Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

We're now knocking on the door of 2111, the April high. Tomorrow may be the day we push through.


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After a big push higher through the 27th, the market consolidated for a few days to allow the RSI to reset back to normal operating temperature. It now looks like another push higher is in the cards. Forget that the market's P/E ratio is in nosebleed territory. It's time to damn the torpedoes, and steam full ahead!

Composite system is now sitting at +3, a strong buy signal.

Well, now what? We broke through the 2111 April high, but today's roll-over close doesn't inspire much confidence.


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Now that we've passed through a seasonally strong period for stocks, the next few days (7th - 10th) have historically been weak. I'm guessing we'll at least consolidate here and digest these gains before heading higher.

My VIX system triggered a sell signal, and has a tendency to whipsaw, but also is good for giving advance warning on short term market moves. That puts the composite system at (+1+1-1) = +1, a mild buy signal.

This market does not want to consolidate, it just wants to run higher.


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That's all well and good, but eventually too much monkey juice is gonna kill the monkey. RSI is at 66, so there really isn't a whole lot more upside left before the "hot engine" light starts flashing at 70. The next resistance level is obviously the 2135 area, the all time high. My guess is we're going to get there soon, since the market just has too much upside momentum right now.

System remains at +1, a mild buy signal.

Monkey juice? What's that? I was born in the year of the monkey and would like to avoid overindulging.

I enjoy reading your posts even though I have no dinero in my TSP anymore; the info you provide helps with my personal accounts though.

Aloha Mr. JR.

Originally Posted by konakathy

Monkey juice? What's that? I was born in the year of the monkey and would like to avoid overindulging.

I enjoy reading your posts even though I have no dinero in my TSP anymore; the info you provide helps with my personal accounts though.

Aloha Mr. JR.

Aloha to you, KK. Monkey juice is most likely M1 money supply and other nefarious money pumping going on between the Yellen and Co. and the big banksters, so I think you're safe.

Feel free to indulge, you've earned it. Thanks for stopping by!

Almost decided to jump out of stocks today. Almost. Instead, I decided to stick with my system. Maybe if we all concentrate reeeeaaallly hard, we can bust through 2135, and keep climbing to the moon with pockets full of money.


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Today was a necessary pullback or at least a consolidation day. That uptrend line is pretty steep, but hey, this market wants to go higher, so stand back and let it rip. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio is being shot out of a cannon as far into the clouds as it can possibly go. Bubble? Nah. Overbought? No way. Time for a pullback or (gasp), a correction? You'd be the laughing stock of the party if you weren't clinking your glasses together as the market continues to go higher.

Personally, I think this latest rally from the May 19th low is a bubble on top of a bubble, but what do I know. If we take out the all time highs at 2135, (only 20 points away), what does that tell us? That all is fine in this massive debt induced parabolic bubble economy? Of course! Nothing to worry about, right?

System remains at a +1 level, so I remain in stocks, with one foot straddling the doorway, ready to leave this party if things start to turn ugly.

Ruh-roh. My systems won't have a final reading until the end of the day, of course, but I'm anticipating negative crossovers. The F Fund is on a tear, but the RSI is in dangerous territory (72), so I'm playing it safe by going to the G Fund.

Houston; we have a problem

Well, yesterday I said: "System remains at a +1 level, so I remain in stocks, with one foot straddling the doorway, ready to leave this party if things start to turn ugly." Sure enough, the bears came crashing in, and I hit the escape button.


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For the week, we started out strong, but ended up with a slight loss (-0.15%).


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That puts the latest weekly candle back underneath the massive dome, right where it belongs. If the market continues along the path of this dome, expect lower highs and lower lows over the next few weeks.

Composite system now reads (+1-1-1) = -1, a mild sell signal, and the only system with a +1 is just a fraction away from joining the others on their sell signal.

Bad day for the markets, especially that close very near the LOD.


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The good news is that the "cold engine" light came on (RSI below 30), so it's one reason I might expect a rebound in the markets tomorrow.

The daily chart is looking like the trouble is just beginning.


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After failing to hold the short term 2085 level, it sure looks like the next test of support might be the May low around 2025. If that test fails, then Katy bar the door. The other short term positive sign for the markets was the huge gap higher on the VIX. Unless we're going into crash mode (which I doubt), I'm guessing that's a sign of short term fear exhaustion, and the VIX should ease lower tomorrow, which should help the markets stabilize in the short term.

Oil is finally starting to crack through the ice, and looks to be heading lower. That's caused the high yield bond market to start tanking, which it needed to do anyway, as it was way overbought with an RSI well over 70 last week. The Nasdaq is looking especially weak, which is not a good sign, and Mr. Tran is also starting his move lower. Watch the 7470 level on the TRAN. If it breaks below that level, it could spell trouble.

Composite system is a full negative 3, a strong sell signal.

Mr Market got a little too oversold today, so it turned around and staged a bit of a comeback, only down 18 ticks.


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Note the RSI got well below 30, so the warning light got short term traders attention, and the rally began. My guess is we get a short term bounce, possibly testing the 2085 level (first black arrow), and then we resume the downtrend harder, possibly testing the next area of support around 2025 (2nd black arrow). Lets see how it plays out over the course of the next few days.

EFA is getting creamed, so I Fund holders are hurting big time. AGG is looking toppy, and the RSI is still over 70, but rolling over. Maybe the best long term hold this year is the F Fund, for those of you who like to set it and forget it. Worldwide bond yields are going lower everywhere, and it's causing a flight to yield.

Mr TRAN took a big hit, down 145 bp, and USO continues to slowly sink.

As expected, Mr VIX closed lower, and printed a shooting star red candle lower. Interesting to note that only twice in the last year has the RSI for Mr VIX been over 70, and this is one of those times. I'm expecting a lower VIX for a few days before more fireworks go off.

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Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell. However, I wouldn't be surprised if my VIX system (ultra short term) changes course and closes with a bullish crossover tomorrow or the next day.