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Thread: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

  1. #433

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    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    LMBF moves to "C" on Monday.

    best-11-29-2014.jpg

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  3. #434

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    The "best fund" strategy uses data from the past month to invest, with the assumption that the next month will be similar. I notice the "best fund" has been moving between G, C and S. How successful have you been by following this strategy?
    Got Beach???

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  5. #435

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by dpmp View Post
    The "best fund" strategy uses data from the past month to invest, with the assumption that the next month will be similar. I notice the "best fund" has been moving between G, C and S. How successful have you been by following this strategy?
    Check out the alternative LMBF thread Alternate LMBF methods

    Thanks to Cactus, it's incredibly comprehensive with returns for LMBF, and a whole slew of variances of the strategy as well.

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  7. #436

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    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Well, two things.

    Here was december's results:
    Dec G=0.18%; F= 0.21%; C=(0.24%); S= 0.99%; I= (4.13%)
    ; LMBF=(1.09%)


    First, Mea culpa! I screwed up by not checking where the LMBF was sitting on Dec 31.
    I thought it was somewhere else-in "S"- and I didn't come look.

    I did not realize it was in "C" until this morning.

    My bad for failing to pay attention.

    Second- I am going to do a tweak to the LMBF system this year.

    If, at the end of the month, two out of three of the stock/bond funds are in negative territory, then I am going to make that as a "sell stocks and move to "G"" instead of a -pure move only to the highest last return. And I am going to avoid the "F" fund as the safety backup- and only use "G".

    This past month was a good example- the "C" fund and the "I" fund were negative, and the "S" fund was only SLIGHTLY postive (less than 1%), but it would have been enough to remain in "S" for January. I thought in fact it was sitting in "S", and didn't realise it had moved to "C" last month, so I screwed up. I had been thnking about those tweaks for a while, and wanted to wait until the end of the year to start making adjustments- but I thought I saw S" was positive in Dec, I thought that is where I was sitting, so onl New Years day I thought hard about whether or not to tamper at all with it. It wasn't until this morning that I actually looked and saw that it was sitting in "C", not "S", and that blew my plans to smitherines. Sorry. I screwed up.

    Anyway- we'll see if that new tweaked formula is any more sucessful. (if 2 out of 3 stock funds are negative- go to safety, and also avoid the "F")

    I don't know if it will or won't. - but I'll try it and find out.

    Remember- none if this is science- it's all "art", and a dash of hope.


    Best of luck to everyone in 2015. If this stuff were easy, we'd all be rich. But we're not. Cause it's not.

    Good luck.

    LMBF moves to "G" as of the COB today. (I know- a day late and a dollar short. )
    Last edited by James48843; 01-05-2015 at 09:22 AM.

  8.  
  9. #437

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Well, two things.

    Here was december's results:
    Dec G=0.18%; F= 0.21%; C=(0.24%); S= 0.99%; I= (4.13%)
    ; LMBF=(1.09%)


    First, Mea culpa! I screwed up by not checking where the LMBF was sitting on Dec 31.
    I thought it was somewhere else-in "S"- and I didn't come look.

    I did not realize it was in "C" until this morning.

    My bad for failing to pay attention.

    Second- I am going to do a tweak to the LMBF system this year.

    If, at the end of the month, two out of three of the stock/bond funds are in negative territory, then I am going to make that as a "sell stocks and move to "G"" instead of a -pure move only to the highest last return. And I am going to avoid the "F" fund as the safety backup- and only use "G".

    This past month was a good example- the "C" fund and the "I" fund were negative, and the "S" fund was only SLIGHTLY postive (less than 1%), but it would have been enough to remain in "S" for January. I thought in fact it was sitting in "S", and didn't realise it had moved to "C" last month, so I screwed up. I had been thnking about those tweaks for a while, and wanted to wait until the end of the year to start making adjustments- but I thought I saw S" was positive in Dec, I thought that is where I was sitting, so onl New Years day I thought hard about whether or not to tamper at all with it. It wasn't until this morning that I actually looked and saw that it was sitting in "C", not "S", and that blew my plans to smitherines. Sorry. I screwed up.

    Anyway- we'll see if that new tweaked formula is any more sucessful. (if 2 out of 3 stock funds are negative- go to safety, and also avoid the "F")

    I don't know if it will or won't. - but I'll try it and find out.

    Remember- none if this is science- it's all "art", and a dash of hope.


    Best of luck to everyone in 2015. If this stuff were easy, we'd all be rich. But we're not. Cause it's not.

    Good luck.

    LMBF moves to "G" as of the COB today. (I know- a day late and a dollar short. )
    Hey James, I missed this earlier post, but that sounds like a neat little tweak. You know Cactus has that "Alternate LMBF" thread where he back tests all sorts of crazy ideas - and I say crazy because he has very patiently tried stuff I've come up with that was, well, kinda crazy....

    I think this idea would be worthy of that research. Maybe post it in that thread and see if he'd be willing to have a go at it when he has the time?

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  11. #438

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    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Last Month's best fund method does an IFT today before noon-

    Going into the "F" fund.

    I throw my hands up in the air.

    Good luck.

    feb-2015.jpg

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  13. #439

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    ... that's by the old rules. The new LMBF should be staying in the G Fund since C & S are negative for the month. Am I missing something here?
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  14.  
  15. #440

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    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Last months best fund moves to "S" this month.

    Good luck.

    a.jpg

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  17. #441

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    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Remember back when I was tracking the "LAST MONTH'S BEST FUND" to know when to be in stocks and when to be on the sidelines?

    I'm going to start another grouping, and see how that one works out.

    This caught my eye a couple of weeks ago- and I didn't say anything then- but it looks interesting today.
    I wish I could back-test it and see what it gives.

    It's the "LAST MONTH's BEST FUND"- but it ONLY USES THE L-Funds vs. teh G fund.

    Here is last month's data:


    Sep
    L-Income
    0.21%
    L-2020
    0.23%
    L2030 0.24% L-2040
    0.22%
    L-2050
    0.21%
    G-Fund
    0.24%


    Had the "Last Months Best FUND" limited to L and G been in effect- we would have switched to "G" last month.

    Pretty crazy, isn't it?


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  19. #442

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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