Here are the year end results for my Timing System vs. the S&P 500 for the past 5 years:
Date S&P TIMING 2007 3.5% 11.7% 2008 -38.5% -3.9% 2009 23.5% 32.5% 2010 12.8% 21.8% 2011 0.0% 3.8% TOTAL GAIN -11.3% 79.7% CAGR -2.4% 12.4%
There's good news and bad news with these results... First the bad news:
Very unusual and choppy market action caused my system to lose 2.2% since 11/18, while the market gained 3.5%. (My system zigged while the market zagged and vice versa). Unfortunately, this occurred right after I started my autotracker on Oct 17, which now shows a loss of -3.29%.
We all know there is no perfect mechanical timing system, and any trend following model is going to have periods of underperformance. Although it's very frustrating to lag the market during this time, I know that my system will keep me in the market during major upswings, and get me out during market crashes, which is very comforting.
Now the good news: This makes five consecutive years of my timing system outperforming the stock market. Compounded annual growth rate of my timing system is +12.4% compared to -2.4% for the S&P 500.
Here's to a healthy, happy, and prosperous 2012!
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