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Thread: Alternate LMBF methods

  1. #337

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Looks like the I Fund is the winner for June. That being the case the following IFTs will take place before noon Tomorrow, 30-Jun-2020:


    • LMBF-1 Changes from the S Fund to the I Fund
    • LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the F Fund until November
    • LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the S Fund to the I Fund
    • LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the S Fund to the I Fund
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

  2.  
  3. #338

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here are the results for the first half of the year:

    G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Jan 0.17% 1.91% (0.04%) (0.62%) (2.73%) (2.73%) (2.73%) (0.62%) (2.73%) (2.73%)
    Feb 0.13% 1.82% (8.24%) (8.01%) (7.74%) 1.82% 1.82% 1.82% 1.82% 1.82%
    Mar 0.11% (0.64%) (12.40%) (21.40%) (13.87%) (0.64%) (0.64%) (0.64%) (0.64%) (0.64%)
    Apr 0.07% 1.78% 12.81% 15.81% 6.42% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 1.78%
    May 0.06% 0.46% 4.76% 8.79% 4.50% 8.79% 8.79% 8.79% 8.79% 8.79%
    Jun 0.06% 0.63% 1.99% 4.00% 3.44% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
    YTD 0.59% 6.08% (3.15%) (5.85%) (11.08%) 11.41% 11.41% 13.83% 11.41% 13.32%
    Looks like our systems are working to keep us safe this year.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

  4.  
  5. #339

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Looks like the S Fund is the winner for July. That being the case the following IFTs will take place before noon Tomorrow, 31-Jul-2020:


    • LMBF-1 Changes from the I Fund to the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the F Fund until November
    • LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the I Fund to the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the I Fund to the S Fund
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

  6.  
  7. #340

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here is the monthly return as of 8/28/2020:

    Date G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    28-Aug-2020 0.05% (1.05%) 7.41% 7.06% 5.15%

    The C Fund is the winner for August so the following IFTs take place before noon Monday, 31-Aug-30:


    • LMBF-1 Changes from the S Fund to the C Fund
    • LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the S Fund until November
    • LMBF-1 C>S Remains in the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the S Fund to the C Fund
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

  8.  
  9. #341

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here is the monthly return as of 9/29/2020:

    Date G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    29-Sep-2020 0.06% 0.11% (4.59%) (3.52%) (1.93%)
    The F Fund is the winner for Sep so the following IFTs take place before noon today, 30-Sep-2020.

    •LMBF-1 Changes from the C Fund to the F Fund
    •LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the F Fund through October
    •LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the C Fund to the F Fund
    •LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
    •LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the C Fund to the F Fund
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

  10.  
  11. #342

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here is the monthly return as of 10/29/2020:

    Date G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    29-Oct-2020 0.06% (0.35%) (1.48%) 2.53% (3.46%)

    The S Fund is the winner for Oct so the following IFTs take place before noon today, 30-Oct-2020.

    •LMBF-1 Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
    •LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
    •LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
    •LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
    •LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%


  12.  
  13. #343

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here is the monthly return as of 11/27/2020:

    Date G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    27-Nov-2020 0.06% 0.92% 11.44% 19.57% 16.99%
    The S Fund is the winner for November as it was for October, so all our methods stay in the S Fund for another month.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

  14.  
  15. #344

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,180
    Blog Entries
    12

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Just wanted to say thank you for keeping up with this system.

    I think it was McDuck who first was tracking the “last month best fund”, and I was doing it due a while too, but travel forced me to miss the calls too often to keep up, and I dropped the ball on trying to keep posting it.

    I can tell you that after watching this for more than a decade, I’m convinced it really is among the top “systems” ever posted here on TSPTALK. While it doesn’t hit it right on 100% of the time, it HAS done wonders to bail out at key important Times, and to get back in when other ideas haven’t been anywhere near as good.

    This system now is one of my heaviest weighted considerations as I move from active employee , into the realm of retiree. I am so glad that I’ve discovered the LMBF’s trustworthiness to me personally.

    Thanks for keeping it up to date!


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  16.  
  17. #345

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    2,786
    Blog Entries
    45

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    This thread proves to me that there is such thing as momentum in markets. I do not believe markets behave in a "random walk".

  18.  
  19. #346

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    The S Fund is once again the winner for another month. That means all of our systems here enter the new year in the S Fund for January.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

  20.  
  21. #347

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here are the returns for 2020:

    G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Jan 0.17% 1.91% (0.04%) (0.62%) (2.73%) (2.73%) (2.73%) (0.62%) (2.73%) (2.73%)
    Feb 0.13% 1.82% (8.24%) (8.01%) (7.74%) 1.82% 1.82% 1.82% 1.82% 1.82%
    Mar 0.11% (0.64%) (12.40%) (21.40%) (13.87%) (0.64%) (0.64%) (0.64%) (0.64%) (0.64%)
    Apr 0.07% 1.78% 12.81% 15.81% 6.42% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 1.78%
    May 0.06% 0.46% 4.76% 8.79% 4.50% 8.79% 8.79% 8.79% 0.46% 8.79%
    Jun 0.06% 0.63% 1.99% 4.00% 3.44% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 0.63% 4.00%
    Jul 0.06% 1.49% 5.64% 5.71% 2.33% 2.33% 2.33% 5.71% 1.49% 2.33%
    Aug 0.05% (0.81%) 7.19% 7.20% 5.12% 7.20% 7.20% 7.20% (0.81%) 7.20%
    Sep 0.06% (0.03%) (3.80%) (3.04%) (2.60%) (3.80%) (3.04%) (3.04%) (0.03%) (3.80%)
    Oct 0.06% (0.42%) (2.66%) 0.50% (3.97%) (0.42%) (0.42%) (0.42%) (0.42%) (0.42%)
    Nov 0.07% 0.99% 10.95% 18.26% 15.54% 18.26% 18.26% 18.26% 18.26% 18.26%
    Dec 0.07% 0.14% 3.84% 7.24% 4.64% 7.24% 7.24% 7.24% 7.24% 7.24%
    YTD 0.97% 7.50% 18.31% 31.85% 8.17% 48.48% 49.65% 57.95% 26.51% 51.02%

    All of our methods did real well this year. They protected us from the big drop in March and gave us better results than buy and hold.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

  22.  
  23. #348

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here is the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over 3, 5 and 10 years.

    Annualized Return G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    3 Year (2018 – 2020) 2.03% 5.38% 14.13% 15.25% 4.68% 10.13% 8.85% 13.15% 10.64% 11.04%
    5 Year (2016 – 2020) 2.05% 4.57% 15.20% 16.06% 7.99% 12.34% 11.39% 13.13% 11.97% 12.61%
    10 Year (2011 – 2020) 2.04% 4.07% 13.90% 13.32% 5.87% 8.66% 9.43% 11.31% 10.07% 9.39%
    All our methods did real well this year. If you average that over years though, buy and holding the C and/or S Funds produced better returns over time.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

  24.  
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
Alternate LMBF methods
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Alternate LMBF methods
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Alternate LMBF methods
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BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Alternate LMBF methods
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