Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

All my accounts continue to ride the open range - no fear of taphophobia here. I've lived under ground in my past. There is a long year ahead for great gains.

Originally Posted by MaStA

John,

I know you were talking about opening long positions in stocks such as MCD, INTC, etc. and I know you stated you bought some LOW. Through these rough times do you let these nice dividend stocks continue to ride in your roth or do you actively trade out of them? I bought some MCD and INTC the other day and so far I'm positive on the INTC and down slightly on MCD, but nothing that I'm worried about. Plus MCD is about to pay a .70 dividend on June 15th. I figure for the long haul in the roth I may as well let these ride the waves since I won't need this money anytime soon and these type of stocks are stable for the most part.

Thanks for your input in advance!

I think for the most part, your dividend stocks should not be traded. McDonalds and Intel are not going to go out of business anytime soon, if ever. Just let the dividends compound and grow, and keep pumping more money into your Roth to buy more shares when prices get to ridiculously low levels, like they did back in March 2009. I think that's a good way to build a solid, conservative account. You can use a portion at some point for more aggressive trading when you're ready.

Good luck!

Originally Posted by Birchtree

All my accounts continue to ride the open range - no fear of taphophobia here. I've lived under ground in my past. There is a long year ahead for great gains.

Birch, quit being so dang stubborn. :toung: There really is something to be said for market timing. You and I both know it.

Even if you only use it for your piddly little TSP, it might make you an extra 12% a year. Do the math - it adds up to a lot of money.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

I think for the most part, your dividend stocks should not be traded. McDonalds and Intel are not going to go out of business anytime soon, if ever. Just let the dividends compound and grow, and keep pumping more money into your Roth to buy more shares when prices get to ridiculously low levels, like they did back in March 2009. I think that's a good way to build a solid, conservative account. You can use a portion at some point for more aggressive trading when you're ready.

Good luck!

Thanks for your input! I am waiting on my $5,000 for the year to be transferred in. I am monitoring some of these good dividend stocks and making entries at points I feel are good. It seems that the dividend will pay for any gradual loss you may take here and there and make you more money in the long run so I'm not worried about it. Like you said Intel and McDonald's isn't going anywhere lol. It looks like KO and MSFT recently had a small pullback so it may be a good time to buy into those as well. JNJ is oversold according to OptionsHouse's research tab. That chart is crazy looking for the past year, but it does look like it may be a good time to buy as well since it seems to be nearing the bottom of a pullback.

So many stocks...so many I want to buy lol. I'm excited to add $5,000 for the years to come and continue investing in a lot of these good dividend paying companies.

Also ZNGA is said to be in a good buying position...I just don't know if I should chance buying some shares in it. Could be a big reward if the stock got back up over $10 eventually.

I wish I knew more about what all of the financials meant. I've heard you want to look for companies that don't have a ton of debt, etc. but I don't know what all of the technical jargon means.

Went to cash on May 8th, with the S&P at 1363.72.

Here we are at the end of May, and the S&P is at 1310.33.

That's an extra 3.9% in my account that would have gone up in smoke in a little over 3 weeks had I stayed in.

Also, we're now down about 7.9% from our high on April 2nd. Most people consider a 10% drop a "correction", so we may need to go down a few more points to get there.

This could be the summer of discontent for many investors.

Good luck everyone!

My TSP account went up in smoke a while ago...I don't think there is much left to burn. I really hate this and why the hell did I keep my TSP invested...lately I've been so consumed with investments outside of TSP I haven't even been paying much attention to my TSP account lol.

Originally Posted by MaStA

My TSP account went up in smoke a while ago...I don't think there is much left to burn. I really hate this and why the hell did I keep my TSP invested...lately I've been so consumed with investments outside of TSP I haven't even been paying much attention to my TSP account lol.

Jared, you HAVE TO BE in charge of your own TSP! Make a mental commitment todaythat you'll treasure every dollar in your account. You've worked hard for that money, and you don't want to see it go up in smoke! Agreed?

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Jared, you HAVE TO BE in charge of your own TSP! Make a mental commitment todaythat you'll treasure every dollar in your account. You've worked hard for that money, and you don't want to see it go up in smoke! Agreed?

I'm in charge of it, but I suck at making the right moves. A lot of people I talk to in the military just say to leave it alone and not mess with it. Can you make more money when not doing buy and hold? Of course, but only if you make the correct moves. I suck at this stuff lol...

and I don't believe any system/technical analysis can predict job numbers, etc. so stuff like that you have to just go with what you think will happen and either get out or stay in I guess. There is too much that affects the market to keep an eye on...

I've had a TSP account for 25 years. Until very recently, I had everything in the C fund and never checked my balance. I figured I had a long wait for retirement, so I was comfortable with the risk and the associated ups and downs. I think that served me well for a long time.

Beginning this year, however, I've been actively managing my account. One reason is while retirement is a ways off (I'm 52), it is growing larger on the horizon. Another reason I began to manage my account it that it seems like the markets are different than they were in years past. Buy-and-hold was a reasonable strategy, but I'm not sure that's the case today.

Since studying here since January, I've learned that, for me, there is a comfortable middle ground between buy-and hold and playing short-term market movements. With the limitations with our IFTs and what I'm personally comfortable with (personality-wise and knowledge-wise), I've learned that I'm better off playing mid to long-term trends and not try to time short-term bounces. I tried to make a quick play a couple of times, but always felt like I was flipping a coin. That's not something I'm comfortable with unless I have reason to believe that the odds are in my favor. For me it always felt like a 50:50 proposition. I've done best when I've positioned myself in terms of the current trend. I won't make the highest gains ... but I will avoid the large losses.

I've been playing a game of sorts ... pitting my managed account against my wife's which is in a bank managed account. YTD, I'm a runaway winner. I'm no expert, but I've learned enough to stand out of the way when the train is running downhill. Her bank-employed investment manager tells her to stay the course otherwise she'll miss the big positive jumps. My January gains are not reflected in the Tracker, but I'm up over 8% for the year. I can live with that.

I can sympathize with your feelings of frustration. I felt that way initially. My newbie advice is to not try to do too much and to stay with what you're comfortable with. Keep it simple and, as you learn more, venture out if you so desire.

My, admittedly, non-expert advice.

Hang in there!

Originally Posted by MaStA

I'm in charge of it, but I suck at making the right moves. A lot of people I talk to in the military just say to leave it alone and not mess with it. Can you make more money when not doing buy and hold? Of course, but only if you make the correct moves. I suck at this stuff lol...

and I don't believe any system/technical analysis can predict job numbers, etc. so stuff like that you have to just go with what you think will happen and either get out or stay in I guess. There is too much that affects the market to keep an eye on...

MaStA,

We have to keep everything in perspective. We are over 80% corrected from the absolute bottom of the S&P500 (March 9, 2009). Watching your holdings dump 2% in a day is difficult, but we watched the same show last year. And, in fact summers often are periods of instability and loss.

A few things.

• We've only lost 3% this week if fully invested in the 'C Fund'
• One or two days of a rebounding market will zero out those losses.
• Year to date, the S&P500 is still up nicely for this time of year - about 3.5%
• Short summer slumbers are great for dollar cost averaging - contribution bump?
• And finally, you are in the most risky (greatest variance up and down) of our funds **

Without being presumptuous, may I recommend and excellent book - namely 'The Lies About Money' by Ric Edelman. Great discussion on risk, asset allocation, and different types of investments. Also, after reading it, you can run through a quiz and get a very good asset allocation.

I bring this up because you are trying to market time. Many thing that market timing is impossible - but, you can see that some succeed. However, most do not. And, those that do seem to have a very strong grasp of technical trading. Maybe you could join me in having an acceptable allocation with a few jigger points. Never all in, never all out. I use three Edelman asset allocations and jigger with about 20% of it on the edges.


** Note: In any year one should expect the 'S Fund' to return anything from -12% through +28%. The 'C Fund' between -9% through +23%.