolidation, which is certainly plausible. If market conditions deteriorate to the point where my composite registers a -3, I may re-consider.

    The dollar soared, bonds plunged. Oil tanked. PM's and miners took a beating. Mr Tran is showing signs of topping.... Let's see how the next two days play out.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017


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  13. #4447

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    It sure looks like the market has been "consolidating" rather than forming a short term top. The Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Mr Tran all looked strong today. Perhaps some of the big players are "distributing" as we reach 20K on the Dow, and I wouldn't blame them. With the P/E ratio at 26, it's a pricey market. 26 is all fine and good, as long as the "E" on the P/E ratio shows some improvements, and quickly. They say that no one rings a bell at market tops and bottoms, but Dow at 20K could be a short term bell ringer, just from a psychological stand point.

    Never the less, I'm not going to fight the trend. My PMO system is negative (barely), but VIX is positive, as is PPO, so my composite remains at +1. We're now in the thick of the Santa Clause rally, so I certainly want to let dear Rudolph fly the sleigh higher. I'm keeping an eye on market internals, and there's been no major negative divergences. My cycle analysis still is looking like we should continue higher up to roughly Jan 16th, (give or take a day or two), and the S&P around 2300.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  15. #4448

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    It sure looks like the market has been "consolidating" rather than forming a short term top. The Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Mr Tran all looked strong today. Perhaps some of the big players are "distributing" as we reach 20K on the Dow, and I wouldn't blame them. With the P/E ratio at 26, it's a pricey market. 26 is all fine and good, as long as the "E" on the P/E ratio shows some improvements, and quickly. They say that no one rings a bell at market tops and bottoms, but Dow at 20K could be a short term bell ringer, just from a psychological stand point.

    Never the less, I'm not going to fight the trend. My PMO system is negative (barely), but VIX is positive, as is PPO, so my composite remains at +1. We're now in the thick of the Santa Clause rally, so I certainly want to let dear Rudolph fly the sleigh higher. I'm keeping an eye on market internals, and there's been no major negative divergences. My cycle analysis still is looking like we should continue higher up to roughly Jan 16th, (give or take a day or two), and the S&P around 2300.

    Good luck!
    Which PMO system do you use if you don't mind me asking?
    Is today Saturday again?

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  17. #4449

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by jkenjohnson View Post
    Which PMO system do you use if you don't mind me asking?
    I use a combination of % PMO indicators for the S&P 500 with proprietary rules to determine the buy or sell signals.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  19. #4450

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq still look to be consolidating. Mr Tran, however, is looking weak at the moment:


    TRAN.png

    Since Tran is usually a market leader, this could be another sign of market weakness. The things that impress me about this chart (that I don't see on the others) is the obvious negative PPO crossover, prices falling below the 20 DMA, and the Stoch falling through the 50 line, all bearish signs. Perhaps we're just unwinding from that overbought RSI area from last few weeks, which was certainly needed.

    My PPO system just went negative today (just barely), so technically, we're now at -1. I'm actually surprised that my VIX system is so calm, and is the lone indicator still in a "buy" position.

    The S Fund is looking even worse than Mr Tran right now. In any other market environment, I'd be moving to cash (and perhaps I should). But with seasonality so strong at this stage of the year, I just want to hang on a little longer to see if Santa is going to stage a come-back rally.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  21. #4451

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    My PPO system just went negative today (just barely), so technically, we're now at -1. I'm actually surprised that my VIX system is so calm, and is the lone indicator still in a "buy" position.

    The S Fund is looking even worse than Mr Tran right now. In any other market environment, I'd be moving to cash (and perhaps I should). But with seasonality so strong at this stage of the year, I just want to hang on a little longer to see if Santa is going to stage a come-back rally.

    Good luck!
    Been a few days since I've had time to review charts and post. Yesterday my composite system went to a -3 full sell position, as my VIX system finally went negative. Even though my system has proven itself much smarter than me, I'm going to hang in there for another trading day, looking for a short term recovery from today's loss. Hope to hold into early January, but let's see how the next day or two go.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  23. #4452

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Oh, the NEXT DAY card! Good luck, JR. I seem to have an infinite supply of those cards when I start playing them. If I add some discipline, I am sure I might keep a few in the bag and decide on fact rather than my emotion.
    Feb 6: 100S Feb 1: 50G, 50F 28 Dec: 100F 14 Sep: 30G, 30C, 30S, 10I
    Oz never did give nothing to the Tinman, that he didn't...didn't already have.

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