Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 12 of 23

Thread: RIVIAN

  1. #1

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,685
    Blog Entries
    13

    Default RIVIAN

    For the life of me- I have no idea why anyone would pay $145+ for this stock.

    Image1637002533.706055.jpg

    It has ZERO production yet.
    It has ZERO sales yet.
    It has a ton of expenses ahead, and no track record at all.

    So how can anyone put these kinds of value on the stock? It’s a stupid as TESLA five years ago. No sense to me at all. It’s not even close to where Tesla was when Tesla went public. Can anyone tell me WHY anybody would pay this kind of price at this point? Is it simple gambling?


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums


  2.  
  3. #2

    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    1,840
    Blog Entries
    6

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Can anyone tell me WHY anybody would pay this kind of price at this point? Is it simple gambling?


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    My suspicion is EV hype from uneducated young retail investors. $122B market cap for an idea and some blueprints... Nikola is/was also an EV company in pre-production. Their market cap at their all time high was only in the $20-$30B range, so we are talking about 4x-5x the valuation. Now after the fallout from the CEO lies, Nikola has a $5B market cap, which makes Rivian 24x more expensive than current Nikola from a market cap perspective. We could also get into all the EV companies that are actually selling cars and making money that are valued WAY less than this too. Bonkers. I'm not going anywhere near it.

  4.  
  5. #3

    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Minnesota
    Posts
    81

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    The Pro Traders are loving it, as a trade. Retail will run it up and pro's will profit. Tech bubble from the 2000. This house of cards with crash at some point.
    It's going to be ugly, when? Who knows? The rich will get richer and the suckers will have sore rears as the Big boys play it like always.

  6.  
  7. #4

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeck View Post
    The Pro Traders are loving it, as a trade. Retail will run it up and pro's will profit. Tech bubble from the 2000. This house of cards with crash at some point.
    It's going to be ugly, when? Who knows? The rich will get richer and the suckers will have sore rears as the Big boys play it like always.
    You too can get richer...

    You don't have to be rich to get richer...

    Another thought, when equities correct life will be cheaper. Just don't take part in the obvious correction that is looking you right in the eye. That doesn't mean have an 'All Out' allocation, but being 'All In' is pure speculation at this point. Those C-Fund shares at the perfectly evil price of $6.66/share are tastier then ever at $80+. Yum. Time to enjoy a big portion of that repas.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  8.  
  9. #5

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,876
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    ESG hype but this one is backed by Amazon and that lends hope. A perfectly timed IPO just as this administration has outlawed gasoline power automobiles. If some had it their way everyone would drive a government subsidized EV or take Amtrak to work each day.

    Amazing that people are piling in though seeing that Musk just made one of the the biggest insider sells in CEO history with his $6.9B sale last week.

  10.  
  11. #6

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Amazing that people are piling in though seeing that Musk just made one of the the biggest insider sells in CEO history with his $6.9B sale last week.
    You probably know the story better than I do, but didn't Musk sell those shares because he pledged to sell 10% to pay for the tax he owed, based on a Twitter poll?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  12.  
  13. #7

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    My hunch is that RIVN will always feel like it's too high to buy, and then when we do see a pullback we'll think, "I knew this was over-priced, I'll wait and see how low it goes before buying." Then it quickly goes up 50%.

    That's how I feel about Tesla.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #8

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,876
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    didn't Musk sell those shares because he pledged to sell 10% to pay for the tax he owed, based on a Twitter poll?
    There was a twitter poll, yes, but let's not fool ourselves here. If any insider knows when the EV space is getting overheated, it's him. The shares sold number keep going up. He's now unloaded nearly $7B. Is TSLA going to zero? No not very likely, but the man sees a reason to take record setting profits. He's a notorious online troll and was going to sell those shares regardless.

  16.  
  17. #9

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,876
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    My hunch is that RIVN will always feel like it's too high to buy,
    I hear ya. The field is littered with disasters though. RIDE and NKLA had high hopes at first.

    In the case of RIVN, AMZN has 100,000 pre-orders by 2025 which sounds great but the order can be cancelled or modified at any time. (Think supply chain issues causing cancellations.)

    In 2019, RIVN was projecting 20,000-40,000 autos in the first year of production. That number fell just a bit short at around 200 cars right now. They expect to deliver around 1,025 by year end.

    The infrastructure bill is a massive tailwind for anything EV right now.


  18.  
  19. #10

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,876
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    Sorry, a third post in a row. I've been trying to follow this EV sector with an open mind, but everything I read says they are massively overvalued and everyone knows it. Reminiscent to the year 1999 and those students who had e-trade accounts who didn't seem to care whether they graduated or not....

    Charts and momo might work short term but long term the fundamentals will always rule out. From Saxo Bank:

    Assuming cost of capital of 10% (primarily equity financed with a high beta and early-start risk premium) and we play with the thought that this revenue/orders were a perpetuity and it could pass on inflation of 3% in the future, then this cash flow is worth $10bn today, a far cry from the current $153bn valuation.

    While these estimates are crude and not meant to provide the definitive answer to Rivian, it gives an idea of the expectations that the current share price reflects relative to what the company has in terms of orders. Expectations are so high that there is an elevated probability that EV-maker will disappoint investors. Ramping up production of EVs has proven to be difficult with only Tesla and Volkswagen looking to have found a way.
    https://www.home.saxo/content/articl...ng-on-17112021

  20.  
  21. #11

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,876
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    News that the battery performs worse in real life than in a lab environment. Down 15%, I guess the market isn't too thrilled by the insulation in the final build.

    Rivian Automotive Inc's electric vans for e-commerce retailer Amazon.com Inc may have a more limited range than what was previously disclosed, The Information reported on Friday, citing a driver testing the vehicle.

    Rivian had disclosed the vans would have a range of between 120 miles and 150 miles depending on their size. But that range is much lower depending on the weather, the report said.

    Ross Rachey, Amazon's director of Global Fleets and Products, said air conditioning and heating could drain the battery in the vehicles being tested, and these vans did not have the insulation the final vehicles manufactured by Rivian will have.
    https://www.reuters.com/technology/r...on-2021-11-19/

  22.  
  23. #12

    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Minnesota
    Posts
    81

    Default Re: RIVIAN

    Just think Bezos can manipulate this stock price with a tweet just like Musk does with Tesla!
    Great game when you can sit at the table of these billionaires and Wall Street.

  24.  
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
RIVIAN
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
RIVIAN
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
RIVIAN
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
RIVIAN
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes