That's the economy that's going DOWN.
That's the economy that's going DOWN.
The value of the 12 month moving average has been going up since April 2020. That is the trend mentioned here. Those 4 months of double digit unemployment on the heals of the lowest unemployment rates since the early 1960s has had a profound effect on the moving average.
Starting next month these high unemployment numbers are going to drop out of the average, so I would expect the trend to reverse. Those who strictly followed the crossover signal and got back in the market last October have made quite a profit in the mean time, though.
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Here is the unemployment rate for April:According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.
Rate: 6.1% 12 MMA: 7.98% Crossover: rate below 12 MMA Trend: turned, and now going down
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Here is the unemployment rate for May:
According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.
Rate: 5.18% 12 MMA: 7.36% Crossover: rate below 12 MMA Trend: Still going down
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Here is the unemployment rate for June:
Rate: 5.9% 12 MMA: 6.92% Crossover: rate below 12 MMA Trend: Still going down According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Here is the unemployment rate for July:
According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.
Rate: 5.4% 12 MMA: 6.52% Crossover: rate below 12 MMA Trend: Still going down
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Here is the unemployment rate for August:
Rate: 5.2% 12 MMA: 6.25% Crossover: rate below 12 MMA Trend: Still going down According to this system we should be fully invested in the market.
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Here is the unemployment rate for October:
According to this system we should be fully invested in the market.
Rate: 4.6% 12 MMA: 5.81% Crossover: rate below 12 MMA Trend: Still going down
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Don't know where Cactus went, but I just dredged this thread up in my old bookmarks and thought I'd post that the UE rate finally crossed above the 12-month moving average earlier this year.
So a major recession and market sell signal warning is in effect per this method of timing the market...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=44 2365228
https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/
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