Thread: Alternate LMBF methods

Here is the monthly return as of 12/28/18:

Date	G Fund	F Fund	C Fund	S Fund	I Fund
28-Dec-18	0.23%	1.59%	(9.81%)	(11.52%)	(5.23%)

The F Fund is the winner for December so the following IFTs take place before noon Monday, 31-Dec-18:

• LMBF-1 Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
• LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
• LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
• LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
• LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund

Here are the returns for 2018:

	G	F	C	S	I	LMBF-1	C>S	CI>S	SIM	G>F
Jan	0.20%	(1.14%)	5.72%	3.34%	5.00%	5.72%	3.34%	3.34%	5.72%	5.72%
Feb	0.21%	(0.96%)	(3.69%)	(3.79%)	(5.07%)	(3.69%)	(3.79%)	(3.79%)	(3.69%)	(3.69%)
Mar	0.24%	0.65%	(2.55%)	0.69%	(0.76%)	0.24%	0.24%	0.24%	0.24%	0.65%
Apr	0.23%	(0.73%)	0.38%	0.28%	2.01%	(0.73%)	(0.73%)	(0.73%)	(0.73%)	(0.73%)
May	0.24%	0.73%	2.41%	4.85%	(2.13%)	(2.13%)	(2.13%)	4.85%	0.73%	(2.13%)
Jun	0.24%	(0.10%)	0.61%	0.86%	(1.20%)	0.86%	0.86%	0.86%	(0.10%)	0.86%
Jul	0.25%	0.04%	3.72%	1.64%	2.45%	1.64%	1.64%	1.64%	0.04%	1.64%
Aug	0.26%	0.67%	3.26%	4.57%	(1.91%)	3.26%	4.57%	4.57%	0.67%	3.26%
Sep	0.24%	(0.62%)	0.57%	(1.76%)	0.91%	(1.76%)	(1.76%)	(1.76%)	(0.62%)	(1.76%)
Oct	0.26%	(0.78%)	(6.84%)	(10.06%)	(7.94%)	(7.94%)	(7.94%)	(10.06%)	(0.78%)	(7.94%)
Nov	0.26%	0.62%	2.04%	1.92%	(0.13%)	0.26%	0.26%	0.26%	0.26%	0.26%
Dec	0.26%	1.84%	(9.03%)	(10.70%)	(4.82%)	(10.70%)	(10.70%)	(10.70%)	(10.70%)	(10.70%)
YTD	2.91%	0.15%	(4.41%)	(9.26%)	(13.43%)	(15.00%)	(15.95%)	(12.02%)	(9.36%)	(14.35%)

What a disaster this year has been. Not only have all TSP equity Funds finished in the red, almost all LMBF-1 systems finished worse off than any TSP Fund. The only ones that came out ahead was SIM & CI>S which only beat out the I Fund. That's not much to brag about.

Here are the 3 Year Average of our Funds and LMBF-1 systems

3 Year (2016 – 18)	G	F	C	S	I	LMBF-1	C>S	CI>S	SIM	G>F
Mean	2.35%	2.29%	9.81%	8.44%	4.70%	5.50%	4.90%	4.72%	6.21%	5.25%
Standard Deviation	0.44%	1.56%	10.82%	12.54%	15.96%	14.55%	14.80%	11.84%	11.05%	13.98%
Annualized Return	2.35%	2.28%	9.26%	7.67%	3.50%	4.42%	3.78%	4.01%	5.61%	4.25%
Total Return	7.22%	7.01%	30.44%	24.81%	10.86%	13.87%	11.76%	12.53%	17.78%	13.31%

Looks like over the last 3 years you would have been better off Buy & Holding the C or S Funds than any of the LMBF-1 systems.

Here are the 5 Year Average of our Funds and LMBF-1 systems

5 Year (2014 – 18)	G	F	C	S	I	LMBF-1	C>S	CI>S	SIM	G>F
Mean	2.28%	2.90%	8.93%	6.04%	1.66%	0.24%	1.06%	1.32%	2.82%	0.57%
Standard Deviation	0.36%	2.32%	9.31%	10.70%	13.00%	13.39%	13.08%	10.67%	9.87%	12.71%
Annualized Return	2.28%	2.88%	8.53%	5.49%	0.88%	(0.65%)	0.20%	0.75%	2.35%	(0.24%)
Total Return	11.93%	15.25%	50.58%	30.62%	4.49%	(3.21%)	1.01%	3.80%	12.32%	(1.17%)

Looks like over the last 5 years you basically would have been better off Buy & Holding any of the TSP Funds than following the LMBF-1 systems. The only one that came out ahead was "LMBF-1 SIM" which beat the G & I Funds.

Here are the 10 Year Average of our Funds and LMBF-1 systems:

10Year(2009 – 18)	G	F	C	S	I	LMBF-1	C>S	CI>S	SIM	G>F
Mean	2.30%	3.78%	13.70%	14.76%	7.52%	8.11%	10.18%	11.89%	10.10%	8.67%
Standard Deviation	0.47%	3.01%	10.99%	15.69%	14.95%	12.84%	14.16%	14.63%	10.96%	12.49%
Annualized Return	2.30%	3.73%	13.17%	13.68%	6.48%	7.30%	9.21%	10.91%	9.53%	7.89%
Total Return	25.51%	44.27%	244.55%	260.29%	87.38%	102.21%	141.37%	181.66%	148.56%	113.79%

Looks like over the last 10 years you would have been better off Buy & Holding the C or S Funds than any of the LMBF-1 systems. What happened? Well the 2008 crash fell out of our data. Maybe it will take another crash for this system to come out ahead. I Don't know. This year was a disaster and any TSP Fund beat all the LMBF-1 Systems. Is anybody still following LMBF-1? It doesn't seam worth it to me.

I still follow... most of the time but.. long time analysis is bearing out that Alternate LMBF is not bearing fruit. May be time to put it to rest.

For those still following this thread, here are the IFTs for February.

The S Fund is the winner for January so the following IFTs take place before noon eastern tomorrow, 31-Jan-19:

• LMBF-1 Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
• LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
• LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
• LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
• LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund

We all go back to S. This was a rough month to be out of the market as it gave back some of December's losses.

The S Fund is the winner for February so there are no changes for March. All methods continue the S-Fund for March.

Looks like the F Fund is the winner for March. That being the case the following IFTs take place before noon eastern tomorrow, 29-Mar-19:

• LMBF-1 Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
• LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
• LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
• LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
• LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the S Fund to the G Fund

Here is the monthly return as of 4/29/19:

Date	G FUND	F FUND	C FUND	S FUND	I FUND
29-Apr-19	0.20%	(0.13%)	3.95%	3.91%	2.63%

The C Fund is the winner for April so the following IFTs take place before noon Tuesday, 30-Dec-19:

• LMBF-1 Changes from the F Fund to the C Fund
• LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the F Fund until November
• LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
• LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
• LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the F Fund to the C Fund

The F Fund is the winner for May so all the methods are in the F Fund for June.