I'll drink to that one!
Attachment 16852
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I'll drink to that one!
Attachment 16852
Here are the year end results for my Timing System vs. the S&P 500 for the past 5 years:
Date S&P TIMING 2007 3.5% 11.7% 2008 -38.5% -3.9% 2009 23.5% 32.5% 2010 12.8% 21.8% 2011 0.0% 3.8% TOTAL GAIN -11.3% 79.7% CAGR -2.4% 12.4%
There's good news and bad news with these results... First the bad news:
Very unusual and choppy market action caused my system to lose 2.2% since 11/18, while the market gained 3.5%. (My system zigged while the market zagged and vice versa). Unfortunately, this occurred right after I started my autotracker on Oct 17, which now shows a loss of -3.29%.
We all know there is no perfect mechanical timing system, and any trend following model is going to have periods of underperformance. Although it's very frustrating to lag the market during this time, I know that my system will keep me in the market during major upswings, and get me out during market crashes, which is very comforting.
Now the good news: This makes five consecutive years of my timing system outperforming the stock market. Compounded annual growth rate of my timing system is +12.4% compared to -2.4% for the S&P 500.
Here's to a healthy, happy, and prosperous 2012!
Congrats man, that's alot better than a bunch of us here! I am adopting a new strategy as well this year and will be checking your thread as well as some others here to compare timing. I'm also going to track the top five finishers from 2011 and use the winning allocation to help in my decision.
Thanks for an informative thread.
Best
Thanks James. There are a lot of good TSP Timers on this thread with incredible returns last year. Don't know if they have been able to perform that well year after year, or if it's just a matter of making some prescient calls in 2011.
Best of luck to you!
RealMoneyIssues has put together a nice spreadsheet with several market timers signals, including mine. I encourage everyone to check out his thread HERE.
Thanks RMI! Great idea! :)
Just to let everyone know, I am currently working on some additional refinements to my Timing System to further enhance it's performance. I'll keep you informed when I have more information to share.
To your success,
John
Moved to 100% S Fund today.
Here's why I believe it pays to stay OUT of the I Fund.
Below is a 1 year chart comparing the (approx) equivalent of the S Fund ($EMW) to the (approx) equivalent of the I Fund (EFA).
When the S Fund is outperforming the I Fund, the line will be heading higher. Conversely, if the I Fund were to outperform the S Fund, the line would be heading lower.
As you can see from the graph, most of the the last year was spent see-sawing higher and lower, with no clear advantage to either fund.
However, it is very clear to me that since October of last year, the S Fund has continually outperformed the I Fund, and is continuing to do so. Price action has stayed above the 50 day EMA since that time. I believe that the European debt crisis may be a big part of this outperformance. Also, China's market has been a disaster, which does not bode well for the Asian markets.
It might be a good idea to stay away from the I Fund until this picture improves.
Hope this helps,
John
Attachment 17030
Just checked. There are 27 people on the Autotracker who are 100% I Fund. I hope they read my post.
Good luck!