Re: Help II
Gotta be in to win...
With 5 - 7 years till retirement I personally would not be an 'All In/All Out' swing trader. You should be safer than that. You should also never (well, rarely) be all out of C/S/I at any point in your investment career. You are seeing the negative of that right now.
Perhaps find three allocations that work for you through honest reflection.
- Conservative - What were you willing to lose during The Black Death of 2020. If 7%, find a viable allocation that lost 7% peak to trough and that is your conservative allocation.
- Normal - What were you willing to lose during The Black Death of 2020. If 10%, find a viable allocation that lost 10% peak to trough and that is your normal allocation.
- Aggressive - What were you willing to lose during The Black Death of 2020. If 20%, find a viable allocation that lost 20% peak to trough and that is your aggressive allocation.
I found my personal balance using 2001/2 data, updated my thoughts using 2008/9 data, and found it held up with The Black Death Which Will Last Forever while Shoe Gluing Must Move to Madagascar or something.
My allocations are:
- Aggressive: 4% G, 21% F, 32% C, 29% S, 14% I - Expected Return: 9%, Expected Variance: 10%
- Normal: 4% G, 36% F, 27% C, 23% S, 10% I - Expected Return: 8%, Expected Variance: 8%
- Conservative: 4% G, 46% F, 26% C, 16% S, 8% I - Expected Return: 7%, Expected Variance: 7%
I mess with the G/F holdings all the time. Our G is better than those available to anyone else - even though it is still lousy. I have 10 years till retirement or so. I probably have a much larger tolerance to risk than you as well. My allocations are probably too risky for you. Just guessing.
Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!
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