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Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

  1. #121

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
    Posts
    61,421

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    I'll drink to that one!
    beerdrinker.gif
    05/26/2020
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$34.35 a Barrel, Daily Status +$1.18

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  3. #122

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Here are the year end results for my Timing System vs. the S&P 500 for the past 5 years:

    Date S&P TIMING
    2007 3.5% 11.7%
    2008 -38.5% -3.9%
    2009 23.5% 32.5%
    2010 12.8% 21.8%
    2011 0.0% 3.8%
    TOTAL GAIN -11.3% 79.7%
    CAGR -2.4% 12.4%

    There's good news and bad news with these results... First the bad news:

    Very unusual and choppy market action caused my system to lose 2.2% since 11/18, while the market gained 3.5%. (My system zigged while the market zagged and vice versa). Unfortunately, this occurred right after I started my autotracker on Oct 17, which now shows a loss of -3.29%.

    We all know there is no perfect mechanical timing system, and any trend following model is going to have periods of underperformance. Although it's very frustrating to lag the market during this time, I know that my system will keep me in the market during major upswings, and get me out during market crashes, which is very comforting.

    Now the good news: This makes five consecutive years of my timing system outperforming the stock market. Compounded annual growth rate of my timing system is +12.4% compared to -2.4% for the S&P 500.

    Here's to a healthy, happy, and prosperous 2012!

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  5. #123

    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Illinois :(
    Posts
    467

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Congrats man, that's alot better than a bunch of us here! I am adopting a new strategy as well this year and will be checking your thread as well as some others here to compare timing. I'm also going to track the top five finishers from 2011 and use the winning allocation to help in my decision.

    Thanks for an informative thread.

    Best

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  7. #124

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Thanks James. There are a lot of good TSP Timers on this thread with incredible returns last year. Don't know if they have been able to perform that well year after year, or if it's just a matter of making some prescient calls in 2011.

    Best of luck to you!

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  9. #125

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    RealMoneyIssues has put together a nice spreadsheet with several market timers signals, including mine. I encourage everyone to check out his thread HERE.

    Thanks RMI! Great idea!

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  11. #126

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Just to let everyone know, I am currently working on some additional refinements to my Timing System to further enhance it's performance. I'll keep you informed when I have more information to share.

    To your success,

    John


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  13. #127

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Moved to 100% S Fund today.

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  15. #128

    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Smithfield, VA
    Posts
    930

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    Moved to 100% S Fund today.
    I'm moving with you...hopefully I'm not bad luck.

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  17. #129

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MaStA View Post
    I'm moving with you...hopefully I'm not bad luck.
    That makes three of us. Time to make some money.

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  19. #130

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Here's why I believe it pays to stay OUT of the I Fund.

    Below is a 1 year chart comparing the (approx) equivalent of the S Fund ($EMW) to the (approx) equivalent of the I Fund (EFA).

    When the S Fund is outperforming the I Fund, the line will be heading higher. Conversely, if the I Fund were to outperform the S Fund, the line would be heading lower.

    As you can see from the graph, most of the the last year was spent see-sawing higher and lower, with no clear advantage to either fund.

    However, it is very clear to me that since October of last year, the S Fund has continually outperformed the I Fund, and is continuing to do so. Price action has stayed above the 50 day EMA since that time. I believe that the European debt crisis may be a big part of this outperformance. Also, China's market has been a disaster, which does not bode well for the Asian markets.

    It might be a good idea to stay away from the I Fund until this picture improves.

    Hope this helps,

    John

    SvsI.png

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  21. #131

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Just checked. There are 27 people on the Autotracker who are 100% I Fund. I hope they read my post.

    Good luck!

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  23. #132

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MaStA View Post
    I'm moving with you...hopefully I'm not bad luck.
    Don't ever think, or say, that you are bad luck. You are not.

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