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  • JTH's Avatar
    03-26-2024, 07:38 AM
    It also makes it interesting to have a holiday weekend followed with a new Month. Then add to this the whole Easter based on the first full moon...
    5885 replies | 1219593 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-26-2024, 07:06 AM
    Good morning Monday marked 97 closes above the 50-Day-SMA, ranking as the 6th best since 2003. From 63 years, Jan/Feb/Mar closed positive 18...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-25-2024, 07:37 AM
    Good morning There's nothing significant to report, SPY pre-markets have been down. The last two Tuesdays up, last three Friday's down.
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-24-2024, 12:12 PM
    Yea, I feel ya, given the current conditions I would have thought it'd be the S-Fund at the top of the tracker. Just gotta wait for that rotation,...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-24-2024, 06:01 AM
    Good Morning Currently 1.86% YTD, with 87% of the time spent in the G/F Funds (low risk, low reward). It was a green week, with all the...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-24-2024, 02:35 AM
    JTH replied to a thread Guess Who This Is... in Entertainment
    Gwen & Blake, Americana style royalty :D
    1862 replies | 160658 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-21-2024, 01:12 PM
    Greetings I started TSP around 2001 when it first became available to the military. At the time, we had unlimited IFT's and there wasn't much...
    9 replies | 597 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-21-2024, 07:28 AM
    Good morning From the previous 21-years of March, of the 14 times Trading day 14 closed positive, the month closed positive 12 times, giving us...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-21-2024, 04:15 AM
    It sounds like you've worked it out rather well, I have some time to think about it. I still need to do 2023's taxes, the crypto trading is hot a...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-20-2024, 01:55 PM
    Thanks for the feedback. I'm somewhat in the same boat, I already have a ROTH, but with the Traditional IRA I'm trying my best to reduce the...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-20-2024, 08:09 AM
    Good morning Last year I transferred the TSP to an IRA, this year I'm planning to rollover the IRA to a Roth. Only problem is the tax hit....
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-20-2024, 02:21 AM
    Yea, I have no idea why folks would want to buy prior to the meeting. Since everyone has an expectation for the FOMC, I'll speculate the algorithms...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-19-2024, 08:22 AM
    Good morning (FOMC fun) Economics are not really in my wheelhouse, but given the circumstances, I thought I’d dig into the last 11 FOMC meetings....
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-18-2024, 07:43 AM
    Good morning We’ve closed 91 sessions over the 50-SMA, today will be a tie-breaker for 8th place across the previous 21-years. On the last 11...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-17-2024, 06:21 AM
    Good Morning Currently 1.86% YTD, 100G, with 1 IFT. I’m looking for a 1st quarter 3% gain, (achievable) we just need a good run into the end of...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-16-2024, 07:56 AM
    Gotta love it S&P 500, 3rd Friday's 15th day of March had the highest volume since the 3rd Friday's 15th day of the December. Looks like 15 of...
    5885 replies | 1219593 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-15-2024, 11:55 AM
    Opps (typo) the chart title above should read "S&P 500, 2003-2024, Worst 500 Days" Anyhow, if today closes down, it will be our first...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-15-2024, 07:50 AM
    Good morning (the sky is falling) As a habit, I tend to avoid buying anything on a Friday. Reason being, bad news gets slipped in on Friday...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-14-2024, 03:07 PM
    Yea, an interesting day, darn near everything was green on the pre-markets, it looked like it could be a +1% day, but then the inflation news dropped...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-14-2024, 08:30 AM
    SPY Pre-Markets looked good this morning but there was some selling in the last hour of trading.
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-12-2024, 08:35 AM
    Good morning (for fun) From 8-March, going back 100 pre-market sessions on the SPY ETF, all 11 of the 30-minute pre-market sessions closed above...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-11-2024, 08:12 AM
    Good morning Although we did breach the previous week's low, buyers stepped in quickly at 5057, so now we have 2 weekly lows in the 5057 area,...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-10-2024, 07:24 AM
    Good Morning For myself, I’m back to 100G, the 8-Day 70% S-Fund allocation yielded an additional .83% For the past 27 sessions, the...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-08-2024, 12:36 PM
    It was a curious observation, this morning the pre-markets were down slightly much of the session, then flipped over to green before the open. Since...
    5885 replies | 1219593 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-08-2024, 11:00 AM
    IFT EoB today from 30G/70S to 100G (1st IFT this month) Have a great weekend!
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-08-2024, 09:31 AM
    Good morning (post 2 of 2) Our 5th trading day closed up 1.20% MTD. Historically a positive March trading day-5 closed the month up 6 times...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
  • JTH's Avatar
    03-08-2024, 05:36 AM
    Good morning (post 1 of 2) This week both the S&P 500 and the Small Cap’s Top-10 & Top-50 lose some strength, while the Sectors add a tad. ...
    9561 replies | 1212191 view(s)
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5 Visitor Messages

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    Thanks for sharing all this data. I’m glad 😀 thanks for your input and PLEASE keep us posted when you do.
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    Thanks for sharing all this data. I’m glad 😀 thanks for your input and PLEASE keep us posted when you do.
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    Also will consider s when it hits below 890 (symbol:
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    Tsp millionaire will stay in g until @ 1875-1900

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    For the latest MARCON report updated weekly.

    Market Conditions Advisory System:
    A market price advisory system based on the 26-week high/low over multiple indexes. Using the RIMTV (Reference, Interpretation, Momentum, Trend, and Volume) method to grade prices. Updated Monthly.

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    A trading journal outlining my thoughts on the markets as they exist in the present. Also, the latest statistical data concerning my IFTs. Updated after each IFT & Monthly.

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Recent Entries

Stats for March

by JTH on 02-29-2024 at 03:45 PM
Greetings (Last Chart Revised)

Here's a yearly projection, followed by a March Projection, capped off with a 9-day word of caution.

February 2024 was a phenomenal month, across the previous 63 years from 1961:

This Feb ranked as the 7th best of 64 Februaries with a 5.17% monthly gain.
Jan & Feb together rank as the 13th best of 64 with a 6.84% YTD gain.


While not a quarterly stat, at 11.57% this Dec/Jan/Feb together rank as the 9th best

Read More

Updated 03-03-2024 at 05:33 AM by JTH

Categories
Stats

Stats for February

by JTH on 02-01-2024 at 05:13 AM
Greetings

Generally speaking it was an average middle of the road January. Ranking 33rd of 63, this January closed up 1.59%, our MTD intra-high ranked 26th at 3.92% and our MTD intra-low ranked 23rd best at -1.33%.

namor's Vegas Boxer Account Talk-202402-1-png

While we did close Jan above the average of closes, thus far this quarter we are under-performing this same metric on the weekly chart for the 1st quarter averages. Further reading can be found in the Stats for Q1 Blog.

Read More

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Stats

TSP Fund Correlation

by JTH on 01-09-2024 at 06:47 AM
Greetings

TLDR: When The C-Fund closes up, the FSI Funds are more likely to close up. When The C-Fund closes down, the FSI Funds are less likely to close down.

Since I consider our C-Fund to be the standard by which all other funds should be measured, I thought it would be a good time to measure the correlation of the funds. Simply put, how often do the FSI funds trade in the same direction or against the C-Fund. For this study I've chosen to use 11, 27, 55, & 101 sessions,

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Updated 01-09-2024 at 07:05 AM by JTH

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Stats for January

by JTH on 01-01-2024 at 04:31 AM
Happy New Year

This is the 3rd & final of a three-part series starting off 2024 with blogs covering the Yearly, Quarterly, and Monthly timeframe.

Ranking 11th of 63, December of 2023 closed up 4.42% making it a Top 17% close across the past 63 months of December. Our MTD intra-high was 5.13% ranking 11th, and our MTD intra-low was -.28% ranking 9th best.
day trading vs hold steady-20230101-1-png

___
We are now using a new 63-year timeframe from 1961-2023. Comparing

Read More

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Stats for Q1

by JTH on 12-31-2023 at 04:50 AM
Greetings

This is the 2nd of a three-part series starting off 2024 with blogs covering the Yearly, Quarterly, and Monthly timeframe.


Ranking 8th of 63, Q4 of 2023 closed up 11.24% making it a Top 13% close across the past 63 years of 4th Quarters. Our QTD High (not much higher) was 11.78% ranking 13th, and our QTD low was -4.30% ranking 39th best.
Market Talk-20230101-1-png

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With a new year we roll the statistics forward, and are now using

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Updated 12-31-2023 at 07:53 AM by JTH

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes