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Thread: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

  1. #85

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    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,148

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    The new TAXES will take care of that, have patience, down is on it's way.
    If we keep reducing taxes especially to large corporations and the 1% how do you propose we get anything fixed or built?
    May the force be with us.

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  3. #86

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
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    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    That's the economy that's going DOWN.



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  5. #87

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    I'm a bit confused?
    Unemployment has been going down steadily since last summer.
    Whats going "UP"?
    The value of the 12 month moving average has been going up since April 2020. That is the trend mentioned here. Those 4 months of double digit unemployment on the heals of the lowest unemployment rates since the early 1960s has had a profound effect on the moving average.

    Starting next month these high unemployment numbers are going to drop out of the average, so I would expect the trend to reverse. Those who strictly followed the crossover signal and got back in the market last October have made quite a profit in the mean time, though.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  7. #88

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for April:
    Rate: 6.1%
    12 MMA: 7.98%
    Crossover: rate below 12 MMA
    Trend: turned, and now going down
    According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  9. #89

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for May:
    Rate: 5.18%
    12 MMA: 7.36%
    Crossover: rate below 12 MMA
    Trend: Still going down
    According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  10.  
  11. #90

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for June:
    Rate: 5.9%
    12 MMA: 6.92%
    Crossover: rate below 12 MMA
    Trend: Still going down
    According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%


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  13. #91

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for July:
    Rate: 5.4%
    12 MMA: 6.52%
    Crossover: rate below 12 MMA
    Trend: Still going down
    According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  14.  
  15. #92

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for August:
    Rate: 5.2%
    12 MMA: 6.25%
    Crossover: rate below 12 MMA
    Trend: Still going down
    According to this system we should be fully invested in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  16.  
  17. #93

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for October:
    Rate: 4.6%
    12 MMA: 5.81%
    Crossover: rate below 12 MMA
    Trend: Still going down
    According to this system we should be fully invested in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  18.  
  19. #94

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Don't know where Cactus went, but I just dredged this thread up in my old bookmarks and thought I'd post that the UE rate finally crossed above the 12-month moving average earlier this year.
    So a major recession and market sell signal warning is in effect per this method of timing the market...

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=44 2365228

    https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/

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