Thread: Newbie with risk aversion

Originally Posted by 29year

I’m currently invested 78% in the G fund ( the most conservative) and 22% in the F fund. I will be contributing for 2 more years. I don’t expect to have to draw on this for 7 more years. I would like to know what your opinion is on how I should have my funds invested. I want to play it as safe as possible, but get a better rate of return than I’m getting now(2.78 last year :{). I can tolerate more risk than I am currently since I will have CERS and SS to fall back on. I just can't make up my mind. I realize that your advice is an opinion only and is not binding in any way. I realize that past performance does not guarantee future performance.
Thanks in advance.

Can you clarify that you are CSRS or FERS?

Sounds like you are CSRS. In which case you are not as dependant on your TSP to pay the bills when you're retired.
With your time horizon and risk aversion, I would put it all in L-2020 or L-2030 and let the autopilot slowly move more of your TSP to the G fund.

Originally Posted by Skorcher

Sounds like you are CSRS. In which case you are not as dependant on your TSP to pay the bills when you're retired.
With your time horizon and risk aversion, I would put it all in L-2020 or L-2030 and let the autopilot slowly move more of your TSP to the G fund.

The L-funds are all screwed up due to the bear market in the I-fund, which the L-funds include. It's like poking a hole in a raft, just a smaller hole. I admit to doing some bottom-fishing in the I-fund and it has come up dry. Divergence between the C and I is something like 20% for the last 6 months. Ergo, do NOT do L-funds. None. Zero. Don't do it. How else can I say it? OK - here's how: "mistake".

if you want a bit more risk; put 1/4 in the S or C funds; keep the rest in G/F. F has some risk later next year due to interest rate changes, if that occurs., but it did well this year. Who wudda thunk?

Actually I am FERS. I plan on retiring from my federal job in January 2017. I've chosen that month because I will be eligible for the social security bridge payments from my CERS account at that time. I will continue to work part time for five more years (I will be 65). I will then draw on my thrift savings plan. I plan on waiting until I am close to 70 years old before I start drawing on Social Security. I may switch those two around, depending on how well the thrift savings plan does and how much I wish to leave to my heirs. Outside of my retirement plans I am financially secure. All of this to say perhaps I have too much aversion to risk. But after watching the documentary" inside job", I became very wary of the stock market. Thanks for the replies so far and any future guidance you can provide.

This is the plan that I worked out after studying a 10 year history of all of the funds. The bulk of my money is invested in the G fund. I plan on moving 60% of that money into the C fund. If the C fund takes a 37% drop like it did in 2008, it won't kill me. I'm currently paying 50% of my contributions into the G fund and 50% into the F fund. I will continue to do this to provide A safety backstop. I will keep a close eye on interest rates and if they start to rise I will move my money out of the F fund. Does this sound like a good strategy?

It is a good plan if it is conservative and realistic related to your financial goals.

It takes money to make money... That said I have been investing 100 percent of my tsp into the market following one of the premium services. It means watching the markets daily and making two or three moves a month. If done correctly you will always beat the G fund and the L incomes. Yes all your money is at risk, but knowing when to bail (stop loss) can make a big difference in how much money you can make. You can usually expect to make 1 - 2% a month. Some years are better than others. In 2012 I made over 12%, over 7 in 2013 and a record for me of over 24% in 2014! It's all about what you are willing to risk and if watching your money or buy and holding is your preference. Good luck with your investments...

Originally Posted by 29year

I’m currently invested 78% in the G fund ( the most conservative) and 22% in the F fund. I will be contributing for 2 more years. I don’t expect to have to draw on this for 7 more years. I would like to know what your opinion is on how I should have my funds invested. I want to play it as safe as possible, but get a better rate of return than I’m getting now(2.78 last year :{). I can tolerate more risk than I am currently since I will have CERS and SS to fall back on. I just can't make up my mind. I realize that your advice is an opinion only and is not binding in any way. I realize that past performance does not guarantee future performance.
Thanks in advance.

Originally Posted by flynaz

It takes money to make money... That said I have been investing 100 percent of my tsp into the market following one of the premium services. It means watching the markets daily and making two or three moves a month. If done correctly you will always beat the G fund and the L incomes. Yes all your money is at risk, but knowing when to bail (stop loss) can make a big difference in how much money you can make. You can usually expect to make 1 - 2% a month. Some years are better than others. In 2012 I made over 12%, over 7 in 2013 and a record for me of over 24% in 2014! It's all about what you are willing to risk and if watching your money or buy and holding is your preference. Good luck with your investments...

Excuse my ignorance but what do you use for this: "one of the premium services".

Also TSP administrators had warned participants several years ago against "day trading" in the TSP. Were they just trying to protect themselves?

In 2006 I started following EBB .... And we were day trading, making inter fund transfers 2 or 3 times a week! I am saying we because there were several folks in my office alone doing this. If you followed EBB then you basically day traded. Now TSP limits your moves to Two times a month and always allows you to move a third time into the G for safety.. I jumped on board with Intrepid Timer from its conception and I am very happy with the results. This is the first year that I actually beat his goal by not following exactly his every move. In the past he has beaten me! But for the most part I follow his every move. I retired at the end of 2012 and plan on doing this for the long term to make my investment grow.

There are several premium services to pick from, just do your homework and be proactive.

Good luck


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Sorry for the bother but my Google search for EBB did not return anything related to financial services.

Originally Posted by Skorcher

Sounds like you are CSRS. In which case you are not as dependant on your TSP to pay the bills when you're retired.
With your time horizon and risk aversion, I would put it all in L-2020 or L-2030 and let the autopilot slowly move more of your TSP to the G fund.

Good advice. I was in L2030 for a few years before I started moving my money around and had pleasant returns.