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Thread: GOLD!

  1. #1

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    Default GOLD!

    This will strengthen the dollar, I think a strong dollar is the key!

    Mark Hulbert

    Jan. 22, 2014, 6:16 a.m. EST
    The incredible gold-interest rate correlation
    Opinion: One model pegs gold’s fair value at $800 an ounce


    And if that yield rises to just 4%, from its current 2.8%, gold will still plunge — to $831.

    Those sobering forecasts come from an econometric formula based on the last decade’s relationship between gold and interest rates. Assuming this past is prologue, the only way for gold to make it back to its all-time high above $1,900 an ounce is for the 10-Year Treasury yield to fall to 1%.
    To be sure, a comprehensive model of gold’s price needs to include more than just interest rates. But, according to Claude Erb, who conducted these statistical analyses, we should not be too quick to reject his simple “behavioral” model relating gold’s price to the 10-Year Treasury yield. Erb is a former commodities portfolio manager for Trust Company of the West and the co-author (with Campbell Harvey, a Duke University finance professor) of a recent National Bureau of Economic Research entitled “The Golden Dilemma.”

    The incredible gold-interest rate correlation - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch
    08/13/2019
    CRUDE Oil
    $57.16 +$2.17


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  3. #2

    Default Re: GOLD!

    Over 2 years ago when we put together our Japan report I mentioned to Tres that I preferred to go long Gold, short Yen. At that time his preferred trade was centered around the JGB options market, and to be long the USD short the Yen. Looking back he was right and I was wrong. The USD has indeed performed better, and likely will continue to outperform in 2014. Although up to this point it's been more a factor of a breather in the gold bull market than USD strength.
    I'm a gold bull, not a gold bug. I do believe that the long term trend for gold is bullish. This current setup clearly has the potential for some fireworks. Maybe nothing happens (doubtful), but the risk/reward setup is rather favourable from where I sit. Heads I win, tails I win.
    Whatever you choose to do with the above information, I encourage readers to never ever confuse "trading for profit" with investing. I'm happy to trade futures contracts, buy gold in the FX spot markets - essentially trade paper in one form or another, but I would NEVER let that obfuscate the fact that I need to hold PHYSICAL GOLD as protection. Timing a profitable trade is like passing gas, it is largely a matter of knowing when it is inappropriate, and acting accordingly!
    The Potential Exists For an Epic Short Squeeze in Physical Gold | Zero Hedge

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