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Thread: Help II

  1. Default Help II

    I don't want to steal his post, but am a similar situation. Moved it all to G, got swamped at work with the Covid, and missed the recovery. More of a set it and forget it, maybe 2-3 changes per year, have 5-7 years left. I've been waiting for a drop in the share price of C and S, before reinvesting. Just bite the bullet and do it now, or I'm thinking maybe wait until Fridays employee report Tom was talking about? I would think things may drop when that comes out?
    Last edited by wolfman13; 06-01-2020 at 10:36 AM. Reason: notifications


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  3. #2

    Default Re: Help II

    Welcome wolfman! It depends on a lot of thing such as if you're 25, 45, or 65 years old. If you're not one to watch the market and you have many years left to work, making the move now or 5% lower from here may not make a big difference by the time you need your money.

    Otherwise, patience may (or may not) pay off. There's a lot that is going to happen between now and the election and the markets could get volatile again setting up possible opportunities to buy lower.

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  5. #3

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Help II

    Always seems to be the same question. Should I go or should I stay.
    Sometimes it helps to be signed into one or more premium sites (where you will get more info, but still be faced with the same question).

    Don’t forget, you also don’t have to move 100%. Can also move a little, see what it does, and go from there. Or, choose a mix that you are comfortable with, and set it and forget it.

    Good luck in your investing!
    There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who know binary, and those that don't!!
    Retired on December 31, 2018!!

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  7. Default Re: Help II

    You missed one, I'm 55. Retirement in 2 years isn't happening anymore. Like I said 5-7, hopefully not 10 years from now. I understand what you mean about the future, but I took a big loss, and am anxious to get back in to it. I'll have to work on my patience, and do more research. The 5% point makes sense also. As far as buying/selling between funds, are there limits in TSP on how many times you can do that? Or am I thinking about something else in TSP?

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  9. #5

    Join Date
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    Lightbulb Re: Help II

    Gotta be in to win...

    With 5 - 7 years till retirement I personally would not be an 'All In/All Out' swing trader. You should be safer than that. You should also never (well, rarely) be all out of C/S/I at any point in your investment career. You are seeing the negative of that right now.

    Perhaps find three allocations that work for you through honest reflection.
    • Conservative - What were you willing to lose during The Black Death of 2020. If 7%, find a viable allocation that lost 7% peak to trough and that is your conservative allocation.
    • Normal - What were you willing to lose during The Black Death of 2020. If 10%, find a viable allocation that lost 10% peak to trough and that is your normal allocation.
    • Aggressive - What were you willing to lose during The Black Death of 2020. If 20%, find a viable allocation that lost 20% peak to trough and that is your aggressive allocation.


    I found my personal balance using 2001/2 data, updated my thoughts using 2008/9 data, and found it held up with The Black Death Which Will Last Forever while Shoe Gluing Must Move to Madagascar or something.

    My allocations are:
    • Aggressive: 4% G, 21% F, 32% C, 29% S, 14% I - Expected Return: 9%, Expected Variance: 10%
    • Normal: 4% G, 36% F, 27% C, 23% S, 10% I - Expected Return: 8%, Expected Variance: 8%
    • Conservative: 4% G, 46% F, 26% C, 16% S, 8% I - Expected Return: 7%, Expected Variance: 7%


    I mess with the G/F holdings all the time. Our G is better than those available to anyone else - even though it is still lousy. I have 10 years till retirement or so. I probably have a much larger tolerance to risk than you as well. My allocations are probably too risky for you. Just guessing.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  11. #6

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    Default Re: Help II

    Not sure if this helps, but I have often posted my ideas on fund choices near, and during, retirement.
    Here’s the thing. You can expect to live 20-30 yrs in retirement. Add that to your 5-7 years before retirement, and you quickly find that you are actually a long term investor.

    G just won’t cut it, for long term. I like Boghie’s %’s, but I would delete any G Fund. I am following my own advice, and have been retired going on 2 years now.
    There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who know binary, and those that don't!!
    Retired on December 31, 2018!!

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  13. #7

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Help II

    Substitute "this type of market" with "the market".

    There are three options for deploying large cash allocations in this type of market:

    1. Invest a lump sum and take what the market gives you.
    2. Wait for the market to fall further and invest at a better entry point.
    3. Dollar cost average into the market to spread your risks.

    The second choice always sounds the most appealing to investors, but as the old saying goes, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Holding too much cash can become an addiction for investors who don’t have a plan for deploying capital because bear markets don’t operate on a set schedule. Although the lump-sum option has the highest probability of success, the third option offers the biggest payoff from both a psychological and a market perspective in the current environment.
    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/201...ging-decision/

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