Likes Likes:  0
Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 13 to 24 of 37

Thread: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

  1. #13

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Some folks believe our current bull rally is only the sixth best so far since 1932. The best gain was posted in a four year span beginning in 1942 of 157.7%. So for the next two years, it wouldn't be without precedent for the S&P 500 to keep rising until it reaches 1745. A similar rise in the Dow would put the index at 16,872. Laszlo Birinyi has said the average length and size of bull markets suggest the SPX will rally to 2854 on 9/2013. This rally should continue another 32 months.

  2.  
  3. #14

    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Pensacola, FL
    Posts
    6,312

    Default Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Frixxxx View Post
    Why do I get the feeling this thread needs to be renamed:

    Guess the Dow - 2016???

    I would hope some basis of judgement/research will soon be following.
    My tea leaves predict that he is probably wrong. On the other hand, my coffee grounds predict that he may be right. I'll have to double-check my crystal ball.

  4.  
  5. #15

    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    6,973

    Default Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    Some folks believe our current bull rally is only the sixth best so far since 1932. The best gain was posted in a four year span beginning in 1942 of 157.7%. So for the next two years, it wouldn't be without precedent for the S&P 500 to keep rising until it reaches 1745. A similar rise in the Dow would put the index at 16,872. Laszlo Birinyi has said the average length and size of bull markets suggest the SPX will rally to 2854 on 9/2013. This rally should continue another 32 months.
    Excellent comparison based on if the economic indicators duplicate the fears and conditions those markets faced.

    I believe that steady growth is not in the future for the next two years....but could be two years AFTER....Based on 6% growth 2016 should usher in a 16,000 no problem.

    But if another predicted correction occurs, all bets off.

    Thanks for keeping us honest Birch!
    THIS IS WHERE I WOULD PUT SOMETHING TO REPRESENT MY THINKING, BUT THEN THEY SHOW UP!
    Tracker =
    100%- I Fund

  6.  
  7. #16

    Default Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Frixxxx View Post
    Based on 6% growth 2016 should usher in a 16,000 no problem.
    Exactly. 16,000 is no real bullish call. That's about 5.5% a year. What happened to the old 11% average?

    Of course 5.5% a year may seem great if we get another debt triggered bear market in the next few years.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #17

    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    6,973

    Default Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Exactly. 16,000 is no real bullish call. That's about 5.5% a year. What happened to the old 11% average?

    Of course 5.5% a year may seem great if we get another debt triggered bear market in the next few years.
    11%/year?

    Here on this site has netted me 11% easily....

    I knew what the thread wanted to do, but I want to show that it is pretty cut and dry on 16K in the Dow....Now let's be grown up and get there!

    I say Dow 18,000 By 2016!
    THIS IS WHERE I WOULD PUT SOMETHING TO REPRESENT MY THINKING, BUT THEN THEY SHOW UP!
    Tracker =
    100%- I Fund

  10.  
  11. #18

    Default Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Was everyone this optimisitic at the start of '08. The mortgage crisis appeared to sneak up on everybody then. I'm wondering if inflation will sneak up on us the same way with the Bernank' s printing of money.


  12.  
  13. #19

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,124

    Talking Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Exactly. 16,000 is no real bullish call. That's about 5.5% a year. What happened to the old 11% average?

    Of course 5.5% a year may seem great if we get another debt triggered bear market in the next few years.
    Nice catch Tom. I was going to say the same thing. But, if you can't say it any better than be quiet... Yuk, yuk...

    Anyway, the mortgage crisis didn't sneak up. It was right in your face by late 2007. Greed kept many of us in the market.

    Inflation won't sneak up on us either. We have to be in equities to stay ahead of that bear. Amoeba should slow him down
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  14.  
  15. #20

    Default Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Even Calpers is revising down their expected return, though not enough probably. I think it's now something around 7% but they seem to accept that's possibly optimistic. Maybe 5% will turn out to be bullish after we get through the current enthusiasm. The real bet should be on what the DOW will be December 24, 2012, if we have the weekend after the 21st.

  16.  
  17. #21

    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    TEXAS
    Posts
    510
    Blog Entries
    12

    Default Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Thank you. The proof will be there...

  18.  
  19. #22

    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    TEXAS
    Posts
    510
    Blog Entries
    12

    Smile Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by FAB1 View Post
    Are you related to a guy named, Birchtree??
    If Birchtree concur, Birchtree most arrived independenly to the same conclusion.

  20.  
  21. #23

    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    TEXAS
    Posts
    510
    Blog Entries
    12

    Smile Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by peterson82 View Post
    Hurray! Welcome to the Autotracker
    Thank you. Autotracker is the place where the bottomline talks and BS walks.

  22.  
  23. #24

    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    TEXAS
    Posts
    510
    Blog Entries
    12

    Unhappy Re: DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Warrenlm View Post
    That's 16,000 in then-year dollars.
    Good point. Probably will mean a flat future to present dollars.

  24.  
Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes